...Copyright © 2014, 2011, and 2008 Pearson Education, Inc. 14-1 Statistics for Business and Economics Chapter 14 Time Series: Descriptive Analyses, Models, & Forecasting Copyright © 2014, 2011, and 2008 Pearson Education, Inc. 14-2 Content 1 2 3 4 5 6 Descriptive Analysis: Index Numbers Descriptive Analysis: Exponential Smoothing Time Series Components Forecasting: Exponential Smoothing Forecasting Trends: Holt’s Method Measuring Forecast Accuracy: MAD and RMSE Copyright © 2014, 2011, and 2008 Pearson Education, Inc. 14-3 Content 7 8 9 Forecasting Trends: Simple Linear Regression Seasonal Regression Models Autocorrelation and the DurbinWatson Test Copyright © 2014, 2011, and 2008 Pearson Education, Inc. 14-4 Learning Objectives • Focus on methods for analyzing data generated by a process over time (i.e., time series data). Present descriptive methods for characterizing time series data. Present inferential methods for forecasting future values of time series data. Copyright © 2014, 2011, and 2008 Pearson Education, Inc. • • 14-5 Time Series • • • • Data generated by processes over time Describe and predict output of processes Descriptive analysis – Understanding patterns Inferential analysis – Forecast future values Copyright © 2014, 2011, and 2008 Pearson Education, Inc. 14-6 14.1 Descriptive Analysis: Index Numbers Copyright © 2014, 2011, and 2008 Pearson Education, Inc. 14-7 Index Number • • ...
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