...North America Equity Research 06 January 2014 2014 Global Biotech Outlook Differentiated Growth, Advancing Pipelines Should Drive Outperformance; Conf Call at 11am ET Today The biotech sector had a stellar 2013 (NBI: +65%; S&P: +29%) driven by strong demand for the sector’s key products, many positive phase 3 studies and a wave of successful IPOs. Looking to 2014, we think the fundamental backdrop is very similar with 1) beatable revenue growth expectations (2014e: +16% vs. 2012/2013: +12%) including several high-profile drug launches, 2) many pivotal studies set to read out and 3) a stable/favorable regulatory and reimbursement environment. Notably, these factors should continue to make biotech attractive to generalist investors, who played a major role in the 2013 outperformance. Our bias is to stick with large caps as well as mid-caps with approved products; revenue/EPS/cash flow forecasts for 2015 and beyond look broadly beatable, in our view. In contrast, we suspect that “pure pipeline” or tech platform small caps could be more volatile in 2014. We continue to believe that the biotech industry is in the early innings of an innovation cycle with many labelexpansion opportunities and novel agents in phase 2 or 3 trials that are largely unaccounted for in Street models. Hence, we are bullish on the group for 2014. Please join us for a call today at 11am ET to discuss our sector outlook/favorite names (US dial-in: 888-889-1309; OUS: 773-756-0161; Passcode: BIOTECH). Large-cap...
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