Against the backdrop of the Ukraine crisis and the military airstrikes in Syria, Russian foreign policy is often seen as unpredictable. Not only was Russian action in both cases swift and unexpected, the scope of the response appeared to be disproportionate to the risk posed to Russia’s national interests.
Syria and especially Ukraine appear to be inflection points in the trajectory of Russian foreign policy, representing a shift towards a qualitatively new line of policy. The new configuration is already taking shape. With the shock of Ukraine and Syria now over, predictability is beginning to return to Russian policy, as evidenced by the seven trends below.
Trend #1
Russian policy on its western borders will be defensive, not offensive. Contrary to the fears and phobias of Eastern Europe, there will be no military steps against the new NATO members. Air, sea and cyber incidents will happen again. But the threat here is escalation resulting from an accidental collision, not a pre-planned operation. Defense spending in line with “Russian aggression” will no doubt please NATO’s top leaders, but the chances of solving any real problems as a result will be close to zero.
We are likely to see a local arms race on both sides and periodic flare-ups in the Baltic-Black Sea region. Military activity on either side of the border will be seen as a provocation and an element of “hybrid warfare.” The two sides will mirror each other in that respect.
Trend #2
Any attempt by the West to penetrate the post-Soviet space militarily or economically will be perceived in Russia as hostile and disproportionate.
Whereas such intrusion was once diluted by partnership, it is now viewed unequivocally as a zero-sum game.
The post-Soviet space is seen as an arena of geopolitics, not partnership. The problem is exacerbated by the inherent weakness of many post-Soviet states. Even