Greatest Threat to U.S. National Security
Cassandra Black
INTL 443
Foreign Intelligence Organizations
Instructor: Robert Bier
July 25, 2014

INTRODUCTION The United States is considered the most powerful country in the world, so naturally, there are many other countries that are always threatening the country’s natural security. In this paper, we are going to look at three countries that have valid resources in intelligence to be a major threat to the United States. China is a huge threat based on the country’s intelligence resources in HUMINT, SIGINT, and cyber capabilities. Iran’s HUMINT and MASINT intelligence collection methods are highly capable of being a number one contender against the United States. Lastly, Russia has a deep history in HUMINT intelligence with successful espionage and ELINT capabilities that no other European country has used before. These three countries are highly skilled and capable to be a major threat to the world. So which country’s intelligence capabilities is the number one threat?
CHINA, IRAN, or RUSSIA? China, Iran and Russia are three countries that are equally capable to be a threat to U.S. national security. As stated above, each country is highly skilled in their respective intelligence collection method. The Chinese Spy Agency is an extremely effective organization that is comprised of twelve different bureaus of intelligence collection. Each bureau collects intelligence from HUMINT, SIGINT, cyber, and so on. China’s HUMINT collection is considered number one in the world, due to the fact that their agents never get caught. Iran’s HUMINT counterpart consists of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps that is not just based in Iran, but also in Syria, Afghanistan, and the United States. These guards are extremely capable in collecting intelligence and transferring it to the intelligence community. Although Russia is capable in HUMINT collection activities, the country’s strength lies in cyber warfare. “Russia, considered the second most adept at cyber warfare after the U.S., could use an attack on American computer systems as a way to seek revenge on the U.S.”With the help from Russia’s Intelligence Agency, SVR, they have a fighting chance to be the United States’ number one threat to national security. China’s intelligence collection methods are recognized as highly capable in the threat to U.S. national security. As mentioned before, China’s Spy Agency has twelve bureaus that are skilled in their respective collection methods. China’s OSINT capabilities are highly capable compared to Iran and Russia. The Chinese use tourists and citizens to travel to other countries, mostly the United States, to collect information that could be of use to the Spy Agency. These “secret” agents are then debriefed as if they knew nothing of the operation. The country’s HUMINT method is filled with five different types of agents ranging from secret to expendable that collect information. Unlike Russia, the Chinese do not use dead drops as a recruitment process, but rather loyal citizens to collect information. China’s MASINT capabilities has “the most active and diverse ballistic missile development program in the world.” Unlike any other country, China’s cyber warfare technique is among the world’s best. The country’s growing fascination with technology and hacking has prompted several hacker groups that have proved to be a huge problem to the United States and other countries in the Middle East. The Comment Group, one of many hacker groups in China, “had successfully stolen information from multiple large, prominent businesses from the U.S. to Europe.” After a review of all of the highly capable intelligence collection platforms for China, I believe that China is the number one threat to the United States’ national security. Iran’s threat to national security is my number two choice in terms of capable collection methods within the intelligence community. Iran is definitely a contender in the threat game against the United States and surrounding countries. Iran is a developing country that has one of the world’s largest ballistic missile program in the world. In fact, it was stated that “with sufficient foreign assistance, Iran could develop and test an ICBM capable of reaching the United States by 2015.” Iran’s HUMINT intelligence service includes more than 30,000 agents that collect intelligence by stealing technology and espionage. These agents are actively engaged in numerous covert operations all over the world. The difference between the Chinese HUMINT agents and Iran’s HUMINT agents is that Iran’s agents use bombing attacks and assassination as part of their collection method, whereas the Chinese do not use violence to collect information. Iran’s cyber collection is rapidly developing to be one of the most active players in the world. “The rapid development of Iran’s cyber warfare capability means that Israel and other western countries must work decisively and systematically to maintain qualitative and operational superiority in cyberspace.” With Iran’s ballistic capabilities, HUMINT covert operations, and cyber warfare development, Iran is a close contender to China as a threat to U.S. national security. Although Russia does not have a lot of intelligence capabilities, they are still a dangerous threat to U.S. national security with the resources they do possess. Russia’s Foreign Intelligence Service, sluzhba vneshney razvedki, or SVR, is Russia’s primary intelligence agency. The SVR is responsible for the country’s espionage and intelligence activities inside and outside of the Russian borders. Russia’s HUMINT agents actively recruit members by finding people in other countries and persuading them to collect information to send to Russia. If the people refuse, then they will possibly be exiled from Russia or possibly by killed. Even with Russia’s brutal recruitment technique, their HUMINT capabilities are dwindling down. “Although the opportunity to collect HUMINT has expanded as a result of the relaxation of security standards in focused on Russia; the reduction in number of SVR intelligence officers, the closing of diplomatic facilities throughout the world, and the loss of access of former Warsaw Pact intelligence services will lead to an overall reduction in intelligence acquired through HUMINT.” With the reduction of HUMINT capabilities, Russia has relied on their SIGINT collection method. The Russian Federation is the only country in Europe that has used their ELINT collection satellite system. “ELINT systems have played a major role in Soviet military doctrine with the dramatic increase of radio and radar emitters on the battlefield during the past 30 years.” Although Russia’s military and collection methods prove capable to be a threat to national security, it is not a higher than China’s threat.
CONCLUSION
After the review of China, Iran, and Russia’s intelligence collection methods, it is safe to say that China is the United States’ number one threat to national security. China is a very large country with a multitude of technologies and resources to potentially bring the United States down a few levels. China’s Spy Agency is a well-organized group that has highly skilled agents and citizens that collect information for the country, all without pay and harsh recruitment techniques. China’s HUMINT, SIGINT, and cyber collection methods are stronger than those of Iran and Russia.
BIBLIOGRAPHY

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[ 1 ]. (Woodyard 2014)
[ 2 ]. (MPS BAA Announcement n.d.)
[ 3 ]. (Lawrence 2014)
[ 4 ]. (BAA 2012)
[ 5 ]. (Kronenfeld 2014)
[ 6 ]. (Pike 1997)
[ 7 ]. (Lindborg 1997)