...1 1 . For Nassim Nicholas Taleb, black swans underlie almost everything about our world, from the rise of religions to events in our own personal lives. A BLACK SWAN Why do we not acknowledge the phenomenon of black swans until after they occur? Part of the answer, according to Taleb, is that humans are hardwired to learn specifics when they should be focused on generalities. We concentrate on things we already know and time and time again fail to take into consideration what we don't know. We are, therefore, unable to truly estimate oppor tunities, too vulnerable to the impulse to simplify, narrate, and categorize, and not open enough to rewarding those who can imagine the "impossible." For years, Taleb has studied how we fool our selves into thinking we know more than we actually do. We restrict our thinking to the irrelevant and inconsequential, while large events continue to surprise us and shape our world. Now, in this reve latory book, Taleb explains everything we know about what we don't know. He offers surprisingly simple tricks for dealing with black swans and ben efiting from them. Elegant, startling, and universal in its applica tions, The Black Swan will change the way you look at the world. Taleb is a vastly entertaining writer, with wit, irreverence, and unusual stories to tell. He has a polymathic command of subjects ranging from cognitive science to business to...
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...COLLAPSE HOW S O C I E T I E S CHOOSE TO FAIL OR S U C C E E D JARED DIAMOND VIK ING VIKING Published by the Penguin Group Penguin Group (USA) Inc., 375 Hudson Street, New York, New York 10014, U.S.A. Penguin Group (Canada), 10 Alcorn Avenue, Toronto, Ontario, Canada M4V 3B2 (a division of Pearson Penguin Canada Inc.) Penguin Books Ltd, 80 Strand, London WC2R ORL, England Penguin Ireland, 25 St. Stephen's Green, Dublin 2, Ireland (a division of Penguin Books Ltd) Penguin Books Australia Ltd, 250 Camberwell Road, Camberwell, Victoria 3124, Australia (a division of Pearson Australia Group Pty Ltd) Penguin Books India Pvt Ltd, 11 Community Centre, Panchsheel Park, New Delhi—110 017, India Penguin Group (NZ), Cnr Airborne and Rosedale Roads, Albany, Auckland 1310, New Zealand (a division of Pearson New Zealand Ltd) Penguin Books (South Africa) (Pty) Ltd, 24 Sturdee Avenue, Rosebank, Johannesburg 2196, South Africa Penguin Books Ltd, Registered Offices: 80 Strand, London WC2R ORL, England First published in 2005 by Viking Penguin, a member of Penguin Group (USA) Inc. 13579 10 8642 Copyright © Jared Diamond, 2005 All rights reserved Maps by Jeffrey L. Ward LIBRARY OF CONGRESS CATALOGING IN PUBLICATION DATA Diamond, Jared M. Collapse: how societies choose to fail or succeed/Jared Diamond. p. cm. Includes index. ISBN 0-670-03337-5 1. Social history—Case studies. 2. Social change—Case studies. 3. Environmental policy— Case studies. I. Title. HN13. D5 2005 304.2'8—dc22...
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...Waltzing Matilda - What is a Jumbuck Who was Dan Dare's greatest enemy in the Eagle What is Dick Grayson better known as What was given on the fourth day of Christmas What was Skippy ( on TV ) What does a funambulist do What is the name of Dennis the Menace's dog What are bactrians and dromedaries Who played The Fugitive Who was the King of Swing Who was the first man to fly across the channel Who starred as Rocky Balboa In which war was the charge of the Light Brigade Who invented the television Who would use a mashie niblick In the song who killed Cock Robin What do deciduous trees do In golf what name is given to the No 3 wood If you has caries who would you consult What other name is Mellor’s famously known by What did Jack Horner pull from his pie How many feet in a fathom which film had song Springtime for Hitler Name the legless fighter pilot of ww2 What was the name of inn in Treasure Island What was Erich Weiss better known as Who sailed in the Nina -...
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...Manager: Allison Powell Designer: Steve Druding Compositor: Maryland Composition/Absolute Service Inc. Ninth Edition Copyright © 2011 Lippincott Williams & Wilkins, a Wolters Kluwer business © 2007 Lippincott Williams & Wilkins, © 2004 Lippincott Williams & Wilkins, © 2000 Lippincott Williams & Wilkins, © 1996 Lippincott-Raven, © 1992, 1988, 1983, 1979 JB Lippincott Co. 351 West Camden Street Baltimore, MD 21201 Printed in the People’s Republic of China All rights reserved. This book is protected by copyright. No part of this book may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, including as photocopies or scanned-in or other electronic copies, or utilized by any information storage and retrieval system without written permission from the copyright owner, except for brief quotations embodied in critical articles and reviews. Materials appearing in this book prepared by individuals as part of their official duties as U.S. government employees are not covered by the above-mentioned copyright. To request permission, please contact Lippincott Williams & Wilkins at 530 Walnut Street, Philadelphia, PA 19106, via email at permissions@lww.com, or via web site at http://www.lww.com (products and services). Not authorized for sale in North America and the Caribbean. 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication...
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