pwc.com.au/mba

PwC analysis of the major banks results for full year 2012

Modest growth, potential for more ...

The most recent Australian bank results show the extent of headwinds facing the Australian banks. After two years of double-digit profit growth, underlying cash earnings rose by only 3.6% in 2012. All of that growth came early in the year; with profit showing no growth in the second six months compared to the first half-year.
At the same time, the banks continued to strengthen their capital base with average shareholder funds rising by 8.5% in 2012 compared to 2011, so that return on equity (RoE) fell from 16.4% in 2011 to 15.6% in 2012, reinforcing our long-held view that bank RoEs are in transition to an era where 15% will set the upper bound, not the lower bound, for Australian bank average RoEs. This cautious outlook is reinforced by global developments since our last report six months ago, and in particular that global growth expectations have been revised downwards, leading to further monetary policy easing across the globe, including in Australia. At the same time ECB President Draghi’s commitment in July to do “whatever it takes” marked a much more constructive period for dealing with Eurozone concerns and supporting lower risk yields in many markets including wholesale funding markets for our banks over the past few months. The in-principle agreement to create a Eurozone banking union is a tangible sign of meaningful change. Domestically, the main sea-change is vigorous debate about whether “the commodity boom is over?” reinforcing perceptions of the Australian economy’s dependence on China. The fact that (as at the time of writing) the Australian official cash rate sits only 25bp above the all-time (GFC) low of 3.0% emphasises the sombre outlook for domestic demand, including credit. Credit demand shows little sign so far of responding