...This essay is based on the 2007 book The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable by Nassim Nicholas Taleb (1960 - ). It is hardly an obscure tome, having been on the New York Times bestseller list for several weeks. Before I get to the essence of this essay I believe explaining what the term “Black Swan” means and saying a few words about the author would be in order. It was once thought in the Old World that only white swans existed. Then from Australia came the realization that there were black swans. And no, they were not white swans made black by bootblack or any other artificial coloring medium. After millennia of observations in the West of millions of white swans, the sighting of one black swan was enough to invalidate this long and firmly held belief. In a broader sense then A Black Swan is a sudden, monumental, and completely unexpected event. WWI, WWII, and 9/11 were Black Swans. If one were to win a multi-million dollars lottery that would be a personal Black Swan (Black Swans are not all negative, although given the troubles experienced by some of these huge lottery winners, this might also be negative). But a Black Swan is more than this – it goes to the heart of and challenges the putative acceptance of Gaussian probabilities. Least you think Gaussian or bell shaped probability functions are theoretical only and not important in real life, then consider that not only mathematics, but engineering, medicine, social sciences, economomics, the insurance...
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...S A BRIEF HISTORY OF DECISION MAKING BY L E I G H B UC H A N A N A N D A N D R E W O ’ CO N N E L L RANDY LYHUS Humans have perpetually sought new tools and insights to help them make decisions. From entrails to artificial intelligence, what a long, strange trip it’s been. SOMETIME IN THE MIDST OF THE LAST CENTURY, Chester Barnard, a retired telephone executive and author of The Functions of the Executive, imported the term “decision making” from the lexicon of public administration into the business world. There it began to replace narrower descriptors such as “resource allocation” and “policy making.” 34 | Chances Are The dicey history of risk 36 | The Meeting of Minds The power and perils of group decision making 38 | Thinking Machines The real intelligence behind AI 40 | The Romance of the Gut The appeal of leaders who just do it The introduction of that phrase changed how managers thought about what they did and spurred a new crispness of action and desire for conclusiveness, argues William Starbuck, professor in residence at the University of Oregon’s Charles H. Lundquist College of Business.“Policy making could go on and on endlessly, and there are always resources to be allocated,” he explains.“‘Decision’ implies the end of deliberation and the beginning of action.” So Barnard–and such later theorists as James March, Herbert Simon, and Henry Mintzberg– laid the foundation for the study of managerial decision making...
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...six sigma six sigma training, history, definitions - six sigma and quality management glossary Six Sigma is now according to many business development and quality improvement experts, the most popular management methodology in history. Six Sigma is certainly a very big industry in its own right, and Six Sigma is now an enormous 'brand' in the world of corporate development. Six Sigma began in 1986 as a statistically-based method to reduce variation in electronic manufacturing processes in Motorola Inc in the USA. Today, twenty-something years on, Six Sigma is used as an all-encompassing business performance methodology, all over the world, in organizations as diverse as local government departments, prisons, hospitals, the armed forces, banks, and multi-nationals corporations. While Six Sigma implementation continues apace in many of the world's largest corporations, many organizations and suppliers in the consulting and training communities have also seized on the Six Sigma concept, to package and provide all sorts of Six Sigma 'branded' training products and consultancy and services. Six Sigma has also spawned manay and various business books on the subject. Six Sigma, it might seem, is taking over the world. Interestingly while Six Sigma has become a very widely used 'generic' term, the name Six Sigma is actually a registered trademark of Motorola Inc., in the USA, who first pioneered Six Sigma methods in the 1980's. The original and technically correct spelling seems to be...
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...THE B L A C K SWAN The HIGHLY I mpact IM of the PROBABLE Nassim Nicholas Taleb U.S.A. $26.95 Canada $34.95 is a highly improbable event with three principal characteristics: It is unpre dictable; it carries a massive impact; and, after the fact, we concoct an explanation that makes it appear less random, and more predictable, than it was. The astonishing success of Google was a black swan; so was 9 / 1 1 . For Nassim Nicholas Taleb, black swans underlie almost everything about our world, from the rise of religions to events in our own personal lives. A BLACK SWAN Why do we not acknowledge the phenomenon of black swans until after they occur? Part of the answer, according to Taleb, is that humans are hardwired to learn specifics when they should be focused on generalities. We concentrate on things we already know and time and time again fail to take into consideration what we don't know. We are, therefore, unable to truly estimate oppor tunities, too vulnerable to the impulse to simplify, narrate, and categorize, and not open enough to rewarding those who can imagine the "impossible." For years, Taleb has studied how we fool our selves into thinking we know more than we actually do. We restrict our thinking to the irrelevant and inconsequential, while large events continue to surprise us and shape our world. Now, in this reve latory book, Taleb explains everything we know about what we don't know. He offers...
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...SUBJECT: BUSINESS STATISTICS COURSE CODE: MC-106 LESSON: 01 AUTHOR: SURINDER KUNDU VETTER: DR. B. S. BODLA AN INTRODUCTION TO BUSINESS STATISTICS OBJECTIVE: The aim of the present lesson is to enable the students to understand the meaning, definition, nature, importance and limitations of statistics. “A knowledge of statistics is like a knowledge of foreign language of algebra; it may prove of use at any time under any circumstance”……………………………………...Bowley. STRUCTURE: 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.9 1.10 Introduction Meaning and Definitions of Statistics Types of Data and Data Sources Types of Statistics Scope of Statistics Importance of Statistics in Business Limitations of statistics Summary Self-Test Questions Suggested Readings 1.1 INTRODUCTION For a layman, ‘Statistics’ means numerical information expressed in quantitative terms. This information may relate to objects, subjects, activities, phenomena, or regions of space. As a matter of fact, data have no limits as to their reference, coverage, and scope. At the macro level, these are data on gross national product and shares of agriculture, manufacturing, and services in GDP (Gross Domestic Product). 1 At the micro level, individual firms, howsoever small or large, produce extensive statistics on their operations. The annual reports of companies contain variety of data on sales, production, expenditure, inventories, capital employed, and other activities. These data are often field data...
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