Produce a case study file on Global Warming in the Arctic
You should include: i. A map/definition of the Arctic ii. Evidence for the extent of warming iii. Key environmental, social and economic changes iv. Are there any advantages to global warming in the Arctic? v. Global concerns.
Definition
The Arctic is a polar region at the top of the world in the northernmost region of the Earth. The Arctic consists of the Arctic Ocean and parts of Canada, Russia, the United States, Denmark, Norway, Sweden, Finland, and Iceland. Evidence for the extent of global warming
The average Artic temperatures have risen at 2 times compared to the of the world with the increase being 3-4°c in the last 50 years. In the next 100 years people predict that temperature of land will rise by 3-5°c and 7°c over the oceans.
The ice withdrawal was at it smallest ever with its biggest ever retreat since records began, US scientists have confirmed that this is true. Also the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) said the extent of the retreat was 4.13 million sq km. which breaks all previous records breaking the previous record of 5.32 million sq km in 2005. This allowed the Northwest Passage to be declared open.
There are concerns that Arctic will shrink, and with the melting glaciers and other ice in Greenland, could soon contribute to a substantial rise in sea levels worldwide. And sea levels have risen significantly with the sea levels rising from a mix of mountain and subpolar glaciers have contributed on average in 1996 around 0.5 mm/yr and increasing sharply 2 mm/yr in 1998 increasing from an average of about 0.35 mm/yr since 1960. About half of all analytical models show that there will be near complete ice loss by 2100 but it could happen as soon as 2040 which some models predict. The Catlin Arctic Survey states that by 2029 there will be no more summer ice.
These two graphs to the right show how the loss in arctic sea every year with 2012 being the most severe leads to an increase in global sea level increase as the two graphs
Evidence of for the extent of global warming as Storglaciären lost 29% of its mass between 1910 and 1980, which the two images show.
Key environmental, economic and social changes
There are many key impacts on the environment, and these vary in consequences. One of these environmental changes would be the tree line going further north and also the ability to grow to a higher altitude than before, this would mean more CO2 would be absorbed but it would also threaten natural species that the trees were encroaching on, possibly leading to the extinction of these species. Tundra ecosystems in the arctic would be lost as the environment would no longer be as hostile, and as the climate would warm up then new species would start to live there. With the like of the spruce bark beetle being one of the species that would likely spread with an increase in temperature and would put food chains under threat even changing them. Permafrost will unfreeze and add extra methane into the atmosphere which is really bad as methane is 23x stronger than CO2 and if the permafrost was to melt then there would be an increase of up to 10x the amount that is presently in the atmosphere. Another consequence of the global warming would be the loss of phytoplankton in the warming seas, which would then have a negative multiplier effect as you go up the food chain, as the reduction would reduce the number of zooplankton resulting in fewer amounts of small fish which both seals and larger fish such as cod or halibut feed on. This would reduce the numbers available to survive with the reduced food supply so the number of species would reduce dramatically and effect polar bears as there has been a decrease in food and would result in species facing extinction. Combined with the ice melting meaning that polar bears have a shorter hunting season to hunt fewer seals or fish meaning that they have an increased chance of catching diseases and thus means they face a real threat of extinction. Socio-Economic changes are significant for the Inuit population on the arctic all 155,000 are facing increasing problems. Inuit men for three months a year go out to fish for three months a year on the ice and with the increasing temperature these ice sheets are becoming thinner and are making fishing a lot more dangerous with the increased chances of falling through the ice. 80% of the Inuit population hunt caribou, fish and marine mammals for a living. With the ice decreasing in depth then the Inuit’s will rely on caribou more and more which puts more pressure on caribou stocks, with 70% of the Inuit population rely on income from hunting meaning that a decrease in stocks either fish or caribou hit the income hard. Also the loss of ice has meant that Inuit villages are becoming at a higher risk of flooding due the ice use to protect them has melted away, forcing people further inwards as they are trying to escape from ocean waves and storms. So with the increased risk of flooding has meant that 24 Inuit villages are threatened by flooding.
Are there any advantages to global warming in the arctic? Global warming will benefit most Arctic species, scientists reported in the journal PLOS One. That global warming will allow most Arctic species to expand their habitats, and no species are expected to go extinct. As all the species in higher altitudes or further north would grow accustomed to the change in temperature and the reduction of one prey to be replaced by another. Also the climate would become slightly milder so the growing seasons would last longer meaning that the agricultural industry would grow and the stain on other production areas would be reduced as areas that couldn’t grow plants could now. Creating brand new shipping routes in winter as the Northwest Passage through northern Canada as the ice prevented the route through winter before as the ice made the route impenetrable, however with global warming this would be possible as it would allow shorter journeys saving fuel and time. Also in winter it would require less money being spent and less fuels being burnt in winter to keep houses warm, also this would result in fewer deaths occurring in winter due to them being warmer.
