An Undisputable Edge
The Indiana Pacers, the Golden State Warriors, and the Denver Nuggets… these three
NBA teams all made the playoffs last season. However, so did several other teams, so why mention these three? If we look back at their road to the postseason, these three squads have a significant difference in their win-loss record when compared to all the other teams: when playing at home, their records were far better as compared to when playing on the road. Let’s take a look at the Indiana Pacers. Going into the playoffs, this team was the third seed in the
Eastern Conference, a noteworthy achievement. However, when playing on the road, this team was mediocre throughout the season, ending up with a sub-500 record, 19-22 (ESPN). However, this squad seemed to sync and “click” when playing in Indianapolis, recording 30 home wins as opposed to only 11 losses, enabling them to clinch such a high seed in the playoffs. A similar pattern occurred in Golden State, seeded six due to their home record of 28-13, despite a road record of 19-22 (ESPN). The most astonishing team was the Denver Nuggets, who were also the three seed, but in the Western Conference. This squad managed to tally a whopping 38 wins at home to only three losses! With this near-perfect win-loss ratio, you must be questioning how they were not seeded number one. The answer lies in their struggle to achieve similar success while playing as the visiting team: the Nuggets had the same road record as the Pacers and
Warriors, an average 19-22 (ESPN). Due to this peculiar and intriguing stat, every time these three teams play at home, they become the favorite to win the game, regardless of who their opponent may be (even a powerhouse such as the Miami Heat or the Oklahoma City Thunder!).
These three teams had the most drastic discrepancy in their records, but the better records at home are not only present in these three teams. Every single team in the NBA this past season had more success at home rather than away. If there is still any doubt, in the past ten NBA seasons, only seven teams managed to obtain a better win-loss record on the road. To put it in other words, the chances of a squad having a better road record is 2.34%, approximately one out of 45. But how could playing as the local team make such a radical difference? Could it be due to the crowd, or the referees? Perhaps it is because of the travelling the road teams are forced to endure, causing exhaustion, or maybe simply a determined mindset instilled in the players to protect their “home turf”? These motives could explain why there is an inconsistency in the stats; it may be only one of the reasons mentioned above, or perhaps a combination, but one thing is for sure: the numbers do not lie.
Fans, if you are not aware, certainly make an impact in field goal and free-throw percentage. The difference is extremely notable in the field goal percentage, where the Miami
Heat, who led the league in field goal percentage at home with a 50.8% accuracy during the
2012-2013 NBA Season, dropped to 48.3% from the field, which still led the league in away field goal percentage, but would have been sixth in the league were we to compare it to home percentages (NBA ESPN). The San Antonio Spurs and the Los Angeles Clippers’ proportions dropped even more significantly, with the Spurs going from 49.7% to 46.5%, and the Clippers dropping from 49.3% to 46.3%. When we take a look at the free-throw percentages, a parallel pattern occurs. The Memphis Grizzlies maintained a league-average 77.8% free-throw percentage for the year when playing in the FedEx Forum (Grizzlies’ stadium). However, when playing elsewhere, they only managed to produce a 76.1%. Similarly, the Milwaukee Bucks shot free-throws at a 74.7% at home, and dropped to a whopping 71.8% when playing as the visiting team (NBA ESPN). Unmistakably, fans, through their noise presence and possible methods of intimidation, force visiting teams to struggle a bit more than the usual when it comes to field goal and free-throw percentages. Perhaps teams such as the Warriors and the Nuggets are way more successful when playing in their respective courts because of these fans, which not only provide energy and encouragement to their team, but deprive their opponent of their vitality and dynamism. Not only are home teams’ shooting percentages higher, but points, assists, rebounds, steals, blocks—every single stat—is higher for every team on average per game. As of the 2012-
2013 Regular Season, the league average for points per game was 99.5 points per game when playing at home. However, when playing as the away team, this number dropped all the way to only 96.2 points per game (NBA ESPN). Over the span of a season, this difference comes out to a difference of approximately 264 points per team, equaling a grand total of 7,930 points! To ensure this was not only a pattern which occurred this past season, during the season of 2010-
2011, a similar pattern ensued, with home teams scoring a ridiculous 100.8 points per game.
However, as the visiting squad, teams were only able to produce 97.6 points a game, again creating a difference of about 7,799 points (NBA ESPN). This pattern is steady for all other seasons as well.
Outside of points, this trend continues in all the other categories. The 2008-2009 NBA
Season had a league average of a difference of one and a half rebound advantage in favor of the local team per game, over a season equaling 123 rebounds, and a total rebound number of 3,690.
In assists, we see the same thing: the home squad with an advantage of one and a half assists per game, equaling a total difference between the two sides of 3,690 assists over the course of the season. Blocks per game did not have such a drastic distinction between home and away, 5.12 and 4.44 respectively, but still averages out to approximately 1,673 blocks over the course of a season for the entire league. The one exception to this recurring pattern happens when we approach the category of steals; the home team averaged 7.31 steals a game whereas away teams were able to record 7.18 steals a game, a minimal difference, but nonetheless home teams notched up 320 more total steals over the season (NBA ESPN).
A thought-provoking concept to consider would be if referees have anything to do with teams’ greater success at home. One way to discover this would be to analyze the average amount of fouls called by referees to teams at home as opposed to when they are playing as visitors. During this past season, in terms of free throws attempted, home teams average 22.7 per game and away teams average 21.7 per game. This translates to approximately 55,846 freethrows for home teams and 53,316 free-throws for away teams, creating a marginal difference of
2,530 free-throws over the course of the season (NBA Stuffer). Home teams do experience a slight advantage in fouls called in their favor, but not by too much. To assess this matter a bit further, we can see the tendencies of specific referees, and if they tend to call more fouls on home or away teams, providing the other with an advantage of getting free points at the line.
Using stats provided by NBA Stuffer, almost all referees tend to call slightly a few more fouls in favor of the home team, by a ratio of about 51.1:48.9. For instance, Zach Zarba and Rodney Mott illustrate this statement. Zarba officiated during 28 games of the 2012-2013 Season, calling about 42.1 fouls per game, totaling 1,179 fouls. Of these 1,179, 52.5% of them were given to the home team, equaling 619 of the fouls, leaving 560 fouls to be called for away teams (NBA
Stuffer). This margin—over a span of 28 games—results in 59 more fouls being called in favor of the local squads. Furthermore, Rodney Mott’s numbers are a bit more extreme. Mott provided his officiating services for 53 games of the 2012-2013 NBA Season, calling 39.3 fouls per game, totaling 2,083 fouls (NBA Stuffer). Percentage-wise, 52.3% of the fouls were called against the road team, resulting with a marginal difference of 95 fouls. Evidently, overall, referees do not account for much of the success experienced by home teams, but there is still a notable pattern.
As mentioned earlier, travel could also affect the success of teams. When you have a team, such as the Kings, who play every home game in the Sleep Train Arena located in
Sacramento, California, travel across the nation to face the Nets all the way out in Brooklyn,
New York, we may see a slight decrease in player performance. If we take the opposite scenario—have the Boston Celtics travel to California and face the Golden State Warriors— would we encounter the same situation? California operates on the Pacific Time Zone, whereas
New York and Massachusetts operate in the Eastern Time Zone, a three hour time difference. A few factors that could cause a decline in performance when having to travel long distances include sleep deprivation, which leads to exhaustion, and the fact that due to this divergence in the time difference, teams have to play at a different time. The Warriors and Kings, while playing at home, usually play at 7:30 p.m. Pacific Time, making it 10:30 p.m. for the East Coast.
On the other hand, when the Nets and Celtics play at home, they also play at 7:30 p.m., but according to Eastern Time, thus making it only 4:30 p.m. in the afternoon out in California and the rest of the West Coast. Now, if we take a look at the results from the 2007-2011 NBA
Seasons and analyze how the Kings fared against the Nets and how the Celtics performed against the Warriors, we see the following:
NBA Season Sacramento Kings (H/A) Boston Celtics (H/A)
2007-2008 Won by 34/Won by 5 Won by 23/Lost by 2
2008-2009 Lost by 2/Lost by 8 Won by 8/Lost by 10
2009-2010 Won by 13/Lost by 14 Won by 14/Lost by 14
2010-2011 Won by 5/Lost by 6 Won by 4/Won by 22
As portrayed by the chart, the numbers have a clear correlation: teams perform better when not required to travel. This pattern was consistent for all eight games played between the Kings and
Nets; however, for the Celtics-Warriors series it was only reliable for the first seven. The Celtics defeated the Warriors by a significantly larger margin when they played in Golden State during the 2010-2011 Season. There is a reason for this outlier. During this season, the game in Golden
State took place Tuesday, February 22, 2011, two days after the conclusion of All-Star Weekend, which was held in Los Angeles, California (NBA). This means the Celtics team was already in
California for the days leading up to their game, which means the factors of sleep deprivation and exhaustion were not present. Also, there is no impact of jetlag here either since they have already grown accustomed to the Pacific Time Zone. Therefore, we can determine that travel does indeed influence the performances of teams significantly.
Besides the notions of fans, referee prejudice, and the influence of travel it is interesting to compare the success of key, star players and if they are affected by the location of the game.
Stars such as Kevin Durant, Carmelo Anthony, LeBron James, and Chris Paul all productively uphold great stat lines consistently over the course of a season. One would suspect that their performances would nonetheless be slightly superior when playing at home. However, when reviewing the statistics, a surprising result awaits. All four have almost identical stat lines when either playing at home or away (see chart below). In fact, James and Durant mostly performed better while playing away from home! James’ numbers are close to duplicates; all categories are within 0.6 of a point from each other (HoopsStats). Durant’s numbers are a bit more extreme, considering that at home, he scored 26.9 points per game, whereas as a visitor he managed to increase his score-line to 30.1 points per game! At that rate, he would have been the leading scorer in the league, but instead, averaged with his home numbers, fell behind Anthony for the scoring title. Durant also had more steals and better shooting percentages while being away from the Chesapeake Energy Arena in Oklahoma City. Anthony and Paul’s numbers were more closely related to what is expected, Anthony having lower points, assists, steals, and free throw percentage when playing away from Madison Square Garden (HoopsStats). Paul had better stats at home for every single stat except for rebounds. However, the numbers were still very close to one another. In other words, star players are not affected much by the setting of the game.
Category Carmelo Anthony
(H/A)
Kevin Durant
(H/A)
LeBron James
(H/A)
Chris Paul (H/A)
PPG 29.0/28.3 26.9/30.1 26.4/26.8 17.5/17.4
RPG 6.6/7.1 8.2/7.9 7.8/7.4 3.5/4.1
APG 2.6/2.2 4.9/4.7 7.1/7.1 9.9/8.8
BPG 0.4/0.5 1.4/1.2 0.8/1.0 0.2/0.1
SPG 0.9/0.7 1.3/1.5 1.4/2.0 2.4/2.3
FG % 43.9/44.5 49.6/50.7 56.7/52.8 49.3/47.9
FT% 85.1/82.3 88.9/90.2 77.9/72.9 93.1/82.9
Although stars may not seem to be intimidated by playing as the visiting team, perhaps secondary players may be affected by whether they play in front of their home crowd or not.
Players like Jrue Holiday and Kemba Walker had significantly better all-around stats when playing for their respective fans. Both of these athletes were the second option when it came to their offense; Holiday usually fed the ball to the big man Andrew Bynum in the post and Walker had shooting sensation Ben Gordon, who could knock down his jumper from anywhere on the court, including beyond the arc. If we look at a similar chart to the one above, we see Holiday and Walker’s stats:
Category Jrue Holiday (H/A) Kemba Walker (H/A)
PPG 19.5/15.9 19.8/15.7
RPG 4.3/4.1 3.5/3.4
APG 8.3/7.7 6.2/5.2
BPG 0.2/0.6 0.5/0.3
SPG 1.7/1.5 2.1/1.8
FG % 45.6/40.2 45.5/38.9
FT % 76.7/73.5 80.6/78.8
Holiday, in the 2012-2013 Season, while in Philadelphia, had a hefty 19.5 points per game while shooting 45.6% from the floor and 76.7% from the free-throw line, and was one of the top players at dishing the ball out with 8.3 assists per game (HoopsStats). Not only that, but he made an effort on the defensive side of the ball as well, collecting 4.3 rebounds a game and notching up almost two steals as well. Despite these above-par numbers, outside of Philadelphia we have a different story. Holiday only managed to sink close to 16 points a game, at a percentage of only
40.2% and 73.5% from the charity strike (HoopsStats). Not only did these numbers go down, but his assists dropped to 7.7 per game and he did not collect as many rebounds or steals either.
Kemba Walker’s numbers go down the same path. Walker at home had numbers that parallel those of Holiday’s; 19.8 points, 6.2 assists, 3.5 rebounds, and 2.1 steals per game with a field goal percentage of 45.4% and 80.6% from the free-throw line. But when Walker was not in
Charlotte, he only produced 15.7 points, 5.2 assists, 3.4 rebounds, and 1.8 steals, with field goal and free throw percentages of 38.9% and 78.8%, respectively (HoopsStats). Clearly, the home crowd boosts the morale, and in turn performance, of players who do not “carry” their team and are not placed in the spotlight.
Society differs on the reasons as to why teams are able to perform better when playing with a home-court advantage. Some argue it may be due to the referees holding a bias towards the local team while others may say the fans play a big role by lowering opponent’s shooting percentages. Others still claim that players travelling from their hometowns to other cities, especially when they are across the nation (such as the Sacramento Kings traveling to Boston to face the Celtics), visiting athletes suffer from exhaustion, lack of sleep, and jetlag, which diminishes their playing ability. After reflecting on all of the statistics from numerous teams, players, and seasons, it becomes clear that it does not come down to only one of these statements proving the other ones wrong, but rather all of them combining to cause the distinction in the numbers. Individually, these explanations would create a very slight, if at all, distinction in the numbers between home and away games; but altogether, they combine to cause a discrepancy in the stats and thus allow for the role of home court to be significant. Come playoff time, not only are the higher seeds supposedly superior to the lower ones, but they receive an extra game played on their home court, which provides them with an undisputable edge.
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Works Cited
“2012-2013 NBA Regular Season Referee Stats." NBA Stuffer. N.p., n.d. Web. 02 Dec. 2013.
“Boston Celtics Schedule/Results." ESPN. N.p., n.d. Web. 07 Dec. 2013.
"NBA Player Statistics 2012-2013." HoopsStats. N.p., n.d. Web. 02 Dec. 2013.
"NBA Team Offense Per Game Statistics 2012-2013." ESPN. N.p., n.d. Web. 08 Dec. 2013.
"NBA Standings- 2012-13." ESPN. N.p., n.d. Web. 03 Dec. 2013.
"Sacramento Kings Schedule/Results." ESPN. N.p., n.d. Web. 07 Dec. 2013.