...In memory of Amos Tversky Contents Introduction Part I. Two Systems 1. The Characters of the Story 2. Attention and Effort 3. The Lazy Controller 4. The Associative Machine 5. Cognitive Ease 6. Norms, Surprises, and Causes 7. A Machine for Jumping to Conclusions 8. How Judgments Happen 9. Answering an Easier Question Part II. Heuristics and Biases 10. The Law of Small Numbers 11. Anchors 12. The Science of Availability 13. Availability, Emotion, and Risk 14. Tom W’s Specialty 15. Linda: Less is More 16. Causes Trump Statistics 17. Regression to the Mean 18. Taming Intuitive Predictions Part III. Overconfidence 19. The Illusion of Understanding 20. The Illusion of Validity 21. Intuitions Vs. Formulas 22. Expert Intuition: When Can We Trust It? 23. The Outside View 24. The Engine of Capitalism Part IV. Choices 25. Bernoulli’s Errors 26. Prospect Theory 27. The Endowment Effect 28. Bad Events 29. The Fourfold Pattern 30. Rare Events 31. Risk Policies 32. Keeping Score 33. Reversals 34. Frames and Reality Part V. Two Selves 35. Two Selves 36. Life as a Story 37. Experienced Well-Being 38. Thinking About Life Conclusions Appendix Uncertainty A: Judgment Under Appendix B: Choices, Values, and Frames Acknowledgments Notes Index Introduction Every author, I suppose, has in mind a setting in which readers of his or her work could benefit from having read it. Mine is the proverbial office watercooler, where opinions are shared and gossip is exchanged. I...
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...THE MARKET WIZARDS CONVERSATIONS WITH AMERICA'S TOP TRADERS JACK D. SCHWAGER HarperBusiness You've got to learn how to fall, before you learn to fly. —Paul Simon One man's ceiling is another man's floor. —Paul Simon If I wanted to become a tramp, I would seek information and advice from the most successful tramp I could find. If I wanted to become a failure, I would seek advice from men who had never succeeded. If I wanted to succeed in all things, I would look around me for those who are succeeding and do as they have done. —Joseph Marshall Wade (as quoted in a Treasury of Wall Street Wisdom edited by Harry D. Schultz and Samson Coslow) 2 Contents Preface...................................................................................................................................................4 Acknowledgments ................................................................................................................................5 Prologue ................................................................................................................................................6 My Own Story ......................................................................................................................................7 Part I-Futures and Currencies ...........................................................................................................9 Taking the Mystery Out of Futures.................................
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...This Tournament Goes to Eleven 2007 This Packet Has Gone to the Dogs (theme packet) Written by: Delaware (Bill Tressler) Every question will mention a dog somewhere, but answers need not be specifically a dog's name or breed. Tossups 1. One character by this name was a son of Zeus and Niobe who succeeded Apis as king of Phoronea. Another had the labors of freeing Arcadia and killing Satyr, while a third is seen "lying neglected on the heaps of mule and cow dung" and could not get up to greet those entering. After one of those figures was slain his 100 most famous attributes were placed on the tails of peacocks, as Hera had previously entrusted him to watch Io with his many eyes. The brother of Cerberus and the dog of Odysseus share, For 10 points, what namesake with the builder of Jason's ship? ANSWER: Argos or Argus 2. The First Battle of Acentejo occurred here in 1494 and was a setback for Fernández de Lugo's attempts at colonization, which were begun when the 1474 Treaty of Alcáçova had ceded this place to Isabel of Castile. Antonio de Viana wrote an epic ode to the aboriginal natives of this place, and one of his works provides the name of Mount Teide, which is the highest point in its entire country. Secondary landmasses here include * Lanzarote, Fuerteventura, Gomera, and La Palma, while its largest component is named Tenerife. Their name is in fact derived from a fierce breed of dogs known as the Presa, and not from their famous yellow avians. For...
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...Stock Investing FOR DUMmIES 2ND by Paul Mladjenovic ‰ EDITION Stock Investing FOR DUMmIES 2ND ‰ EDITION Stock Investing FOR DUMmIES 2ND by Paul Mladjenovic ‰ EDITION Stock Investing For Dummies® 2nd Edition , Published by Wiley Publishing, Inc. 111 River St. Hoboken, NJ 07030-5774 www.wiley.com Copyright © 2006 by Wiley Publishing, Inc., Indianapolis, Indiana Published simultaneously in Canada No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, scanning, or otherwise, except as permitted under Sections 107 or 108 of the 1976 United States Copyright Act, without either the prior written permission of the Publisher, or authorization through payment of the appropriate per-copy fee to the Copyright Clearance Center, 222 Rosewood Drive, Danvers, MA 01923, 978-750-8400, fax 978-646-8600. Requests to the Publisher for permission should be addressed to the Legal Department, Wiley Publishing, Inc., 10475 Crosspoint Blvd., Indianapolis, IN 46256, 317-572-3447, fax 317-572-4355, or online at http://www.wiley.com/go/permissions. Trademarks: Wiley, the Wiley Publishing logo, For Dummies, the Dummies Man logo, A Reference for the Rest of Us!, The Dummies Way, Dummies Daily, The Fun and Easy Way, Dummies.com and related trade dress are trademarks or registered trademarks of John Wiley & Sons, Inc. and/or its affiliates in the...
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...HIER Harvard Institute of Economic Research Discussion Paper Number 2097 Paternalism and Psychology by Edward L. Glaeser December 2005 HARVARD UNIVERSITY Cambridge, Massachusetts This paper can be downloaded without charge from: http://post.economics.harvard.edu/hier/2005papers/2005list.html The Social Science Research Network Electronic Paper Collection: http://ssrn.com/abstract=860865 Paternalism and Psychology Edward L. Glaeser† Does bounded rationality make paternalism more attractive? This Essay argues that errors will be larger when suppliers have stronger incentives or lower costs of persuasion and when consumers have weaker incentives to learn the truth. These comparative statics suggest that bounded rationality will often increase the costs of government decisionmaking relative to private decisionmaking, because consumers have better incentives to overcome errors than government decisionmakers, consumers have stronger incentives to choose well when they are purchasing than when they are voting and it is more costly to change the beliefs of millions of consumers than a handful of bureaucrats. As such, recognizing the limits of human cognition may strengthen the case for limited government. INTRODUCTION An increasingly large body of evidence documenting bounded rationality and non-standard preferences has led many scholars to question eco1 nomics’ traditional hostility towards paternalism. After all, if individuals have so many cognitive difficulties then...
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...Jönköping International Business School Jönköping University B eh avioral F i nance Investors’ Rationality Bachelor Thesis within Finance Authors: Bernéus, Hannes Sandberg, Carl Wahlbeck, David Tutor: Jönköping Österlund, Urban December, 2008 Acknowledgement We would like to thank our tutor Mr. Urban Österlund for his support and guidance. We are also grateful for all valuable comments and insights from our fellow students during seminar sessions. We would also like to present a special thanks to Johan Sandberg at Swedbank Robur and Viktor Östebo at Nordnet. Without Mr. Sandberg’s and Mr. Östebo’s contribution, this thesis would not have been possible to complete. To all the respondents: thank you for your participation! _____________ Hannes Bernéus ____________ Carl Sandberg Jönköping International Business School Date: 2008-12-11 i _____________ David Wahlbeck Bachelor Thesis within Business Administration Title: Authors: Tutor: Date: Subject terms: Behavioral Finance – Investors’ Rationality. Hannes Bernéus, Carl Sandberg, David Wahlbeck Urban Österlund 2008-12-02 Behavioral Finance, Behavioral Economics, Finance, Economic Psychology. Abstract Purpose: The purpose of this thesis is to examine if professional investors are indicating tendencies of irrational behavior when exposed to certain psychological dilemmas related to the financial world. Background: A new field within financial theory emerged...
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...History: The Level of Stock Prices in Early 1972 80 General Portfolio Policy: The Defensive Investor 88 COMMENTARY ON CHAPTER 4 5. 101 124 Portfolio Policy for the Enterprising Investor: Negative Approach 133 COMMENTARY ON CHAPTER 6 7. 112 COMMENTARY ON CHAPTER 5 6. The Defensive Investor and Common Stocks 145 iv 155 COMMENTARY ON CHAPTER 7 8. Portfolio Policy for the Enterprising Investor: The Positive Side 179 The Investor and Market Fluctuations 188 v Contents COMMENTARY ON CHAPTER 8 9. Investing in Investment Funds COMMENTARY ON CHAPTER 9 213 226 242 10. The Investor and His Advisers 257 COMMENTARY ON CHAPTER 10 272 11. Security Analysis for the Lay Investor: General Approach COMMENTARY ON CHAPTER 11 12. Things to Consider About Per-Share Earnings COMMENTARY ON CHAPTER 12 13. A Comparison of Four Listed Companies COMMENTARY ON CHAPTER 13 14. Stock Selection for the Defensive Investor COMMENTARY ON CHAPTER 14 15. Stock Selection for the Enterprising Investor COMMENTARY ON CHAPTER 15 16....
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...OTHER BOOKS BY D. A. BENTON Lions Don’t Need to Roar How to Think Like a CEO The $100,000 Club Secrets of a CEO Coach HOW TO ACT LIKE A 10 Rules for Getting to the Top and Staying There CEO M C G R AW- H I L L SAN FRANCISCO LISBON WA S H I N G T O N , D. C . MADRID AU C K L A N D D. A. BENTON N E W YO R K B O G OT Á MILAN C A R AC A S LONDON NEW DELHI MEXICO CITY SINGAPORE MONTREAL S A N J UA N SYDNEY T O K YO TO RO N TO McGraw-Hill abc Copyright © 2001 by Debra A. Benton. All rights reserved. Manufactured in the United States of America. Except as permitted under the United States Copyright Act of 1976, no part of this publication may be reproduced or distributed in any form or by any means, or stored in a database or retrieval system, without the prior written permission of the publisher. 0-07-137459-0 The material in this eBook also appears in the print version of this title: 0-07-135998-2. All trademarks are trademarks of their respective owners. Rather than put a trademark symbol after every occurrence of a trademarked name, we use names in an editorial fashion only, and to the benefit of the trademark owner, with no intention of infringement of the trademark. Where such designations appear in this book, they have been printed with initial caps. McGraw-Hill eBooks are available at special quantity discounts to use as premiums and sales promotions, or for use in corporate training programs. For more information, please contact George Hoare, Special Sales...
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...THE JOURNAL OF FINANCE • VOL. LVI, NO. 4 • AUGUST 2001 Investor Psychology and Asset Pricing DAVID HIRSHLEIFER* ABSTRACT The basic paradigm of asset pricing is in vibrant f lux. The purely rational approach is being subsumed by a broader approach based upon the psychology of investors. In this approach, security expected returns are determined by both risk and misvaluation. This survey sketches a framework for understanding decision biases, evaluates the a priori arguments and the capital market evidence bearing on the importance of investor psychology for security prices, and reviews recent models. The best plan is . . . to profit by the folly of others. — Pliny the Elder, from John Bartlett, comp. Familiar Quotations, 9th ed. 1901. IN THE MUDDLED DAYS BEFORE THE RISE of modern finance, some otherwisereputable economists, such as Adam Smith, Irving Fisher, John Maynard Keynes, and Harry Markowitz, thought that individual psychology affects prices.1 What if the creators of asset-pricing theory had followed this thread? Picture a school of sociologists at the University of Chicago proposing the Deficient Markets Hypothesis: that prices inaccurately ref lect all available information. A brilliant Stanford psychologist, call him Bill Blunte, invents the Deranged Anticipation and Perception Model ~or DAPM!, in which proxies for market misvaluation are used to predict security returns. Imagine the euphoria when researchers discovered that these mispricing proxies...
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...Copyright Salman Rushdie, 1988 All rights reserved VIKING Published by the Penguin Group Viking Penguin Inc., 40 West 23rd Street, New York, New York 10010, U.S.A. Penguin Books Ltd, 27 Wrights Lane, London W8 5TZ, England Penguin Books Australia Ltd. Ringwood, Victoria, Australia Penguin Books Canada Ltd, 2801 John Street, Markham, Ontario, Canada L3R 1B4 Penguin Books (N.Z.) Ltd, 182-190, Wairau Road, Auckland ro, New Zealand Penguin Books Ltd, Registered Offices: Harmondsworth, Middlesex, England Published in 1989 by Viking Penguin Inc. For Marianne Contents I The Angel Gibreel II Mahound III Ellowen Deeowen IV Ayesha V A City Visible but Unseen VI Return to Jahilia VII The Angel Azraeel VIII The Parting of the Arabian Seas IX A Wonderful Lamp Satan, being thus confined to a vagabond, wandering, unsettled condition, is without any certain abode; for though he has, in consequence of his angelic nature, a kind of empire in the liquid waste or air, yet this is certainly part of his punishment, that he is . . . without any fixed place, or space, allowed him to rest the sole of his foot upon. Daniel Defoe, _The History of the Devil_ I The Angel Gibreel "To be born again," sang Gibreel Farishta tumbling from the heavens, "first you have to die. Hoji! Hoji! To land upon the bosomy earth, first one needs to fly. Tat-taa! Taka-thun! How to ever smile again, if first you won't cry? How to win the darling's love, mister, without a sigh? Baba, if you want to get born again...
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...Supernatural: The Life of William Branham Book 6: The Prophet and His Revelation 1960 – 1965 by Owen Jorgensen 1 Acknowledgments: In a project of this magnitude, it is understandable that I should owe many people a debt of gratitude for their help. First of all I want to thank Pearry Green for his vision, his encouragement and his efforts in publishing and distributing these books. I also want to thank Saundra Miles, David Buckley, Jay Weber, and the other people who spent many hours editing and proof reading the six manuscripts in this series. Their suggestions helped to make this a better book and a more accurate account of William Branham‘s life. Also, I want to thank Steven and Kathy Strooh, who put these books into audio format for all those people who would rather listen than read. I must certainly thank those people who have translated these books into their native languages: Spanish, Portuguese, French, German, Russian, Norwegian, Hindi, and many other languages. Supernatural: the Life of William Branham took me 17 years to complete. I was 34 when I started and 51 when I finished. To put that into perspective, my four children were in grade school when I began writing this biography. By the time I finished, three of my children were married and I had nine grandchildren. During the 17 years I worked on this project, my life had its ups and downs. I want to thank everyone who prayed for me during those 17 years. Finally I want to thank my four children—Benaiah...
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...Th e T yranny of Gui lt • Pa s c a l B ru c k n e r Translated from the French by s t ev e n r e n da l l The tyranny of Guilt An Essay on Western Masochism • P r i n c e t o n u n i v e r si t y P r e s s Princeton and Oxford english translation copyright © 2010 by Princeton university Press First published as La tyrannie de la pénitence: essai sur le masochisme occidental by Pascal Bruckner, copyright © 2006 by Grasset & Fasquelle Published by Princeton university Press, 41 William street, Princeton, new Jersey 08540 in the united kingdom: Princeton university Press, 6 oxford street, Woodstock, oxfordshire OX20 1TW press.princeton.edu all rights reserved library of congress cataloging-in-Publication data Bruckner, Pascal. [tyrannie de la pénitence. english] The tyranny of guilt: an essay on Western masochism / Pascal Bruckner; translated from the French by steven rendall. p. cm. includes index. isBn 978-0-691-14376-7 (cloth : alk. paper) 1. civilization, Western— 20th century. 2. civilization, Western—21st century. 3. international relations—Moral and ethical aspects. 4. Western countries—Foreign relations. 5. Western countries—intellectual life. 6. Guilt 7. self-hate (Psychology) 8. World politics. i. title. CB245.B7613 2010 909’.09821--dc22 2009032666 British library cataloging-in-Publication data is available cet ouvrage, publié dans le cadre d’un programme d’aide à la publication, bénéficie du soutien du Ministère des affaires étrangères et du service...
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...NEW EDITION HIGH SCHOOL English Grammar & Composition BY WREN & MARTIN (With New Appendices) REVISED BY N.D.V. PRASADA RAO S. CHAND Page i New Edition HIGH SCHOOL ENGLISH GRAMMAR AND COMPOSITION By P.C. WREN, MA. (OXON) and H. MARTIN, M.A. (OXON), O.B.E. Revised By N.D.V. PRASADA RAO, M.A., D.T.E., Ph.D. Dear Students, Beware of fake/pirated editions. Many of our best selling titles have been unlawfully printed by unscrupulous persons. Your sincere effort in this direction may stop piracy and save intellectuals' rights. For the genuine book check the 3-D hologram which gives a rainbow effect. S. CHAND AN ISO 9001: 2000 COMPANY S. CHAND & COMPANY LTD. RAM NAGAR, NEW DELHI -110 055 Page iii PREFACE TO THE NEW EDITION Wren and Martin's monumental work High School English Grammar and Composition now appears in two editions. One is a de luxe edition, illustrated in full-colour, and the other is an ordinary edition without illustrations. The material in the book has been further updated where called for. It has been felt necessary in particular to revise some material in the chapters dealing with adjectives, active and passive voice, articles and prepositions. Appendix I, which deals with American English, has been expanded. Appendix II has been replaced with a newer set of tests covering the important areas of grammar. It was in the year 1972 that the shrewd visionary Mr. Shyam Lai Gupta obtained the permission of Manecji Cooper Education Trust for the revision of this book...
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...Rastafari This page intentionally left blank Rastafari From Outcasts to Culture Bearers Ennis Barrington Edmonds 2003 198 Madison Avenue, New York, New York 10016 Oxford University Press is a department of the University of Oxford It furthers the University's objective of excellence in research, scholarship, and education by publishing worldwide in Oxford New York Auckland Bangkok Buenos Aires Cape Town Chennai Dar es Salaam Delhi Hong Kong Istanbul Karachi Kolkata Kuala Lumpur Madrid Melbourne Mexico City Mumbai Nairobi São Paulo Shanghai Taipei Tokyo Toronto Oxford is a registered trade mark of Oxford University Press in the UK and in certain other countries Copyright © 2003 by Ennis Barrington Edmonds The moral rights of the authors have been asserted Database right Oxford University Press (maker) All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted, in any form or by any means, without the prior permission in writing of Oxford University Press, or as expressly permitted by law, or under terms agreed with the appropriate reprographics rights organization. Enquiries concerning reproduction outside the scope of the above should be sent to the Rights Department, Oxford University Press, at the address above You must not circulate this book in any other binding or cover and you must impose this same condition on any acquirer Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Edmonds...
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...Barack Obama Dreams from My Father “For we are strangers before them, and sojourners, as were all our fathers. 1 CHRONICLES 29:15 PREFACE TO THE 2004 EDITION A LMOST A DECADE HAS passed since this book was first published. As I mention in the original introduction, the opportunity to write the book came while I was in law school, the result of my election as the first African-American president of the Harvard Law Review. In the wake of some modest publicity, I received an advance from a publisher and went to work with the belief that the story of my family, and my efforts to understand that story, might speak in some way to the fissures of race that have characterized the American experience, as well as the fluid state of identitythe leaps through time, the collision of cultures-that mark our modern life. Like most first-time authors, I was filled with hope and despair upon the book’s publication-hope that the book might succeed beyond my youthful dreams, despair that I had failed to say anything worth saying. The reality fell somewhere in between. The reviews were mildly favorable. People actually showed up at the readings my publisher arranged. The sales were underwhelming. And, after a few months, I went on with the business of my life, certain that my career as an author would be short-lived, but glad to have survived the process with my dignity more or less intact. I had little time for reflection over the next ten years. I ran a voter registration project in...
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