...Int. Fin. Markets, Inst. and Money 29 (2014) 13–32 Contents lists available at ScienceDirect Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions & Money j o ur na l ho me pa ge : w w w . e l s e v i e r . c o m / l o c a t e / i n t f i n Unbiasedness and risk premiums in the Indian currency futures market Satish Kumar a, Stefan Trück b,∗ a b IBS Hyderabad (a Constituent of ICFAI Foundation for Higher Education), India Macquarie University, Sydney, Australia a r t i c l e i n f o a b s t r a c t This paper explores the relationship between currency futures and realised spot rates for the Indian rupee US dollar exchange rate. Using futures contracts with maturities of one, two and three months, we examine the unbiasedness of futures quotes as a predictor of the future spot exchange rate as well as the nature of time-varying risk premiums in this emerging market. Empirical estimates, obtained using monthly data, suggest the biasedness of futures quotes as a predictor of the future spot rate for contracts with maturities of two and three months. We also find significant time-varying risk premiums in the considered futures market, while the premium is of greater magnitude and more significant with increasing maturity of the contracts. We then examine the relationship between realised risk premiums and explanatory variables such as spot currency returns, the futures basis and realised volatility, skewness and kurtosis of spot currency returns. Our results...
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...DEVALUATION OF INDIAN RUPEE (INR) AND ITS IMPACTS ON INDIAN ECONOMY In a fixed exchange rate regime the term ‘Devaluation’ is used. It means a deliberate downward adjustment of a country's official exchange rate by its government i.e. central bank (RBI in India) relative to other currencies; Where as in floating or fluctuating exchange rate currency's value is allowed to fluctuate according to the foreign exchange market. In this case, it is known as Depreciation. There are two implications for currency devaluation. * First, Devaluation makes a country's exports relatively less expensive for foreigners and * Second, it makes foreign products relatively more expensive for domestic consumers, discouraging imports. As a result, this may help to reduce a country's trade deficit. Revaluation: This term is used in a fixed exchange rate regime; it means a deliberate upward adjustment to a country's official exchange rate relative to other currencies. In floating exchange rate, it is known as Appreciation. The Liberalized Exchange Rate Management System (LERMS): LERMS was introduced in March 1992 involving the dual exchange rate system in the interim period. The dual exchange rate system was replaced by a unified exchange rate system in March 1993. History of Devaluation The Indian rupee, which was on par with the American currency at...
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...Capital account convertibility of the rupee is a distant dream because macro economic parameters have to be stable before it is implemented. The low current account deficit should be sustained and the fiscal deficit needs to be contained. * Leads to free exchange of currency at lower rates and an unrestricted mobility of capital * Beneficial for a country because inflow of foreign investment increases * The flip side, though, is that it could destabilise an economy due to massive capital flows in and out of the country “We are surely on that path but it will take a few more years. The rupee as a currency should be more frequently traded internationally,” said Dwijendra Srivastava, chief investment officer (debt) at Sundaram Mutual Fund. India’s external sector was vulnerable till recently, with the current account deficit above the comfort level of 2.5 per cent of the gross domestic product. It was 4.2 per cent of gross domestic product (GDP) in 2011-12 and rose to 4.7 per cent in 2012-13. After severe curbs, including restrictions on import of precious metals, the deficit fell to 1.7 per cent in 2013-14. In 2014-15, it continued to stay low, with the third quarter showing a deficit of 1.6 per cent. The fiscal situation remains fragile. The turning point was in 2007, the year of the global financial crisis. The fiscal deficit of the central government has been 4.6-6.5 per cent in the past six years, before falling to 4.1 per cent in 2013-14. The government is...
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...Executive summary | | | This paper presents a description of the hawala (also referred to as hundi) alternative remittance system. Hawala is an ancient system originating in South Asia; today it is used around the world to conduct legitimate remittances. Like any other remittance system, hawala can, and does, play a role in money laundering. In addition to serving as a 'tutorial' on hawala transaction, this paper will also discuss the way in which hawala is used to facilitate money laundering. What is hawala? | | | Hawala (1) is an alternative or parallel remittance system. It exists and operates outside of, or parallel to 'traditional' banking or financial channels. It was developed in India, before the introduction of western banking practices, and is currently a major remittance system used around the world. It is but one of several such systems; another well known example is the 'chop', 'chit' or 'flying money' system indigenous to China, and also, used around the world. These systems are often referred to as 'underground banking'; this term is not always correct, as they often operate in the open with complete legitimacy, and these services are often heavily and effectively advertised. The components of hawala that distinguish it from other remittance systems are trust and the extensive use of connections such as family relationships or regional affiliations. Unlike traditional banking or even the 'chop' system, hawala makes minimal (often no) use of any sort...
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...Relationship Between Exchange Rate and Stock Prices in India – An Empirical Analysis By Golaka C Nath* and G P Samanta** Abstract: The dynamic linkage between exchange rate and stock prices has been subjected to extensive research for over a decade and attracted considerable attention from researchers worldwide during the Asian crisis of 1997-98. The issue is also important from the viewpoint of recent large cross-boarder movement of funds. In India the issue is also gaining importance in the liberalization era. With this background, the present study examines the causal relationship between returns in stock market and forex market in India. Using daily data from March 1993 to December 2002, we found that causal link is generally absent though in recent years there has been strong causal influence from stock market return to forex market return. The results, however, are tentative and we need further in-depth research to identify the causes and consequences of the findings. January 2003 * Manager, NSEIL, Bandra-Complex, Bandra (East), Mumbai – 400 051 ** Assistant Adviser, RBI, DESACS, C-8, Bandra-Kurla Complex, Bandra (East), Mumbai – 400 051 The views expressed in the paper are those of the authours’ and not necessarily of the organizations they belong to. 1 Introduction The Asian crisis of 1997-98 has made a strong pitch for dynamic linkage between stock prices and exchange rates. During the crisis period, the world has noticed that the emerging markets collapsed due...
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...A STUDY ON FOREIGN EXCHAGE AND ITS RISK MANAGEMENT Project submitted in partial fulfillment for the award of Degree of MASTER OF BUSINESS ADMINISTRATION DECLARATION I hereby declare that this Project Report titled “A STUDY ON FOREIGN EXCHANGE AND ITS RISK MANAGEMENT” submitted by me to the Department “XXXXX” is a bonafide work under taken by me and it is not submitted to any other University or Institution for the award of any degree diploma / certificate or published any time before. Name and Address of the Student Signature of the Student Date ACKNOWLEDGEMENT I express my profound gratitude to XXXX, Faculty M.B.A for his guidance and support all through the completion of the project. I also express my hurtful thanks to XXXXX for providing valuable suggestions in completions of the project. I take this opportunity to acknowledge unreserved support extended to me by the Project and Training team of HCL TECHNOLOGIES. I am very much indebted to the dedicated and experienced staff of MBA. It is indeed a pleasant task and small effort to thank all the people especially some of my friends who have contributed towards the successful completion of this project work. Finally, I would like to express my gratitude to my parents for their endearing support and cooperation which has made me complete this project fruitfully. SUMMARY A Multinational company...
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...INDIAN DERIVATIVES MARKETS 1 Asani Sarkar 1 I gratefully acknowledge the assistance of Arkadev Chatterjea, Neel Krishnan, Golaka C. Nath and V. Soundararajan in the preparation of this article. The views expressed in this article are mine alone, and do not necessarily reflect those of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, or the Federal Reserve System. Derivatives OUP 1 1. Rise of Derivatives The global economic order that emerged after World War II was a system where many less developed countries administered prices and centrally allocated resources. Even the developed economies operated under the Bretton Woods system of fixed exchange rates. The system of fixed prices came under stress from the 1970s onwards. High inflation and unemployment rates made interest rates more volatile. The Bretton Woods system was dismantled in 1971, freeing exchange rates to fluctuate. Less developed countries like India began opening up their economies and allowing prices to vary with market conditions. Price fluctuations make it hard for businesses to estimate their future production costs and revenues. 2 Derivative securities provide them a valuable set of tools for managing this risk. This article describes the evolution of Indian derivatives markets, the popular derivatives instruments, and the main users of derivatives in India. I conclude by assessing the outlook for Indian derivatives markets in the near and medium term. 2. Definition and Uses of Derivatives A derivative...
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...The Relationship between Interest Rate and Exchange Rate in India Pradyumna Dash[1] Introduction The theoretical as well as empirical relationship between the interest rate and exchange rate has been a debatable issue among the economists. According to Mundell-Fleming model, an increase in interest rate is necessary to stabilize the exchange rate depreciation and to curb the inflationary pressure and thereby helps to avoid many adverse economic consequences. The high interest rate policy is considered important for several reasons. Firstly, it provides the information to the market about the authorities’ resolve not to allow the sharp exchange rate movement that the market expects given the state of the economy and thereby reduce the inflationary expectations and prevent the vicious cycle of inflation and exchange rate depreciation. Secondly, it raises the attractiveness of domestic financial assets as a result of which capital inflow takes place and thereby limiting the exchange rate depreciation. Thirdly, it not only reduces the level of domestic aggregate demand but also improves the balance of payment position by reducing the level of imports. But the East Asian currency crisis and the failure of high interest rates policy to stabilize the exchange rate at its desirable level during 1997-1998 have challenged the credibility of raising interest rates to defend the exchange rate. Critics argue that the high interest rates imperil the ability of the domestic firms...
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...RESEARCH includes research articles that focus on the analysis and resolution of managerial and academic issues based on analytical and empirical or case research Interaction Between Forex and Stock Markets in India: An Entropy Approach Y V Reddy and A Sebastin Executive Summary Interactions between the foreign exchange market and the stock market of a country are considered to be an important internal force of the markets in a financially liberalized environment. If causal relationship from a market to the other is not detected, then informational efficiency exists in the other whereas existence of causality implies that hedging of exposure to one market by taking position in the other market will be effective. The temporal relationship between the forex market and the stock market of developing and developed countries has been studied, especially after the East Asian financial crisis of 1997–98, using various methods like cross-correlation, cross-spectrum, and error correction model, but these methods identify only linear relations. A statistically rigorous approach to the detection of interdependence, including non-linear dynamic relationships, between time series is provided by tools defined using the information theoretic concept of entropy. Entropy is the amount of disorder in the system and also is the amount of information needed to predict the next measurement with a certain precision. The mutual information between two random variables X and Y with a joint...
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... American Depository Receipts Pages 16 to 17 Global Depository Receipts Pages 18 to 19 External Commercial Borrowings Pages 20 to 21 Foreign Currency Convertible Bonds Pages 22 to 25 Capital Account Convertibility Pages 26 to 28 Tarapore Committee and Current Status Pages 29 to 35 What is Capital Account Transaction? Capital account transaction is defined as a transaction which:- ➢ Alters the assets or liabilities, including contingent liabilities, outside India of persons resident in India. In other words, it includes those transactions which are undertaken by a resident of India such that his/her assets or liabilities outside India are altered (either increased or decreased). For example:- (i) a resident of India acquires an immovable property outside India or acquires shares of a foreign company. This way his/her overseas assets are increased; or (ii) a resident of India borrows from a non-resident through External commercial Borrowings (ECBs). This way he/she has created a liability outside India. ➢ Alters the assets or liabilities in India of person resident outside India. In other words, it includes those transactions which are undertaken by a non-resident such that his/her assets or liabilities in India are altered (either increased or decreased). For example, (i) a non-resident acquire immovable property in India or acquire shares of an Indian company...
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...The essential facts/rules/regulations the NRIs must know NRI Guide 2012 2012 A Comprehensive Guide for Indians residing outside India Prakash Nair Prakash@yourownadviser.com www.yourownadviser.com . 1|Page NRI GUIDE (Ver 1.00) (A Comprehensive Guide for Indians residing outside India) Prepared by Prakash Nair Prakash@yourownadviser.com www.yourownadviser.com 2|Page NRI Guide 2012 www.yourownadviser.com PREFACE This NRI guide has been compiled with the help of information available in official website of various government departments like Reserve Bank of India, Income Tax Department, Government of Kerala and other reliable sources. I have taken adequate care to provide current and authentic information. This NRI Guide is intended to serve as a ready reference book to guide NRIs on various matters affecting their financial and other related subjects. This does not purport to be a legal document. So I am not sure that, any errors occurred while compiling this reference guide. In case of any variation between what has been stated in this NRI Guide and the relevant Act, Rules, Regulations, Policy Statements, Government Orders/Circulars etc., the latter shall prevail. Kindly note that, rules related to NRIs are subject to change. Errors and omissions are expected. Ver.2 of this NRI Guide will be published soon with more useful information. Prakash Nair Prakash @yourownadviser.com www.yourownadviser.com Date : 12-Jan-2012 Your suggestions,...
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...Derivative Market – A Case Study on NSE A Report Submitted as per the curriculum of the Master in Business Administration Under Biju Patnaik University of Technology, Rourkela, Orissa. By L Rama kumari Roll No.: 200960712 Regd. No.: 0906202013 [pic] March 2011 Under the Guidance of Mr. Shom Prasad Das NATIONAL INSTITUTE OF SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY Palur Hills, Berhampur- 761008, Orissa, India DECLARATION I, L rama kumari, student of 2009-11 batch of NIST, Berhampur do here by declare that the report entitled “Derivative Market :A Case Study on NSE” that has been submitted by me as a partial fulfillment of the degree of MBA. This report is my own work and no part of this project has been ever submitted by me for any other purpose. I declare that the work has been carried out to the best of my knowledge and belief and according to my capacity and capability. Date: Place: L Rama kumari ACKNOWLEDGEMENT I would like to take this opportunity to thank all those individuals whose valuable contribution in a direct or indirect manner has gone into the making of this dissertation a tremendous learning experience for me. I take this privilege to express my heartfelt gratitude to our Hon. Director Prof. Sangram Mudali, Hon. Batch co-coordinator Mr.Chinmaya Sahu for encouraging doing this dissertation as a part of curriculum. I would like to express sincerely my deep...
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...A PROJECT ON CAPITAL MARKET GUIDE CERTIFICATE It is hereby certified that the project report on “CAPITAL MARKET”, being submitted by Shelly jumba student of the degree of Master of Business Administration (3rd Sem) of CT Institute of Management and Information Technology, Jalandhar which affiliated to Punjab Technical University, Jalandhar is an original work carried out successfully under my guidance and supervision and that no part of this project has been submitted for any other degree/ diploma. The sincerely efforts put in during the course of investigation is hereby acknowledged. Project guide Miss Shivani jagneja Lect. CTIM& IT DECLARATION This project entitled Empirical Study on “CAPITAL MARKET” is submitted in partial fulfilment of the requirement for the award of degree of master of business administration of Punjab technical university, Jalandhar. .This research work has been done only for MBA only and none of this research work has been submitted for any other degree. The assistance and help during the execution of the project has been fully acknowledged. PREFACE The successful completion of this project was a unique experience for us because by visiting many place and interacting various person, I achieved a better knowledge about this project. The experience which I gained by doing this project was essential at this turning point of my carrier this project is being submitted which content detailed analysis of the research under taken by me...
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...www.nitie.ac.in Volume 7 Issue 1 StreetAtNITIE In-Fin-NITIE ALSO INCLUDES: Bank Loan for Startups MSME Sector Development Global Turmoil and Indian Capital Market IN-FIN-NITIE Vol 7 Issue 1 IN-FIN-NITIE Vol 7 Issue 1 MESSAGE FROM THE CONVENOR Want to become an Investment Banker or a Financial Research Analyst Stop dreaming…Add the skill sets required to become one… IIQF is the pioneer of high-end finance education in India. It is an education initiative of top industry practitioners who have pioneered the most sophisticated financial technologies in India like Portfolio Risk Management Models and Systems and Algorithmic Trading Systems using High Performance Parallel Computing. “A mere 25% of graduates that India produces every year is actually employable. Even though India is poised to become the third largest economy in the world by 2050, out of all the graduates that pass out in an academic year, only 25% are suitable for getting inducted into the industry.” Jeffrey Fuller, Principal Advisor of Human Capital. There exists a huge gap between the skills that are required by the industry and what the Indian academic system produces. The objective of IIQF is to impart training to students in those skill-sets that are in demand in the industry and make them industry ready, or as we call them “The Street-Ready”. Certificate Program in Advanced Financial Modelling in Excel and VBA Certificate Program in Financial Modelling in Excel ...
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...tandem with national and global developments This book aims to demystify the central bank by providing a simple account of the Reserve Bank’s operations and the multidisciplinary nature of its functions. The Bank today focuses, among other things, on maintaining price and financial stability; ensuring credit flow to productive sectors of the economy; managing supply of good currency notes within the country; and supervising and taking a lead in development of financial markets and institutions. The book serves to highlight how the Reserve Bank’s decisions touch the daily lives of all Indians and help chart the country’s economic and financial course. We hope that readers would find the book , authored by the staff of the Bank, useful in getting a better appreciation of the policies and concerns of the Reserve Bank. Dr. J. Sadakkadulla Principal Reserve Bank Staff College Chennai 3 4 Contents S. No. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 Chapters Overview Organisation Monetary Management Issuer of Currency Banker and Debt Manager to Government Banker to Banks Financial...
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