...International Review of Business Research Papers Vol.3 No.2 June 2007, Pp. 362 - 375 362 Stock Return Volatility in Emerging Equity Market (Kse): The Relative Effects of Country and Global Factors Mohammad Faisal Rizwan* and Safi Ullah Khan** This paper focuses on the role of macroeconomic variables and global factors on the volatility of the stock returns in an emerging market like Pakistan. The paper uses two multivariate models, multivariate EGARCH and Vector Auto Regressive (VAR) models to investigate the effect of exchange rate, interest rate, industrial production, money supply, Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) World Index and 6-months LIBOR on stock prices in Pakistan’s equity market. The estimate shows that domestic macroeconomic variables have varying degrees of importance in explaining the relationship between stock returns and volatility in Karachi Stock Exchange. The empirical results also show that the two global factors, MSCI World Index and 6-months LIBOR, variables used in this paper explain the stock returns in KSE. An important conclusion drawn from the results is that macroeconomic variables exhibit asymmetric effects on returns volatility. Overall, the results show that Pakistan’s stock market is partially integrated as shown by the significant role of both country and global factors. Field of Research: Finance 1. Introduction Studies on the link between macroeconomic variables and stock returns are broadly divided into two groups based on...
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...FInTHE ROLE OF OIL FUTURES IN RISK MANAGEMENT From: To: Senior Management - Airlines Company November 2011 0 University of Westminster - Westminster Business School International Risk Management COURSEWORK THE ROLE OF OIL FUTURES IN RISK MANAGEMENT Student: Student ID: Course: Word count: MSc. Finance and Accounting 2557/2617 1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY In the world today, oil is being used as the main source of energy for a lot of core industries. Due to its non-renewable characteristics and the global rising demand, oil has increased in its value, which results in many oil price crises recently. For all those industries using large amount of oil in operation, the risk of rising oil price is an extensive problem. The most efficient method to hedge against this risk is by using oil futures contracts. Because of its effectiveness, oil futures contracts are playing a key role in risk management for a number of industries including transportation and manufacturing. This report provides principal knowledge about oil futures and its role in hedging the risk of oil price volatility. A case study of US airline industry with most updated data obtained from Bloomberg system is also discussed, which suggests the effectiveness of oil futures in risk management for most airlines companies. However, in some case, the inflexible use of oil futures may create a burden in financial costs while not producing effectiveness in risk hedging. 2 TABLE OF CONTENTS LIST OF...
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...to thank all those individuals whose valuable contribution in a direct or indirect manner has gone into the making of this dissertation a tremendous learning experience for me. I take this privilege to express my heartfelt gratitude to our Hon. Director Prof. Sangram Mudali, Hon. Batch co-coordinator Mr.Chinmaya Sahu for encouraging doing this dissertation as a part of curriculum. I would like to express sincerely my deep sense of gratitude to my project guide, Hon. Course co-coordinator Mr. Shom Prasad Das, Faculty of NIST Business School, Berhampur for her valuable guidance in pursuing this project. With deep sense of gratitude and honor, I would like to express my heartily thanks to all the faculties of Management for their precious guidance and advice from inception to completion of the work. L Rama...
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...created by allegations from various corners that they encourage excessive speculation and are therefore responsible for the recent commodity price escalation. While this suspicion of excessive speculation in the commodity markets has always been there among policymakers in developing nations like India, it has become more widespread since 2008 in the wake of worldwide inflationary pressures on food and energy. The sudden deflation in the value of various assets underlying different derivatives, which includes commodity derivatives, in the wake of the global meltdown has provoked greater apprehension about the economic utility of futures markets. The suspicion has reached such a high that even the U.S., the biggest proponent of market forces with the most active commodity exchanges in the world, is considering new modes of regulation, and is also investigating the role of commodity derivative trading in the steep rise in prices of wheat, rice, and crude oil. On the other hand, ever since commodity derivative trading was allowed in India in the new millennium, there has always been a hue and cry against such markets, with the alleged notion of excessive “speculation”, though there has rarely been any evidence for it. Rather than recognizing the potential economic utility of commodity derivative markets in price discovery and risk management, the government has been more apprehensive about its alleged ill-effects. As a result, over time, futures trading has been subjected to strict...
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...09674386032 E-mail Id:- triptasreeghosh03@gmail.com I. PROJECT PROPOSED: “IMPACT OF OPEN INTEREST ON EQUITY MARKET TRENDS” II. DESCRIPTION OF THE PROJECT IN BRIEF: This project has been initiated for the purpose of acquainting me with the basics of the financial terminologies used in the stock markets along with the in-depth knowledge on how derivatives work and the impact of open interest on options. One of the most important concepts of the Derivatives Market is ‘Open Interest’. Open Interest (OI) is the total number of outstanding futures/options contracts that are not closed or delivered on a particular day. The project is mainly based on the study of the open interest and how it affects the equity market trends. OI stands to be an useful indicator of the market trends. Increasing OI indicates increased flow of money and thus strengthening of present market trend. Decreasing OI indicates reduced money flow and thus weakening the current trend. Sudden increase or decrease in the open interest position indicates higher market volatility in the near future. This project is a detailed study of OI positions of NIFTY options. The main focus is on forming NIFTY Options Strategy for investors who want to play in the NIFTY options with minimal risk. I will dedicate the initial phase of the project in knowing how the stock market functions and how derivatives play a very important role in minimizing risk. The project is divided into two phases. The first phase is mainly based...
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...MEASURING TIME VARYING VOLATILITY OF USDINR CURRENCY FUTURES IN INDIA *Suhashini.J ** Dr.Chandrasekar.K *Suhashini.J, Faculty Research Scholar, PSNA College of Engineering and Technology, Dindigul, Tamilnadu.Suhashinij@gmail.com **Dr.K.Chandrasekar, Assistant Professor, Alagappa Institute of Management, Alagappa University, Kariakudi. MEASURING TIME VARYING VOLATILITY OF USDINR CURRENCY FUTURES IN INDIA Abstract This paper examines the volatility of USDINR currency pair. USDINR currency pair was introduced in regulated stock exchange of National Stock Exchange in the year 2008. USDINR currency stated to trade as a future instrument on 29.08.2008. Though it’s a delayed decision undertaken in India to introduce currency futures in regulated exchange within the three years of its introduction 10 times of volume traded has increased. The pricing of currencies is supposed to be dependent on volatility of the markets. Therefore it’s important to know the volatility implications of currency market to trade in futures market. To understand volatility implications it is examined using ARCH, GARCH, and GARCH (1, 1) model in this paper. The study finds the evidence of time varying volatility of futures. The study finds an evidence of time varying volatility, which exhibits clustering, high persistence and predictability of currency futures in Indian Market. Key words: Time Varying Volatility, currency futures, USDINR and GARCH Introduction Currency Futures has been...
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...Introduction The financial sector plays crucial roles that mobilize savings and allocate credit in economic performance. In recent years, there has been significant technological development within the financial sector, which has enable banks to effectively manage their internal risk through the application of risk models. The use of models to measure risks is the preferred approach by most banks, for example Goldman Sachs applies the Value at Risk model. However, according to Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (2011, p1), “the expanding use of models in all aspects of banking reflects the extent to which models can improve business decisions, but models also come with costs”. Besides, in a recent study (Jorion 2009), it is argued that many financial institutions experienced large losses over the past few decades due to limitations of using sophisticated models. Therefore, it is essential for Andrew Bank Ltd. to have an in-depth understanding of disadvantages relating to using models and solutions to improve these model risks. 2. Analysis for problems associated with using models “Risks are uncertainties resulting in adverse variations of profitability or in losses”(Bessis 2002, p11). Banks exposes to following risks, credit risk, interest rate risk, market risk, liquidity risk, operational risk, foreign exchange risk and others. As a result, risk models such as the gap analysis, the Value at Risk (VaR) and pricing model are designed to measure and manage...
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...Derivatives Trading and Its Impact on the Volatility of NSE, India GEL : G10, G14, G20, G19 ABSTRACT This article examines the impact of introduction of financial derivatives trading on the volatility of Indian stock market (an emerging stock market). It examines the theme that the introduction of derivatives in the stock market in India would reduce the volatility (risk) in the stock market. NSE Nifty 50 index has been used as a proxy of stock market return. ARCH/GARCH technique has been employed in the analysis. The conditional volatility of interday market returns before and after the introduction of derivatives products are estimated with the (GARCH) model. The Finding suggests that derivatives trading has reduced the volatility. Executive Summary Derivatives trading in the stock market have been a subject of enthusiasm of research in the field of finance the most desired instruments that allow market participants to manage risk in the modern securities trading are known as derivatives. The derivatives are defined as the future contracts whose value depends upon the underlying assets. If derivatives are introduced in the stock market, the underlying asset may be anything as component of stock market like, stock prices or market indices, interest rates, etc. The main logic behind derivatives trading is that derivatives reduce the risk by providing an additional channel to invest with lower trading cost and it facilitates the investors to extend their settlement...
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...Business risks facing mining and metals 2012–2013 Organizations that succeed do so because they are best able to optimize the risk and reward equation for both strategic and operational issues. Contents The Ernst & Young business risk radar for mining and metals Executive summary The top 10 business risks 1. Resource nationalism 2. Skills shortage 3. Infrastructure access 4. Cost inflation 5. Capital project execution 6. Social license to operate Editorial — Prospects and perils: facing up to political risks in mining and metals 7. Price and currency volatility 8. Capital management and access 9. Sharing the benefits 10. Fraud and corruption 3 4 10 11 14 17 20 23 26 28 32 35 38 40 Under the radar Getting prepared 42 46 The Ernst & Young business risk radar for mining and metals Up from 2011 Down from 2011 Same as 2011 New entry The risks closest to the center of the radar are those that pose the greatest challenges to the mining and metals sector in 2012 and into 2013. The business risk report Mining and metals 2012–2013 3 Executive summary 4 The business risk report Mining and metals 2012–2013 A more complex and extreme risk environment “The bottom line is that if returns start to wane, then there is a greater imperative for organizations to tightly and more effectively manage their risks to maintain an adequate risk/reward balance.” Mike Elliott Global Mining and Metals Leader, Ernst & Young On the surface, the top...
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...organizations”. Discuss the role of treasuries in sustaining shareholders value in the light of the above statement. The increasingly volatile global bond & equities market, challenging bank and financial environment and the weakening in Ringgit had brought a significant amount of good and bad effect to the banks and other organization in the country. It is vital for treasuries to investigate the cause and evaluate the effect of these issues to their daily operation to ensure the right strategy could be employed. Recently, volatility in global financial market hiked to its highest level since 2011 mainly due to the rapid dramatic changes in the global equities market and its contagion effect on the global bond market. According to Irwin (2015), the root of cause of this global volatility outburst was mainly China. The main reason for a slide in Chinese stock market that impacted the global market would be the concern regarding the health of the nation’s economy due to the effort of transition from an investment and export led boom economy to something more sustainable in long term by the Chinese government. Besides, the surprise move by Chinese government to devalue its currency in part of an effort to align the Yuan with market forces also contributed greatly in the volatility (The Associated Press, 2015). Chu (2015) reported that as China is an emerging economy that contribute greatly to the global growth, there will undeniably an inevitably impact on the entire global economy...
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...Chapter 2: Real Options Chapter Introduction and Objectives: Managers often overrule NPV based recommendations in capital budgeting on strategic grounds. Does it mean that the NPV approach is flawed? The standard DCF methodology assumes that managers make an investment decision and then see how the market evolves. In many situations managers can wait and then make a decision. The latter is an option - an option to defer or time the investment decision. Pharmaceutical companies, for example, frequently enter into agreements with small biotechnology companies and Universities for research and development. The traditional DCF methodology does not work well in case of such projects because of prolonged development and uncertainty in cash flows. For gaining access to research, the pharmaceutical company makes an up-front payment and a series of progress payments. These contingent payments give the pharmaceutical company the right but not the obligation to make further investments. Such investments are best evaluated as options . The chapter has the following objectives: • Highlight different types of financial options • Bring out an analogy between financial options and real options • Highlight the different types of real options • Introduce valuation of real options Consider a project that has a best outcome of $ 13 m and a worst outcome of $ 9 m. Each of these outcomes are equally likely to occur (probability is 0.5). The expected value...
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...Introduction The exchange rate volatility and its impact on the volume of international trade has been studied Intensively during 1970’s when the world economy shifted from fixed exchange rate to free floating Exchange rate. The hypotheses may be that if the exchange rate volatility is higher than it will generate Uncertainty of the future profit from export trade. To diminish the uncertainty investors can go for Currency hedge and minimize the uncertainty related to international trade in short time. In long the Run, exchange rate volatility may also affect trade indirectly by influencing firm’s investment decision. However, the commercial investors have limited possibilities of trading claims to future operational Cash flows. Hence they are forced to shift away to less risky markets. According to these arguments, traders are risk averse, and hedging is expensive or impossible. Therefore, exchange rate volatility will reduce risk adjusted profit from foreign trade. The high degree of volatility and uncertainty of Exchange rate movements since the beginning of the generalized floating in 1973 have led policy makers and researchers to investigate the nature and extent of the impact of such movements on the volume of trade. However, the studies dealt with the exchange rate volatility and its effect on trade flows have yielded mixed results. On one hand, a number of studies have argued that exchange rate volatility will impose costs on risk averse market participants...
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...MANAGING F OREIGN E XCHANGE R ISK WITH DERIVATIVES by Gregory W. Brown* The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill May, 2000 Version 3.4 Abstract This study investigates the foreign exchange risk management program of HDG Inc. (pseudonym), an industry leading manufacturer of durable equipment with sales in more than 50 countries. The analysis relies primarily on a three month field study in the treasury of HDG. Precise examination of factors affecting why and how the firm manages its foreign exchange exposure are explored through the use of internal firm documents, discussions with managers, and data on 3110 foreign-exchange derivative transactions over a three and a half year period. Results indicate that several commonly cited reasons for corporate hedging are probably not the primary motivation for why HDG undertakes a risk management program. Instead, informational asymmetries, facilitation of internal contracting, and competitive pricing concerns seem to motivate hedging. How HDG hedges depends on accounting treatment, derivative market liquidity, foreign exchange volatility, exposure volatility, technical factors, and recent hedging outcomes. * Department of Finance, Kenan-Flagler Business School, The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, CB 3490 – McColl Building, Chapel Hill, NC 27599-3490. Voice: (919) 962-9250, Fax: (919) 962-2068, Email: gregwbrown@unc.edu. A more recent version of this document may be available from my web page: http://itr.bschool...
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...Business - Daniels and Radebouqh 2. International Business - Sundaram and Black 3. International Business — Roebuck and Simon 4. International Business – Charles Hill 5. International Business— Subba Rao 3.0.2 Strategic management 100 Marks Course Content 1. Strategic Management Process: Vision. Mission, Goal Philosophy. Policies of an Organization. 2. Strategy, Strategy as planned action, Its importance, Process and advantages of planning Strategic v/s Operational Planning. 3. Decision making and problem solving. Categories of problems, Problem solving skill, Group decision making. Phases indecision making, 4. Communication Commitment and performance, Role of the leader, Manager v/s Leaders Leadership styles 5. Conventional Strategic Management v[s Unconventional Strategic Management. The Differences, Changed Circumstance. 6. Growth Acce orators: Business Web, Market Power, learning based. 7. Management Control, Elements, Components of Management Information Sysstems 8. Mokena’s 7 8 Models : Strategy, style, structure, systems, staff, skill and Shared values 9. Group Project Reference Text 1. Strategic Management — Thompson & Striekland McGraw Hill 2. Competitive advantage – Michael...
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...1 | Journal of Management and Science Vol.2, No.1 ISSN:2249-1260/EISSN:2250-1819 ACCEPTANCE OF E-BANKING AMONG CUSTOMERS (An Empirical Investigation in India) K.T. Geetha1 & V.Malarvizhi2 Professor and Assistant Professor, Department of Economics, Avinashilingam Institute for home Science and Higher Education for Women Coimbatore -641043, TamilNadu, India 1 2 Abstract Financial liberalization and technology revolution have allowed the developments of new and more efficient delivery and processing channels as well as more innovative products and services in banking industry. Banking institutions are facing competition not only from each other but also from non-bank financial intermediaries as well as from alternative sources of financing. Another strategic challenge facing banking institutions today is the growing and changing needs and expectations of consumers in tandem with increased education levels and growing wealth. Consumers are becoming increasingly discerning and have become more involved in their financial decisions. This paper investigates the factors which are affecting the acceptance of ebanking services among the customers and also indicates level of concern regarding security and privacy issues in Indian context. Primary data was collected from 200 respondents through a structured questionnaire. Descriptive statistics was used to explain demographic profile of respondents and Factor and Regression analyses were used to know the factors affecting e-banking...
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