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中国策略| 证券研究报告 — 宏观及策略
中银国际证券有限责任公司
具备证券投资咨询业务资格

2015 年 7 月 21 日

策略周报

宏观及策略: 中国策略

回归常态仍需时日,但结构性机会已凸显

张戬, PhD



上周市场全线上涨。上证、深证、中小板、创业板均以上涨报收,成交
量较前一周也有所回暖,资金进场意愿增强。具体来看,上涨综指上涨
2.05%,深证成指上涨 8.03%,中小板综指上涨 8.46%,创业板指上涨
9.76%。行业板块国防军工和计算机涨幅居前。



流动性环境存在边际改善空间。随着股市的企稳,央行公开市场操作将
逐步由此前的净投放转向净回笼。上周央行公开市场净回笼资金 450 亿
元,对短期资金利率形成向上的推动作用。央行货币政策的调控重心仍
是维持货币供求的总体宽松,
并在此基础上引导中长期资金价格的逐步
回落。预计未来政策宽松基调有望延续,但对流动性的调节更多地转向
长端,资金面后续依然存在边际改善空间。



统计局:6 月 70 个大中城市新建住宅价格环比 34 个下跌。国家统计局
公布 6 月份住宅销售价格变动情况数据显示,与上月相比,70 个大中城
市中,价格下降的城市有 34 个,上涨的城市有 27 个,持平的城市有 9
个。环比价格变动中,最高涨幅为 7.2%,最低为下降 0.5%。与去年同
月相比,70 个大中城市中,价格下降的城市有 68 个,上涨的城市有 2
个。6 月份,同比价格变动中,最高涨幅为 15.9%,最低为下降 9.8%。



证监会:适时开展深港通业务试点。证监会新闻发言人邓舸表示,证监
会一贯支持深港交易所开展合作,
支持其在沪港通试点经验基础上适时
开展深港通业务试点,促进资本市场健康发展。



央行公安部等发布互联网金融指导意见,
确立互联网支付等监管职责分
工。在监管职责划分上,互联网支付业务由央行负责监管,网络借贷业
务由银监会负责监管,股权众筹融资业务由证监会负责监管,互联网基
金销售业务由证监会负责监管,互联网保险业务由保监会负责监管,互
联网信托业务、互联网消费金融业务由银监会负责监管。



央行:6 月末金融机构外汇占款减少 937 亿元,三个月来首降。央行 17
日发布金融机构人民币外汇占款数据,
中国金融机构 6 月末人民币外汇
占款 29.16 万亿元人民币,较上月减少 936.92 亿元,为三个月来首次环
比下降。也是年内第二次环比下降,此前 3 月份一度环比减少人民币
1,564.76 亿元。



朱光耀:股市监管有错配,干预措施合情合理。中国财政部副部长朱光
耀周六(7 月 18 日)表示,中国股市存在监管错配,但鉴于市场动荡的
程度,中国为了稳定市场所做出的干预措施合情合理。



上周美国股市与经济。
上周美国经济数据全线反弹, 提振联储升息预期。
美国 6 月通胀率符合预期,
但高于前值, 月 CPI 年率从 0.0%升至 0.1%,
6
核心 CPI 年率从 1.7%升至 1.8%。
同时公布的 6 月营建许可为 134.3 万户,
创 2007 年以来最高水平。上周美国首次申请失业救济金人数环比减少
1.5 万人,较此前一周的五个月高位明显回落,显示美国就业市场稳步
好转的趋势未变。上周三大股指全线上涨,道指上涨 1.86%,标普 500
上涨 2.41%,纳指累计上涨 4.25%。

(8610) 6622 9075 jian.zhang@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号:S1300510120023

荆思杰
(8610) 6622 9351 sijie.jing@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号:S1300514040003

曹静怡
(8610)6622 9348 jingyi.cao@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号:S1300514030001

中银国际研究可在中银国际研究网站 ( www.bociresearch.com.)上获取

一周策略思考
在救市初战告捷的背景下,上周市场再度演绎了反复起落的走势,但整体来
看市场波动率正逐渐降低,上证综指与创业板指一周分别累计上涨 2.05%与
9.76%。目前来看,市场情绪正逐渐从此前的极端情况向正常水平收敛。后续
市场能否持续向上仍取决于流动性改善的力度与政策面的配合。目前来看,
当前资金面改善仍依靠救市带来的流动性注入,流动性内生性改善动力偏
弱;此外,市场企稳后投资者情绪仍处于较为脆弱的阶段,市场信心的恢复
仍需要时间。在此背景下,我们认为近期市场出现持续性上涨行情的难度较
大,市场更可能以震荡格局的形式来平复投资者情绪,而个股分化将逐渐加
剧。
降杠杆稳步推进、但资金供需格局趋向稳定。截至上周四,沪深两市融资余
额为 1.42 万亿元,一周减少 196 亿元,降幅明显收窄,融资余额已连续一周稳
定在 1.4 万亿元左右水平,场内急速降杠杆过程基本结束。同时,监管层对场
外配资全力整顿规范的态度依然明确,证监会 12 日发布《关于清理整顿违法
从事证券业务活动的意见》,意见要求各证监局督促证券公司规范信息系统
外部接入行为,并于 2015 年 7 月底前后完成对证券公司,自查情况的核实工
作。在此意见指导下,从米牛等网上配资平台到恒生的 HOMS 系统均发布公告
表示停止增量业务,场外降杠杆进程也在稳步推进过程中。与之相反,产业
资本净增持格局却在延续,多家上市公司控股股东及董监高发布公告增持公
司股份,前期上市公司纷纷发出的增持承诺进入密集落地期;保险资金也在
快速进场,多家上市公司遭保险公司举牌。此外,媒体报道证金公司获商业
银行授信规模约 2 万亿元,而证金公司此前承诺分给 21 家券商的 2,600 亿授信
额度也已分配完毕,可以看到稳定市场的救市军仍在行动。总体来看,“股
灾”结束后,虽然融资金额持续下降,但产业资本净增持格局在延续,同时
证金公司也为市场注入了流动性,资金供需格局正在逐渐趋以平衡,但未来
资金面改善的力度仍将主要取决于市场情绪与风险偏好恢复带来的增量资金
再度入场,单纯依靠“救市”带来的流动性改善不可持续。
经济 L 型拐点得到确认。6 月出口、投资、消费均有所回升,其中,出口增速
回升较为明显,由上月的-2.8%升至 2.8%,固定资产投资和社会消费品零售增
速也分别较 5 月回升 1.7 和 0.5 个点至 11.6%和 10.6%。在三大需求带动下 6 月
工业增加值增速大幅回升 0.7 个点至 6.8% 6 月发电量较 5 月小幅回升至 0.5%


但经济需求端偏弱的格局并未明显变化,制造业投资和地产投资仍然偏弱。
虽然后续地产投资企稳是大概率事件,但其回升的力度预计较为有限,而产
能过剩和工业领域持续通缩使得制造业投资难以有效逆转,这导致整体投资
向上的弹性仍较弱。后续经济能否出现超预期复苏的关键仍在于政策放松的
力度是否进一步加大,我们认为前期推出的稳增长项目将进入贯彻落实阶
段,对经济将起到一定的支撑作用,但货币政策、财政政策放松力度进一步
加大的可能性也并不大,目前来看整体经济延续 L 型复苏的可能性较大。

2015 年 7 月 21 日

策略周报

2

宏观流动性对市场底部仍具支撑作用。6 月社会融资规模为 1.86 万亿元,略低
于去年同期的 1.97 万亿元,自 2 季度以来呈逐月改善态势。从结构来看,表
内信贷继续回升,6 月新增人民币贷款达到 1.28 万亿元,成为拉动社融反弹的
主要力量。而受到社会融资活跃度提升的正面影响,6 月 M2 增速也从 5 月份
的 10.8%回升至 6 月份的 11.8%,宏观流动性继续改善。在目前经济下行压力
依然较大的背景下,管理层再次祭起增量的大旗颇显无奈,但客观上却带来
短期的刺激效应,这一趋势在货币政策不出现明显改变的情况下可能仍会延
续,此外,媒体报道央行向国开行注资 480 亿美元,注资后国开行的潜在放贷
能力将提高,因此短期内宏观流动性持续宽松对于市场的底部区间存在较强
支撑作用。但需注意的是,股灾对宏观流动性的负面影响在 6 月份中体现得并
不明显,这需要在 7 月份的数据中继续观察。
创业板龙头公司中报业绩大幅攀升。截至 2015 年 7 月 16 日,创业板 482 家公
司公布了 2015 中报业绩预告(仅有 2 家公司未公布),我们选取 430 家可比
公司口径进行统计,发现 2015 年 2 季度创业板公司净利润同比增长 31.3%,大
幅好于 2015 年 1 季度的 11.4%。如果剔除盈利占比较大的东方财富,创业板公
司 2015 年 2 季度净利润同比增长 23.4%,亦较 2015 年 1 季度的 8.8%回升明显。
具体来看,创业板龙头公司业绩大幅攀升是带动创业板整体盈利回升的主要
动力,而 TMT 等创业板权重行业业绩亦回升明显。
希腊危机告一段落、海外黑天鹅风险暂解。欧央行 7 月 16 日的议息会议宣布
对希腊银行体系的紧急贷款额度提高 9 亿欧元 这意味着已经停业半个多月的

希腊银行逐渐恢复运营的基础初步形成。虽然仍不排除希腊问题年内再起风
波的可能性,但目前来看,欧洲今年最糟糕的时点已经过去,希腊问题的缓
和显著提振国际市场投资者情绪,也有助于提升投资者对于新兴市场风险偏
好。
市场暂时难现趋势性行情,建议保持波段操作策略。在股市维稳初战告捷的
背景下,上周市场呈现出从报复性反弹到深度调整再到逐渐平稳再度反弹的
走势。目前来看,市场基本面支撑动力仍不强劲,市场走势更多受政策和流
动性逻辑驱动:一方面,未来资金面改善的力度将主要取决于市场情绪与风
险偏好恢复带来的增量资金再度入场,单纯依靠救市带来的流动性注入效果
不可持续;另一方面,市场企稳后投资者情绪仍处于较为脆弱的阶段,市场
信心的恢复仍需要时间。我们认为近期市场出现持续性上涨行情的难度较
大,市场更可能以震荡格局的形式来平复投资者情绪,而个股分化将逐渐加
剧。策略操作上建议投资者按照波段操作思维,大跌不惧,大涨不追,并逐
渐增加对中期结构性优势板块的配置。
配置建议:上周股市初步反弹中行业个股表现方面呈现无脑抢跌的多板块和个
股的行情,或者换种我们更熟悉的说法就是前期涨幅大的板块和品种。我们
从看反弹的第一天即开始强调这种风格出现的概率非常大。后续如果反弹延
续这种风格大概率会延续,但经过一轮暴跌后我们预期风险偏好短期会有所
下降,再加上进入中报披露期,因此经过短暂无脑抢低价筹码后,预计投资
者对基本面的关注会逐步在股价上有所体现,我们预计 TMT、高端装备(电
力设备、军工、机械)以及医药、农业、餐饮、轻工等板块仍会领涨,考虑
到业绩、政策及弹性等因素后我们重点推荐电力设备、军工、医药、农业、
电子元器件、餐饮旅游、传媒以及航空和新能源汽车板块。

2015 年 7 月 21 日

策略周报

3

数据跟踪与解读
指数表现与估值

成交金额:上证综合指数 (右轴)

上证综合指数 (左轴)

成交金额:深证成份指数 (右轴)

06/15

05/15

1,000
04/15

0

2,000

02/15
03/15

06/15

05/15

04/15

02/15
03/15

01/15

12/14

11/14

10/14

09/14

2,000

3,000

01/15

4,000

4,000

12/14

6,000

5,000

11/14

8,000

6,000

10/14

10,000

(亿元)
7,000

09/14

12,000

(点)
19,000
18,000
17,000
16,000
15,000
14,000
13,000
12,000
11,000
10,000
9,000
8,000
7,000
6,000

08/14

(亿元)
14,000

08/14

07/14

(点)
5,500
5,000
4,500
4,000
3,500
3,000
2,500
2,000
1,500

图表 2. 深证成指表现:上周上涨 8.03%

07/14

图表 1. 上证综指表现:上周上涨 2.05%

0

深证成份指数 (左轴)

成交金额:中小板综指 (右轴)

中小板综指 (左轴)

资料来源:万得,中银国际研究

成交金额:创业板指数 (右轴)

06/15

05/15

04/15

03/15

02/15

01/15

12/14

11/14

10/14

09/14

(点)
4,200
4,000
3,800
3,600
3,400
3,200
3,000
2,800
2,600
2,400
2,200
2,000
1,800
1,600
1,400
1,200
1,000

08/14

(亿元)
4,800
4,500
4,200
3,900
3,600
3,300
3,000
2,700
2,400
2,100
1,800
1,500
1,200
900
600
300
0

07/14

06/15

05/15

04/15

02/15
03/15

01/15

12/14

07/14

(点)
19,000
18,000
17,000
16,000
15,000
14,000
13,000
12,000
11,000
10,000
9,000
8,000
7,000
6,000
5,000
4,000

11/14

图表 4. 创业板指表现:上周上涨 9.76%

10/14

图表 3. 中小板综指表现:上周上涨 8.46%

09/14

资料来源:万得,中银国际研究

08/14

资料来源:万得,中银国际研究

(亿元)
1,100
1,000
900
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0

创业板指数 (左轴)

资料来源:万得,中银国际研究

2015 年 7 月 21 日

策略周报

4

图表 5. 年初至今各指数涨跌幅
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%

89.11%

60.08%

54.78%

22.34%

创业板指

中小板指

深证成指

上证综指

资料来源:万得,中银国际研究

图表 6. 年初至今各板块涨跌幅
140%
120%
100%
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
非银行金融

银行

煤炭

有色金属

石油石化

电力及公用事业

建材

钢铁

食品饮料

房地产

建筑

综合

汽车

商贸零售

交通运输

家电

国防军工

医药

基础化工

电力设备

农林牧渔

机械

纺织服装

电子元器件

轻工制造

传媒

餐饮旅游

通信

计算机

-20%

资料来源:万得,中银国际研究

图表 7. 上周概念板块表现前 20 名
30%
25%
20%
15%

太阳能发电指数

3D打印指数

4G指数

宽带提速指数

稀土永磁指数

生物疫苗指数

移动支付指数

智能物流指数

物联网指数

污水处理指数

网络彩票指数

创投指数

卫星导航指数

养老产业指数

IPV6指数

网络安全指数

云计算指数

智能IC卡指数

通用航空指数

0%

航母指数

10%
5%

资料来源: 万得,中银国际研究

2015 年 7 月 21 日

策略周报

5

2015 年 7 月 21 日

资料来源:万得,中银国际研究

策略周报

2015-07-17

2015-07-10

2015-07-03

2015-06-26

2015-06-19

2015-06-12

2015-06-05

2015-05-29

2015-05-22

2015-05-15

2015-05-08

2,140

2015-05-01

( 点)
18,400
18,200
18,000
17,800
17,600
17,400
17,200
17,000
16,800

2015-04-24

图表 10. 道琼斯工业平均指数表现:上周上涨 1.84%

2015-04-17

2015-07-17

2015-07-10

2015-07-03

2015-06-26

2015-06-19

2015-06-12

2015-06-05

2015-05-29

2015-05-22

2015-05-15

2015-05-08

2015-05-01

180
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
交通运输

房地产

建材

汽车

建筑装饰

建筑材料

综合行业

电力及公用事业

机械

商业贸易
餐饮旅游

有色金属

房地产

传媒

医药

轻工制造

商贸零售

基础化工

电子元器件

纺织服装

电力设备

农林牧渔

通信

计算机

国防军工

餐饮旅游

(倍)

交通运输

图表 9. 各板块最新估值所处历史位置
综合

资料来源: 万得,中银国际研究

公用事业

医药生物

轻工制造

纺织服装

食品饮料

家用电器

电子元器件

有色金属

黑色金属

化工

采掘

农林牧渔

35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
-5%
-10%

2015-04-24

2015-04-17

石油石化
煤炭
建筑

计算机
传媒
通信
银行

机械设备

汽车

非银行金融

银行

食品饮料

钢铁

国防军工

非银金融

家电

电气设备

图表 8. 上周各板块指数涨跌幅

资料来源: 万得,中银国际研究

全球市场

图表 11. 标准普尔 500 指数表现:上周上涨 2.41%

( 点)

2,120

2,100

2,080

2,060

2,040

2,020

2,000

资料来源:万得,中银国际研究

6

日经225

2015 年 7 月 21 日

资料来源:万得,中银国际研究

策略周报

新加坡海峡指数

MSCI新兴市场

英国富时100

美国标普500

孟买SENSEX30

巴西IBOVESPA

澳洲标普200

MSCI全球

MSCI发达市场

香港恒生指数

韩国综合指数

西班牙IBEX35

中国深证成指

日经225

德国DAX

2015-07-03
2015-07-10
2015-07-17

2015-07-06
2015-07-15

2015-06-19

2015-06-12

2015-06-05

2015-05-29

2015-05-22

2015-05-15

2015-05-08

2015-05-01

2015-04-24

2015-04-17

2015-06-27

图表 14. 标普 500VIX 指数下降

2015-06-26

资料来源:万得,中银国际研究

2015-06-18

2015-06-09

2015-05-31

2015-05-22

2015-05-13

2015-05-04

2015-04-25

2015-04-16

2015-04-07

2015-03-29

2015-03-20

2015-03-11

155
150
145
140
135
130
125
120
115
110

法国CAC40

9%
8%
7%
6%
5%
4%
3%
2%
1%
0%
-1%

2015-03-02

资料来源:万得,中银国际研究

2015-02-21

2015-07-17

2015-07-10

2015-07-03

( 点)

中国上证综指

图表 15. 全球主要市场一周涨跌
2015-02-12

2015-02-03

2015-01-25

2015-01-16

2015-06-26

2015-06-19

2015-06-12

2015-06-05

2015-05-29

2015-05-22

2015-05-15

2015-05-08

2015-05-01

2015-04-24

图表 12. 纳斯达克综合指数表现:上周上涨 4.25%

意大利指数

巴西IBOVESPA

MSCI新兴市场

英国富时100

2015-01-07

24
22
20
18
16
14
12
10

中国上证综指

香港恒生指数

新加坡海峡指数

韩国综合指数

美国标普500

MSCI 全球

MSCI发达市场

孟买SENSEX30

德国DAX

澳洲标普200

意大利指数

西班牙IBEX35

2015-04-17

5,300
5,200
5,100
5,000
4,900
4,800
4,700
4,600
4,500

法国CAC40

中国深证成指

图表 13. 上周恒生 AH 股溢价指数下降
( 点)

美国:标准普尔500波动率指数(VIX)

资料来源:万得,中银国际研究

图表 16 . 全球主要市场年初至今涨跌

30%
25%

20%
15%
10%
5%

0%
-5%

资料来源:万得,中银国际研究

7

0

2015 年 7 月 21 日

SHIBOR:隔夜

SHIBOR:1周

资料来源:万得,中银国际研究

策略周报

17-07-15

10-07-15

03-07-15

4

3

2

1

SHIBOR:1个月

0

GC001:加权平均

2015-07-08

2015-06-24

2015-06-10

2015-05-27

2015-05-13

2015-04-29

2015-04-15

1,250

1,200

17-07-15

5
2015-04-01

1,300

10-07-15

(% )

03-07-15

6

26-06-15

COMEX黄金

19-06-15

图表 21. SHIBOR 隔夜利率上行

12-06-15

资料来源:万得,中银国际研究

05-06-15

布伦特原油

2015-03-18

(美元/盎司)
1,350

65

2015-03-04

( 美元/桶)
70

2015-02-18

55

2015-02-04

60

2015-01-21

图表 19. 上周原油价格下跌

2015-01-07

2015-07-08

2015-06-24

2015-06-10

2015-05-27

2015-05-13

2015-04-29

2015-04-15

2015-04-01

资料来源:万得,中银国际研究

29-05-15

5,000

2015-03-18

新西兰元兑美元

欧元兑美元

澳元兑美元

美元兑瑞郎

美元兑港币

美元兑人民币

英镑兑美元

美元兑新加坡元

美元兑日元

美元指数

美元兑加元

美元兑新加坡元

美元指数

美元兑加元

美元兑瑞郎

美元兑港币

美元兑日元

澳元兑美元

欧元兑美元

新西兰元兑美元

-10%
-15%

-4%

22-05-15

1,100

2015-03-04

0%

-5%

-2%
-3%

15-05-15

40
2015-02-18

美元兑人民币

0%

-1%

08-05-15

5,500

2015-02-04

英镑兑美元

15%

2%
1%

01-05-15

50

1,150

2015-01-21

3%

24-04-15

45

2015-01-07

图表 17. 全球主要汇率一周涨跌

17-04-15

NYMEX轻质油

26-06-15

19-06-15

12-06-15

05-06-15

29-05-15

22-05-15

15-05-15

08-05-15

01-05-15

24-04-15

17-04-15

主要汇率
图表 18. 全球主要汇率年初至今涨跌
10%
5%

-20%

资料来源:万得,中银国际研究

大宗商品
图表 20. 上周黄金下跌、期铜价格维持低位
( 美元/盎司)
7,000
6,500

6,000

LME3个月铜 (右轴)

资料来源:万得,中银国际研究

利率与汇率
图表 22. 上交所回购利率平稳

20

(% )

15

10

5

GC007:加权平均

资料来源:万得,中银国际研究

8

(% )
4.0
3.8
3.6
3.4
3.2
3.0
2.8
2.6

2015 年 7 月 21 日

地方政府债到期收益率:3年

资料来源:万得,中银国际研究

策略周报

17-07-15

10-07-15

03-07-15

26-06-15

19-06-15

12-06-15

05-06-15

29-05-15

22-05-15

15-05-15

08-05-15

01-05-15

地方政府债到期收益率:5年

3.2

金融债到期收益率:3年

13-07-15

06-07-15

资料来源:万得,中银国际研究

图表 27.地方债到期收益率上行

29-06-15

资料来源:万得,中银国际研究
17-07-15

10-07-15

03-07-15

26-06-15

19-06-15

12-06-15

银行间回购加权利率:1天

22-06-15

15-06-15

资料来源:万得,中银国际研究

图表 25.国债收益率上涨

05-06-15

29-05-15

22-05-15

15-05-15

08-05-15

01-05-15

资料来源:万得,中银国际研究

08-06-15

01-06-15

25-05-15

18-05-15

固定利率国债到期收益率:1年
固定利率国债到期收益率:2年
固定利率国债到期收益率:10年

11-05-15

4.3
4.0
3.7
3.4
3.1
2.8
2.5
2.2
1.9
1.6

04-05-15

银行间同业拆借加权利率:7天

24-04-15

17-07-15

10-07-15

03-07-15

26-06-15

19-06-15

12-06-15

05-06-15

29-05-15

22-05-15

15-05-15

08-05-15

01-05-15

24-04-15

17-04-15

银行间同业拆借加权利率:1天

0

17-04-15

17-07-15

10-07-15

03-07-15

26-06-15

19-06-15

12-06-15

05-06-15

29-05-15

22-05-15

15-05-15

08-05-15

01-05-15

(% )

27-04-15

17-07-15

10-07-15

03-07-15

26-06-15

19-06-15

12-06-15

05-06-15

29-05-15

22-05-15

15-05-15

08-05-15

01-05-15

24-04-15

17-04-15

图表 23. 银行间同业拆借利率短端上行

20-04-15

(% )
4.2
3.9
3.6
3.3
3.0
2.7
2.4
2.1
1.8
1.5

24-04-15

17-04-15

6
5
4
3
2
1
0

24-04-15

17-04-15

图表 24. 银行间回购加权利率短端上行
6
(% )

5

4

3

2

1

银行间回购加权利率:7天

图表 26.央票到期收益率上行
(% )

央行票据到期收益率:1个月
央行票据到期收益率:3个月

图表 28. 金融债到期收益率略微上行

4.4
(% )

4.2

4.0

3.8

3.6

3.4

金融债到期收益率:5年

资料来源:万得,中银国际研究

9

0

投放量 (左轴)

2015 年 7 月 21 日
回笼量 (左轴)

160,000,000
140,000,000
120,000,000
100,000,000
80,000,000
60,000,000
40,000,000
20,000,000
0

策略周报

6.10

净投放量 (右轴)

资料来源:万得,中银国际研究

沪市:融资融券余额 (左轴)

2015-4-1

(万元)

深市:融资融券余额 (左轴)

2015-7-5 2015-7-12 2015-7-19 2015-7-26 2015-8-2

2015-7-8

2015-6-24

2015-6-10

2015-5-27

2015-5-13

2015-4-29

2015-4-15

500

2015-3-18

1,000

2015-3-4

1,500

2015-2-18

2,000

2015-2-4

2,500

(亿元)
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
0
(500)
(1,000)
(1,500)
(2,000)
(2,500)

2015-1-7

图表 29. 上周央行公开市场净回笼 450 亿

2015-1-21

(亿元)

04/15
04/15
04/15
04/15
05/15
05/15
05/15
05/15
05/15
05/15
05/15
05/15
06/15
06/15
06/15
06/15
06/15
06/15
06/15
07/15
07/15
07/15
07/15

3,000

2014-12-20 - 2014-12-26
2014-12-27 - 2015-01-02
2015-01-03 - 2015-01-09
2015-01-10 - 2015-01-26
2015-01-17 - 2015-01-23
2015-01-24 - 2015-01-30
2015-01-31 - 2015-02-06
2015-02-07 - 2015-02-13
2015-02-21 - 2015-02-27
2015-02-28 - 2015-03-06
2015-03-07 - 2015-03-13
2015-03-14 - 2015-03-20
2015-03-21 - 2015-03-27
2015-03-28 - 2015-04-03
2015-04-04 - 2015-04-10
2015-04-11 - 2015-04-17
2015-04-18 - 2015-04-24
2015-04-25- 2015-05-01
2015-05-02- 2015-05-08
2015-05-09- 2015-05-15
2015-05-16- 2015-05-22
2015-05-23- 2015-05-29
2015-05-30- 2015-06-05
2015-06-06- 2015-06-12
2015-06-13- 2015-06-19
2015-06-20- 2015-06-26
2015-06-27- 2015-07-03
2015-07-04- 2015-07-10
2015-07-11- 2015-07-17

图表 30. 上周美元兑人民币中间价平稳
6.28

6.26

6.45

6.24

6.22

6.40

6.20

6.35

6.18

6.16

6.30

6.14

6.12

6.25

6.20

中间价:美元兑人民币 (左轴)
即期汇率:美元兑人民币 (左轴)
美元兑人民币:NDF:12个月 (右轴)

资料来源:万得,中银国际研究

股票市场资金流动

图表 31. 上周融资融券余额微升

(万元)
260,000,000
210,000,000

160,000,000

110,000,000

60,000,000

总余额 (右轴)

资料来源: 万得,中银国际研究

解禁与融资

图表 32. 本周限售股解禁市值增加

(万元)
25,000,000

20,000,000

15,000,000

10,000,000

5,000,000

0

2015-8-9 2015-8-16

资料来源: 万得,中银国际研究

10

图表 33.解禁股票明细
变动后(万股)
代码
300128.CH
300337.CH
002097.CH
002292.CH
000010.CH
603009.CH
601028.CH
300339.CH
002313.CH
002480.CH
002512.CH
300332.CH
002426.CH
000597.CH
000967.CH
600422.CH
600690.CH

简称

解禁日期

锦富新材
银邦股份
山河智能
奥飞动漫
深华新
北特科技
玉龙股份
润和软件
日海通讯
新筑股份
达华智能
天壕节能
胜利精密
东北制药
上风高科
昆药集团
青岛海尔

2015-7-20
2015-7-20
2015-7-20
2015-7-20
2015-7-20
2015-7-20
2015-7-20
2015-7-20
2015-7-21
2015-7-21
2015-7-21
2015-7-21
2015-7-21
2015-7-21
2015-7-22
2015-7-23
2015-7-23

解禁数量
(万股)
498.60
22,360.80
13,815.00
88.41
4,977.25
806.02
66.00
9,258.30
7,702.50
7,120.40
70.84
254.25
18,472.91
10,678.62
2,767.38
16.51
488.08

解禁市值
(万元)
9,129.37
440,954.98
182,081.70
3,346.48
44,944.55
23,487.31
667.26
404,402.54
116,538.83
68,355.81
2,205.93
5,707.91
293,165.02
103,582.59
44,444.15
611.07
6,935.62

总股本

流通 A 股

50,013.01
37,360.00
75,532.50
126,388.03
58,806.98
10,667.00
78,623.78
28,461.68
31,200.00
64,536.83
35,428.21
32,905.00
98,554.91
47,465.51
30,666.65
34,113.02
609,225.03

30,655.40
37,294.75
62,939.23
64,809.65
40,792.99
3,473.02
70,053.50
22,230.68
31,200.00
62,521.20
17,035.83
31,622.23
59,094.82
43,854.91
27,343.88
34,045.16
547,856.31

占比(%) 解禁股份类型
61.29
99.83
83.33
51.28
69.37
32.56
89.10
78.11
100.00
96.88
48.09
96.10
59.96
92.39
89.16
99.80
89.93

股权激励限售股份
首发原股东限售股份
定向增发机构配售股份
股权激励限售股份
股权分置限售股份
首发原股东限售股份
股权激励限售股份
首发原股东限售股份
首发原股东限售股份
定向增发机构配售股份
追加承诺限售股份上市流通
股权激励限售股份
定向增发机构配售股份
定向增发机构配售股份
定向增发机构配售股份
股权激励限售股份
股权激励限售股份

资料来源: 万得,中银国际研究

二级市场交易情况
图表 35. 截至 7 月 10 日,新增股票与基金账户数较上周下降

2014-8-15
2014-8-29
2014-9-12
2014-9-26
2014-10-10
2014-10-24
2014-11-7
2014-11-21
2014-12-5
2014-12-19
2014-12-31
2015-1-16
2015-1-30
2015-2-13
2015-2-27
2015-3-13
2015-3-27
2015-4-10
2015-4-24
2015-5-8
2015-5-22
2015-6-5
2015-6-19
2015-7-3

(户)

7,000,000
6,000,000
5,000,000
4,000,000
3,000,000
2,000,000
1,000,000
0

沪深合计:新增股票账户数

沪深合计:新增基金开户数

资料来源: 万得,中银国际研究

图表 36. 截至 7 月 10 日,证券交易结算余额较上周微升
40,000

( 亿元)

(% )

30,000
20,000
0

2014-8-15
2014-8-29
2014-9-12
2014-9-26
2014-10-10
2014-10-24
2014-11-7
2014-11-21
2014-12-5
2014-12-19
2014-12-31
2015-1-16
2015-1-30
2015-2-13
2015-2-27
2015-3-13
2015-3-27
2015-4-10
2015-4-24
2015-5-8
2015-5-22
2015-6-5
2015-6-19
2015-7-3

10,000

证券市场交易结算资金日平均余额 (左轴)

35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0

当周参与交易的有效账户占比 (右轴)

资料来源: 万得,中银国际研究

2015 年 7 月 21 日

策略周报

11

宏观经济数据跟踪与预测

GDP:累计同比

CPI:当月同比

GDP:当季同比

05-15

03-15

01-15

11-14

03-15
05-15

11-14
01-15

09-14

05-14
07-14

01-14
03-14

11-13

07-13
09-13

03-13
05-13

01-13

6.8

09-12
11-12

7.0

09-14

7.2

07-14

7.4

05-14

7.6

03-14

7.8

01-14

8.0

(% )
3.5
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
(0.5)
(1.0)
(1.5)

09-13

(% )
8.2

11-13

图表 38. 6 月 CPI 同比增长 1.40%,环比持平

07-13

图表 37. 2015 年 2 季度 GDP 同比增长 7.0%

CPI:环比

资料来源:万得,中银国际研究

资料来源:万得,中银国际研究

图表 39. 6 月 PPI 下降 4.8 % ,环比下降 0.4%

图表 40. 6 月中采制造业 PMI 为 50.2

(% )

(% )

1

52.0

0

51.5

(1)

51.0

(2)

50.5

(3)

50.0

(4)

05-15

03-15

01-15

11-14

09-14

07-14

05-14

03-14

01-14

11-13

09-13

05-15

03-15

01-15

09-14

11-14

PPI:全部工业品:环比

49.0

07-13

PPI:全部工业品:当月同比

07-14

05-14

03-14

01-14

11-13

09-13

49.5

07-13

(5)

资料来源:万得,中银国际研究

资料来源:万得,中银国际研究

图表 41. 6 月工业增加值同比涨 6.8%,
发电量同比上升 0.5%

图表 42. 6 月新开工面积降幅缩窄,销售面积同比上升

02-11
05-11
08-11
11-11
02-12
05-12
08-12
11-12
02-13
05-13
08-13
11-13
02-14
05-14
08-14
11-14
02-15
05-15
产量:发电量:当月同比(右轴)
工业增加值:当月同比(左轴)

资料来源:万得,中银国际研究

2015 年 7 月 21 日

(% )
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
(10)
(20)
(30)

02-11
05-11
08-11
11-11
02-12
05-12
08-12
11-12
02-13
05-13
08-13
11-13
02-14
05-14
08-14
11-14
02-15
05-15

(% )
24
22
20
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4

(% )
25
20
15
10
5
0
(5)
(10)
(15)

房屋新开工面积:累计同比

商品房销售面积:累计同比

资料来源:万得,中银国际研究

策略周报

12

图表 43. 6 月 M2 同比增长 11.8%

图表 44. 6 月社会融资总量为 18,581 亿元

(% )

( 倍)

15

4.4

14

4.2

13
12

4.0

25,000

150,000

20,000
15,000

100,000

10,000

社会融资总量:累计值 (右轴)

货币乘数 (右轴)

0

05/15

03/15

01/15

11/14

09/14

07/14

05/14

03/14

01/14

0

3.6

11/13

10-13
11-13
12-13
01-14
02-14
03-14
04-14
05-14
06-14
07-14
08-14
09-14
10-14
11-14
12-14
01-15
02-15
03-15
04-15
05-15
06-15
M2:同比

50,000

5,000
09/13

3.8

10

07/13

11

9

( 亿元)
200,000

( 亿元)
30,000

社会融资总量:当月值 (左轴)

资料来源:万得,中银国际研究

资料来源:万得,中银国际研究

图表 45. 6 月固定资产投资同比增长 11.4%

图表 46. 6 月社会消费品零售总额同比增长 10.6%
(% )

(% )
1.6
1.4
1.2
1.0
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.0

(% )
24
22
20
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4

15
14
13
12
11
10
9

07-13
08-13
09-13
10-13
11-13
12-13
01-14
02-14
03-14
04-14
05-14
06-14
07-14
08-14
09-14
10-14
11-14
12-14
01-15
02-15
03-15
04-15
05-15
06-15

07-13
08-13
09-13
10-13
11-13
12-13
01-14
02-14
03-14
04-14
05-14
06-14
07-14
08-14
09-14
10-14
11-14
12-14
01-15
02-15
03-15
04-15
05-15
06-15

(% )
24
22
20
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4

固定资产投资累计同比 (左轴)
制造业投资累计同比 (右轴)
房地产开发投资累计同比 (右轴)

社会消费品零售总额:当月同比 (左轴)
社会消费品零售总额:环比:季调 (右轴)

资料来源:万得,中银国际研究

资料来源:万得,中银国际研究

图表 47. 6月进口同比下降 6.1%,出口同比上升 2.8%

图表 48.6 月外汇占款 减少 936.92 亿元
(% )
50
40
30

(亿元)
8,000
6,000

20

4,000

10

2,000

0
(10)

0

资料来源:万得,中银国际研究

2015 年 7 月 21 日

06/15

12/14

06/14

12/13

06/13

12/12

06/12

12/11

06/11

12/10

06/10

12/09

06/09

进口金额:当月同比 (右轴)

12/08

进出口金额:当月同比

出口金额:当月同比 (右轴)

(4,000)

06/08

贸易差额:当月值 (左轴)

(2,000)

(30)

12/07

05/15

03/15

01/15

11/14

09/14

07/14

05/14

03/14

01/14

11/13

(20)
09/13

07/13

( 亿美元)
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
(100)
(200)
(300)

金融机构新增外汇占款

资料来源:万得,中银国际研究

策略周报

13

中观周期品数据
图表 50.螺纹钢价格继续下跌

螺纹钢库存同比 (左轴)

05-15

02-15

11-14

08-14

05-14

02-14

11-13

08-13

05-13

02-13

2013

11-12

2012

08-12

2011
2015

( 元/吨)
6,000
5,500
5,000
4,500

05-12

2010
2014

(% )
40
30
20
10
0
(10)
(20)
(30)
(40)
(50)

02-12

01/09
01/09
02/09
02/09
03/09
03/09
04/09
04/09
05/09
05/09
05/09
06/09
06/09
07/09
07/09
08/09
08/09
09/09
09/09
10/09
10/09
10/09
11/09
11/09
12/09
12/09

( 元/吨)
430
410
390
370
350
330
310
290
270
250

11-11

图表 49.水泥价格继续下滑

4,000
3,500
3,000
2,500
2,000

螺纹钢平均价 (右轴)

资料来源:万得,中银国际研究

资料来源:万得,中银国际研究

图表 51. 煤价持续弱势

图表 52. 农产品价格指数较上周上升

07-15

06-15

05-15

04-15

03-15

02-15

01-15

12-14

11-14

04-15

01-15

10-14

07-14

04-14

01-14

10-13

07-13

04-13

01-13

10-12

山西优混

10-14

(% )
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
(1)
(2)
(3)
(4)
07-12

04-12

( 元/吨)
1,200
1,100
1,000
900
800
700
600
500
400
300

农产品批发价格总指数同比

柳林4号焦煤

菜篮子产品批发价格指数同比

资料来源:万得,中银国际研究

资料来源:万得,中银国际研究

欧美国债市场
图表 54. 上周欧洲各国国债收益率上升

美国:国债收益率:2年
美国:国债收益率:10年 (右轴)
美国:国债收益率:30年 (右轴)

资料来源:万得,中银国际研究

2015 年 7 月 21 日

2015-07-07

2015-06-23

2015-06-09

2015-05-26

2015-05-12

2015-04-28

2015-04-14

1.5

2015-03-31

2015-07-08

2015-06-24

2015-06-10

2015-05-27

2015-05-13

2015-04-29

2015-04-15

2015-04-01

2015-03-18

2015-03-04

2015-02-18

2015-02-04

2015-01-21

2015-01-07

2.0

2015-03-17

2.5

2015-03-03

3.0

2015-02-17

3.5

(% )
1.2
1.0
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.0

2015-02-03

(% )
4.0

2015-01-20

(% )
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0.0

2015-01-06

图表 53. 上周美国国债收益率下降

3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0

德国:国债收益率:10年
法国:国债收益率:10年 (左轴)
西班牙:国债收益率:10年 (右轴)
意大利:国债收益率:10年 (右轴)

资料来源:万得,中银国际研究

策略周报

14

美国经济数据跟踪与预测
图表 56. 美国 6 月 ISM 制造业 PMI 为 53.5

图表 55. 美国 6月核心 CPI同比增长 1.8%,环比增长 0.1%
(% )
0.5

60

0.4

55

2.0

0.3

1.9

0.2

1.8

0.1
0.0

1.7

(0.1)

1.6

(0.3)

05-15

03-15

01-15

11-14

09-14

07-14

05-14

03-14

01-14

11-13

09-13

(0.2)
07-13

1.5

50
45
40
35
30

11-07
03-08
07-08
11-08
03-09
07-09
11-09
03-10
07-10
11-10
03-11
07-11
11-11
03-12
07-12
11-12
03-13
07-13
11-13
03-14
07-14
11-14
03-15

(% )
2.1

美国:核心CPI:当月同比 (左轴)
美国:核心CPI:环比 (右轴)

美国:供应管理协会(ISM):制造业PMI

资料来源:万得,中银国际研究

资料来源:万得,中银国际研究

图表 57. 美国 6 月 Market 制造业 PMI 为 53.6

图表 58. 美国 7 月消费者信心指数为 93.3

59

100

58

95
90

57
56

85
80

55

75

54

70
65

53

12-07
04-08
08-08
12-08
04-09
08-09
12-09
04-10
08-10
12-10
04-11
08-11
12-11
04-12
08-12
12-12
04-13
08-13
12-13
04-14
08-14
12-14
04-15

06-15

04-15

02-15

12-14

10-14

08-14

06-14

04-14

02-14

12-13

10-13

50

08-13

51

06-13

60
55

04-13

52

美国:密歇根大学消费者信心指数

美国:Markit制造业PMI:季调

资料来源:万得,中银国际研究

资料来源:万得,中银国际研究

图表 59. 美国 6月失业率为 5.3%

图表 60. 美国 6 月新增非农就业 22.3 万人

(% )
8.0

( 千人)
350

7.5

300
250

7.0

200

6.5

150

04/15

01/15

10/14

07/14

04/14

01/14

10/13

07/13

04/13

01/13

10/12

07/12

04/12

01/12

美国:新增非农就业人数:季调(初值)

美国:失业率:季调

资料来源:万得,中银国际研究

2015 年 7 月 21 日

05-15

03-15

01-15

11-14

09-14

07-14

05-14

0
03-14

5.0

01-14

50
11-13

5.5
09-13

100

07-13

6.0

资料来源:万得,中银国际研究

策略周报

15

图表 62.美国 5 月新建住房销售环比上升 2.3%

图表 61. 美国 7月 11日当周初申请失业金 28.1万人
350,000

( 千套)
600

( 人)

300,000

10

500

250,000

(% )
15

400

200,000

0

300

150,000

(5)
(10)

200

100,000

(15)

100
04/15

01/15

10/14

07/14

04/14

01/14

10/13

07/13

04/13

01/13

10/12

07/12

(20)
04/12

01/15
01/15
01/15
02/15
02/15
02/15
02/15
03/15
03/15
03/15
03/15
04/15
04/15
04/15
04/15
05/15
05/15
05/15
05/15
05/15
06/15
06/15
06/15
06/15
07/15
07/15

0

01/12

50,000
0

5

(25)

美国:新建住房销售:折年数:季调 (左轴)

美国:当周初次申请失业金人数:季调

美国:新建住房销售:环比:季调 (右轴)

资料来源:万得,中银国际研究

资料来源:万得,中银国际研

本周经济日历
图表 63. 本周中国经济日历
日期
07/23/2015 21:45
07/26/2015 21:30

公布指标
财新中国 PMI
工业利润同比

指标所处区间
七月初
六月

预期
49.8
--

前值
49.4
0.60%

资料来源: 彭博,中银国际研究

图表 64. 本周美国经济日历
日期
07/22/2015 07:00
07/22/2015 09:00
07/22/2015 10:00
07/22/2015 10:00
07/23/2015 08:30
07/23/2015 08:30
07/23/2015 08:30
07/23/2015 09:45
07/23/2015 10:00
07/23/2015 11:00
07/24/2015 09:45
07/24/2015 10:00
07/24/2015 10:00

公布指标
MBA 抵押贷款申请指数
FHFA 房价指数月环比
现房销售
旧宅销售 月环比
芝加哥联储全美活动指数
首次失业人数
持续领取失业救济人数
彭博消费者舒适度
领先指数
堪萨斯城联储制造业活动指数
Markit 美国制造业采购经理指数
新建住宅销售
新建住宅销售 月环比

指标所处区间
7 月 17 日
五月
六月
六月
六月
7 月 18 日
7 月 11 日
7 月 19 日
六月
七月
七月初
六月
六月

预期
-0.50%
540 万
0.90%
----0.10%
-53.7
54 万
-1.10%

前值
-1.90%
0.30%
535 万
5.10%
-0.17
28.1 万
221.5 万
43.2
0.70%
-9
53.6
54.6 万
2.20%

资料来源: 彭博,中银国际研究

2015 年 7 月 21 日

策略周报

16

7

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2015 年 7 月 21 日

策略周报

17

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