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Growth, Poverty and Inequality Paradox in India: a Panel Data Approach

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Submitted By ritikak10
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This paper is a modest attempt to examine the temporal and cross state behaviour of the growth ,poverty and inequality and also to examine the relations between them and to see whether the temporal behaviour of the incidence of poverty is compatible with the policy evolution followed since independence Further we re-examine whether the conventional hypothesis that growth is a necessary but not sufficient condition for the reduction of poverty across the states hold. Finally, we try to find out the proximate explanatory factors for the crossstate and temporal variations in the incidence of poverty in terms panel regression analysis. We find that our economy has indeed achieved a high growth trajectory such that it has been conspicuous during the post reform period with a remarkable structural transformation on an unconventional path which has been accompanied by a tremendous increase in service sector driven growth path.
Almost all the states have experienced increase in the growth rates of their real per capita NSDP in varying degrees over the period and the post reform period marks a phase of achievement of very high growth rates for almost all the states. The nature of the growth experienced by the states is found to be divergent .We do not find any uniform relation between temporal behaviour of the growth rates and the Gini inequality across the states
Interestingly almost all the states have experienced declining trend in the incidence of poverty in varying degrees during the pre reform period and also over the period from 1993-94 to 2009-10
i.e. during the post reform period. We also find that the relative positions of the states regarding their ability to reduce poverty varies remarkably at the inter temporal level over the period of our study. The time profiles of growth rates, Gini inequalities and the rates of fall in the incidence of poverty do not reveal any definite desired relations. Further we find a paradoxical relation between growth performance and regional concentration of poverty. Moreover our panel regression results confirm that the cross state temporal variations in the social sector expenditure and growth rate of per capita NSDP and the growth rate of per capita NSDP from service sector are the crucial explanatory factors for the cross state temporal variations in the incidence of poverty. So we can plausibly conclude that our panel results are highly compatible with the policy evolutions towards poverty reduction and also with nature of the structural transformation with tremendous increase in service sector –led growth Therefore for the further reduction in the magnitude of poverty of the people across the states, more emphasis should be placed not only on the increase in the growth rates but also on the tremendous increase in the social sector expenditures like health ,education etc across the states. However because of the high degree of regional concentration of poverty as compared to that of population in a few states some state specific special strategies for poverty alleviation seem to produce substantial favorable effect on the incidence of poverty.

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