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Jetblue Fuel Hedging Case

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JetBlue Fuel Hedging Case

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Mengni Huang David Niedrauer

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1. the high price of jet fuel at the end of 2011, JetBlue should hedge its fuel costs for 2012. JetBlue’s approach to fuel hedging was to enter into hedges on a discretionary basis without a specific targets. As you can see from Exhibit 1 in the Appendix, it hedged less in 2009 when oil prices were low and increased the percentage hedged again in 2010 and 2011. Dynamic strategies were based on the idea that oil prices followed a mean-reverting process. Ideally, airlines wanted to lock in prices at the low point in the cycle while capping prices at the high end but take advantage of eventual price declines. Besides, the hedge value H is given by the relationship, H = ρ * σ [spot] / σ [futures] where ρ is the correlation between the spot jet fuel price and selected futures contract, σ is the standard deviation, or volatility, of each respective contract. If the price of jet fuel price increases, the hedge ratio will also increase, which means the percentage hedged should be increased.

2. Looking back from 2007 through 2011, heating oil moved closely with the price of jet fuel. The results from question 3 shows that the price of jet fuel moved more closely with price of heating oil than other two fuels.

3. JetBlue should switch to Brent. From Exhibit 2 in the case, given the spot price of all the fuels, the calculated fuel price correlation coefficient values with price of jet fuel are 0.95851154, 0.97416331186, and 0.99729595278 for WTI crude oil, Brent crude oil and heating oil, respectively. The highest positive correlation value is between jet fuel and heating oil, suggesting the two

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