...Answering an Easier Question Part II. Heuristics and Biases 10. The Law of Small Numbers 11. Anchors 12. The Science of Availability 13. Availability, Emotion, and Risk 14. Tom W’s Specialty 15. Linda: Less is More 16. Causes Trump Statistics 17. Regression to the Mean 18. Taming Intuitive Predictions Part III. Overconfidence 19. The Illusion of Understanding 20. The Illusion of Validity 21. Intuitions Vs. Formulas 22. Expert Intuition: When Can We Trust It? 23. The Outside View 24. The Engine of Capitalism Part IV. Choices 25. Bernoulli’s Errors 26. Prospect Theory 27. The Endowment Effect 28. Bad Events 29. The Fourfold Pattern 30. Rare Events 31. Risk Policies 32. Keeping Score 33. Reversals 34. Frames and Reality Part V. Two Selves 35. Two Selves 36. Life as a Story 37. Experienced Well-Being 38. Thinking About Life Conclusions Appendix Uncertainty A: Judgment Under Appendix B: Choices, Values, and Frames Acknowledgments Notes Index Introduction Every author, I suppose, has in mind a setting in which readers of his or her work could benefit from having read it. Mine is the proverbial office watercooler, where opinions are shared and gossip is exchanged. I hope to enrich the vocabulary that people use when they talk about the judgments and choices of others, the company’s new policies, or a colleague’s investment decisions. Why be concerned with gossip? Because it is much easier, as well as far more enjoyable, to identify and label the mistakes of others...
Words: 189666 - Pages: 759
...UNIVERSITY Published by McGraw-Hill, an imprint of The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., 1221 Avenue of the Americas, New York, NY 10020. Copyright © 2009, 2005, 2002, 1999, by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced or distributed in any form or by any means, or stored in a database or retrieval system, without the prior written consent of The McGrawHill Companies, Inc., including, but not limited to, in any network or other electronic storage or transmission, or broadcast for distance learning. This book is printed on acid-free paper. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 DOC/DOC 0 9 8 ISBN: 978-0-07-340737-1 MHID: 0-07-340737-2 Editor in Chief: Michael Ryan Editorial Director: Beth Mejia Sponsoring Editor: Mark Georgiev Marketing Manager: Pamela Cooper Editorial Coordinator: Briana Porco Production Editors: Melissa Williams/Melanie Field, Strawberry Field Publishing Cover Designer: Ashley Bedell Cover Photo: © Dan Trist/Corbis Media Project Manager: Thomas Brierly Production Supervisor: Louis Swaim Composition: This text was set in 10.5/12.5 Goudy by Aptara, Inc. Printing: Printed on 45# New Era Matte by R.R. Donnelley & Sons, Inc. Credits: The credits section for this book is on page 647, following the Answer Key in the back of the book, and is considered an extension of the copyright page. Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Howard-Snyder, Frances The power of logic—/Frances Howard-Snyder, Daniel Howard-Snyder, Ryan Wasserman—4th...
Words: 173379 - Pages: 694
...fourth EDItION fourth EDItION This clear, learner-friendly text helps today’s students bridge the gap between Its comprehensiveness allows instructors to tailor the material to their individual teaching styles, resulting in an exceptionally versatile text. Highlights of the Fourth Edition: Additional readings and essays in a new Appendix as well as in Chapters 7 and 8 nearly double the number of readings available for critical analysis and classroom discussion. An online chapter, available on the instructor portion of the book’s Web site, addresses critical reading, a vital skill for success in college and beyond. Visit www.mhhe.com/bassham4e for a wealth of additional student and instructor resources. Bassham I Irwin Nardone I Wallace New and updated exercises and examples throughout the text allow students to practice and apply what they learn. MD DALIM #1062017 12/13/09 CYAN MAG YELO BLK Chapter 12 features an expanded and reorganized discussion of evaluating Internet sources. Critical Thinking thinking, using real-world examples and a proven step-by-step approach. A student ' s Introduction A student's Introduction everyday culture and critical thinking. It covers all the basics of critical Critical Thinking Ba ssha m I Irwin I Nardone I Wall ace CRITICAL THINKING A STUDENT’S INTRODUCTION FOURTH EDITION Gregory Bassham William Irwin Henry Nardone James M. Wallace King’s College TM bas07437_fm_i-xvi.indd i 11/24/09 9:53:56 AM TM Published by McGraw-Hill...
Words: 246535 - Pages: 987
...The London School of Economics and Political Science THE ROLE OF CIVIL SOCIETY IN THE DEMOCRATISATION OF GLOBAL GOVERNANCE INSTITUTIONS: From ‘Soft Power’ to Collective Decision-Making? Saif Al-Islam Alqadhafi A thesis submitted to the Department of Philosophy of the London School of Economics for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy, London, September 2007 Declaration I certify that the thesis I have presented for examination for the MPhil/PhD degree of the London School of Economics and Political Science is solely my own work other than where I have clearly indicated that it is the work of others (in which case the extent of any work carried out jointly by me and any other person is clearly identified in it). The copyright of this thesis rests with the author. Quotation from it is permitted, provided that full acknowledgement is made. This thesis may not be reproduced without the prior written consent of the author. I warrant that this authorisation does not, to the best of my belief, infringe the rights of any third party. 2 Abstract This dissertation analyses the problem of how to create more just and democratic global governing institutions, exploring the approach of a more formal system of collective decision-making by the three main actors in global society: governments, civil society and the business sector. The thesis seeks to make a contribution by presenting for discussion an addition to the system of international governance that is morally...
Words: 127847 - Pages: 512
...King’s College TM TM Published by McGraw-Hill, an imprint of The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., 1221 Avenue of the Americas, New York, NY 10020. Copyright © 2011, 2008, 2005, 2002. All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced or distributed in any form or by any means, or stored in a database or retrieval system, without the prior written consent of The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., including, but not limited to, in any network or other electronic storage or transmission, or broadcast for distance learning. This book is printed on acid-free paper. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 DOC/DOC 0 ISBN: 978-0-07-340743-2 MHID: 0-07-340743-7 Vice President, Editorial: Michael Ryan Director, Editorial: Beth Mejia Sponsoring Editor: Mark Georgiev Marketing Manager: Pam Cooper Managing Editor: Nicole Bridge Developmental Editor: Phil Butcher Project Manager: Lindsay Burt Manuscript Editor: Maura P. Brown Design Manager: Margarite Reynolds Cover Designer: Laurie Entringer Production Supervisor: Louis Swaim Composition: 11/12.5 Bembo by MPS Limited, A Macmillan Company Printing: 45# New Era Matte, R. R. Donnelley & Sons Cover Image: © Brand X/JupiterImages Credits: The credits section for this book begins on page C-1 and is considered an extension of the copyright page. Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Critical thinking : a student’s introduction / Gregory Bassham . . . [et al.].—4th ed. p. cm. Includes bibliographical references and index. ISBN 978-0-07-340743-2...
Words: 240232 - Pages: 961
...Philosophy and Design Pieter E. Vermaas • Peter Kroes Andrew Light • Steven A. Moore Philosophy and Design From Engineering to Architecture Pieter E. Vermaas Delft University of Technology Delft the Netherlands Andrew Light University of Washington Seattle USA Peter Kroes Delft University of Technology Delft the Netherlands Steven A. Moore University of Texas Austin USA ISBN 978-1-4020-6590-3 e-ISBN 978-1-4020-6591-0 Library of Congress Control Number: 2007937486 © 2008 Springer Science + Business Media B.V. No part of this work may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, microfilming, recording or otherwise, without written permission from the Publisher, with the exception of any material supplied specifically for the purpose of being entered and executed on a computer system, for exclusive use by the purchaser of the work. Printed on acid-free paper. 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 springer.com Contents List of Contributors . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Design in Engineering and Architecture: Towards an Integrated Philosophical Understanding . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Peter Kroes, Andrew Light, Steven A. Moore, and Pieter E. Vermaas Part I Engineering Design ix 1 Design, Use, and the Physical and Intentional Aspects of Technical Artifacts. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ...
Words: 165744 - Pages: 663