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American Greetings Case

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SEKILAS TENTANG AMERICAN GREETINGS

Pada awal tahun 2012, suhu udara vukup hangat di Claveland, Ohio, kantor pusat American Greeting. Tetapi, sekalipun suhu udara mulai menghangat, harga saham American greeting mengalami penurunan. Dalam beberapa bulan terakhir, harga pasar saham perusahaan ini mengamali penurunan hingga di level $12.51. Manajemen American Greeting berencana untuk melakukan share buyback. Dengan current valuation, manajemen berencana untuk membeli ssaham mereka kembali dengan total pembelian sebesar $75. 000.000. keputusan yang diambil bergantung pada expected masa yang akan datang.

Hallmark adalah kompetisi utama untuk American Greetings. Dalam beberapa tahun terakhir, media sosial telah memberitakan penurunan dalam industri kartu ucapan. Kedua American Greetings dan Hallmark telah mulai membuat kartu elektronik untuk mengambil keuntungan dari revolusi digital. Pada akhir 2012, American Greetings berada di bawah kelompok yang sama, dengan kelipatan rendah EV-EBITDA, market-to-book di bawah 1, rasio 6x PE, dan harga saham dari $ 12,51 yang telah turun secara signifikan dalam bulan sebelumnya.
American Greetings secara historis menggunakan strategi pembelian kembali saham pada saat ekuitas rendah. Ini adalah cara yang baik jika harga saham turun sementara, tetapi valuasi rendah juga bisa menjadi tanda dari masalah yang lebih besar di mana akan lebih baik untuk menggunakan cash. Kedua S & P dan Value Line mengantisipasi pertumbuhan moderat untuk American Greetings di tahun-tahun mendatang.
PERMASALAHAN
Apakah American Greetings sebaiknya melakukan repurchase? Pada harga berapa sebaiknya direpurchase?

PEMBAHASAN 1. ANALISIS RASIO
Berdasarkan perhitungan yang kami buat pada exhibit 2 dan 3, maka dapat dilihat nilai ROA mengalami penurunan, karena Net Income pada 2011 mengalami penurunan dibandingkan tahun sebelumnya. Tetapi EPS American Greeting mengalami peningkatan sebesar 0,39 setelah melakukan repurchase saham. Kemampuan likuiditas perusahaan semakin memburuk dimulai dari tahun 2010 hingga tahun 2012. Hal ini bisa dilihat dari hasil perhitungan current ratio, quick ratio dan cash ratio. Ketiga rasio menunjukkan penurunan tajam dimulai dari tahun 2010 hingga ke 2012. Melihat penurunan ini, American Greetings sangat tidak disarankan untuk melakukan repurchase karena kemampuan likuiditasnya yang memburuk.

2. Harga repurchase saham American Greetings
Kelompok kami menggunakan 2 jenis metode untuk mencari harga repurchase saham American Greetings yaitu dengan menggunakan PER dan menggunakan metode FCF model. Berikut ini adalah hasil perhitungan dengan kedua metode tersebut. a. FCF model Period | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | Year | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | EBIT | 129 | 143 | 147 | 151 | 154 | 158 | Tax | (71) | (73) | (75) | (78) | (80) | (82) | Depreciation & Amortization | 43 | 44 | 45 | 47 | 48 | 50 | Change Working Capital | 24 | (14) | (10) | (11) | (11) | (11) | Capital Expenditure | (27) | (23) | (26) | (27) | (28) | (29) | Free Cash Flow | 98 | 77 | 80 | 82 | 83 | 85 | Terminal Value | | | | | 813 | | Total Free Cash Flow | | 77 | 80 | 82 | 896 | | PV FCF | | 77 | 80 | 82 | 896 | | Firm's Value | 1,135 | | | | | | Debt Value | 441 | | | | | | Equity Value | 694 | | | | | | Equity Value/Share | 15.78 | | | | | |

Asumsi yang dipakai: Rf | 2.80% | Beta | 1.63 | Kd | 6% | Km | 8.00% | Ke | 16% | Wd | 0.24 | We | 0.76 | WACC | 13.46% | G | 3% |

b. PER VALUASI PER | PER 2010 | 5.74 | EPS est 2011 | 2.22 | Equity value/share | 12.73954 |

Dari hasil perhitungan 2 model, ditemukan hasil yang berbeda. Model FCF menemukan bahwa American Greetings harus mem-purchase sahamnya pada harga $15.78, sedangkan dari hasil valuasi PER, ditemukan bahwa harga yang paling tepat untuk repurchase adalah $12,73. Namun, dari kedua metode ini, metode yang paling akurat adalah model FCF.
Kesimpulan
Dari segi likuiditas, American Greetings memiliki kemampuan likuiditas yang kurang baik dari tahun ke tahun. Hal ini tentu akan sangat membahayakan bagi perusahaan, jika perusahaan memutuskan untuk melakukan repurchase, meskipun perusahaan tidak menggunakan hutang untuk melakukan repurchase.
Dari hasil perhitungan, harga saham repurchase adalah sebesar $15.78. Seharusnya harga repurchase yang normal adalah 10% di atas harga saham-nya saat ini. Jika harga saat ini $12.51, maka maksimal harga repurchase adalah maksimal sekitar $14 (1.1 x $12.51). Jika nilainya diatas $14, maka tidak disarankan bagi perusahaan untuk melakukan repurchase karena harganya yang terlalu mahal. Dari hasil perhitungan, nilai repurchase adalah $15.78, sehingga American Greetings tidak disarankan melakuan repurchase. Dari kedua pembahasan tersebut, maka dapat disimpulkan, sebaiknya American Greetings tidak dianjurkan melakukan repurchase karena secara likuiditas, perusahaan dalam kondisi yang kurang baik dan harga repurchase terlalu tinggi.

NB: beberapa akun dengan nominal yang sama pada 2012 adalah asumsi tidak ada perubahan nilai. Perubahan yang ada disesaikan dengan kondisi repurchase pada 2012.

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