Free Essay

Assignment 1

In:

Submitted By vx2tb0
Words 4865
Pages 20
Introduction to Management Science, 10e (Taylor) Chapter 15 Forecasting 1) A trend is a gradual, long-term, up or down movement of demand. Answer Diff: 1 Page Ref: 682 Main Heading: Forecasting Components Key words: trend, forecasting components 2) A seasonal pattern is an up-and-down repetitive movement within a trend occurring periodically. Answer Diff: 2 Page Ref: 682 Main Heading: Forecasting Components Key words: seasonal pattern, forecasting components 3) Random variations are movements that are not predictable and follow no pattern. Answer Diff: 2 Page Ref: 682 Main Heading: Forecasting Components Key words: random variations, forecasting components 4) The basic types of forecasting methods include time series, regression, and qualitative methods. Answer Diff: 2 Page Ref: 683 Main Heading: Forecasting Components Key words: types of forecasting methods 5) Time series is a category of statistical techniques that uses historical data to predict future behavior. Answer Diff: 1 Page Ref: 683 Main Heading: Forecasting Components Key words: time series analysis 6) Regression methods attempt to develop a mathematical relationship between the item being forecast and factors that cause it to behave the way it does. Answer Diff: 2 Page Ref: 683 Main Heading: Forecasting Components Key words: regression methods

7) Qualitative methods use management judgment, expertise, and opinion to make forecasts. Answer Diff: 2 Page Ref: 684 Main Heading: Forecasting Components Key words: qualitative methods 8) Qualitative methods are the least common type of forecasting method for the long-term strategic planning process. Answer Diff: 1 Page Ref: 684 Main Heading: Forecasting Components Key words: qualitative methods 9) A cycle is an up and down movement in demand that repeats itself in less than 1 year. Answer Diff: 1 Page Ref: 682 Main Heading: Forecasting Components Key words: regression methods 10) Seasonal patterns are observed only during the 4 seasons - winter, spring, summer and fall. Answer Diff: 1 Page Ref: 682 Main Heading: Forecasting Components Key words: time series methods 11) The Delphi develops a consensus forecast about what will occur in the future. Answer Diff: 2 Page Ref: 685 Main Heading: Forecasting Components Key words: Delphi method, qualitative methods 12) Technological forecasting helps determine the technological feasibility of new products by surveying large numbers of consumers. Answer Diff: 1 Page Ref: 685 Main Heading: Forecasting Components Key words: technological forecasting 13) Irregular variations exhibit no pattern. Answer Diff: 1 Page Ref: 683 Main Heading: Forecasting Components Key words: forecasting components, irregular variation

14) Data cannot exhibit both trend and cyclical patterns. Answer Diff: 1 Page Ref: 683 Main Heading: Forecasting Components Key words: forecasting components, trend, cyclical 15) Time series methods assume that what has occurred in the past will continue to occur in the future. Answer Diff: 1 Page Ref: 685 Main Heading: Time Series Methods Key words: time series methods 16) Moving averages are good for stable demand with no pronounced behavioral patterns. Answer Diff: 2 Page Ref: 685 Main Heading: Time Series Methods Key words: moving averages 17) Longer-period moving averages react more slowly to recent demand changes than do shorter-period moving averages. Answer Diff: 2 Page Ref: 687 Main Heading: Time Series Methods Key words: moving averages 18) Shorter-period moving averages react more slowly to recent demand changes than do longer-period moving averages. Answer Diff: 2 Page Ref: 687 Main Heading: Time Series Methods Key words: moving averages 19) In a weighted moving average, weights must sum to one. Answer Diff: 1 Page Ref: 688 Main Heading: Time Series Methods Key words: moving averages, weighted moving average, time series methods 20) Adjusted exponential smoothing is an exponential smoothing forecast adjusted for seasonality. Answer Diff: 1 Page Ref: 693 Main Heading: Time Series Methods Key words: adjusted exponential smoothing

21) If average forecast error is positive, it indicates that the forecast is biased high. Answer Diff: 2 Page Ref: 701 Main Heading: Time Series Methods Key words: forecast error 22) __________ is a gradual long term upward or downward movement of demand. Answer: Diff: 2 Page Ref: 682 Main Heading: Time Series Key words: trend 23) A(n) __________ forecast typically encompass a period longer than one years. Answer: Diff: 2 Page Ref: 682 Main Heading: Time Series Key words: long range forecasts 24) __________ error is the sum of the forecast errors. Answer Diff: 2 Page Ref: 701 Main Heading: Time Series Key words: medium range forecasts 25) A(n) __________ forecast encompasses the immediate future, is concerned with daily activities of the firm and does not go beyond one or two months in to the future. Answer: Diff: 2 Page Ref: 682 Main Heading: Time Series Key words: short range forecasts 26) A(n) __________ is an up-and-down repetitive movement within a trend occurring periodically. Answer: Diff: 2 Page Ref: 682 Main Heading: Time Series Key words: seasonal pattern, forecasting components 27) __________ relates demand to two or more independent variables. Answer: Diff: 2 Page Ref: 712 Main Heading: Time Series Key words: multiple linear regression analysis

28) One problem with multiple regression is __________, which is a measure of the amount of "overlapping" information about he dependent variable that's provided by several independent variables. Answer: Diff: 2 Page Ref: 715 Main Heading: Time Series Key words: simple exponential smoothing 29) Exponential smoothing forecasts are more sensitive or reactive to the changes in demand as the value of the smoothing constant, α __________. Answer: Diff: 2 Page Ref: 690 Main Heading: Time Series Key words: simple exponential smoothing 30) The closer the value of α is to zero, the __________ will be the dampening or smoothing effect. Answer: Diff: 2 Page Ref: 690 Main Heading: Time Series Key words: simple exponential smoothing 31) __________ measures the strength of the relationship between two variables. Answer Diff: 2 Page Ref: 708 Main Heading: Time Series Key words: moving average method 32) The __________ is the percentage of variation in the dependent variable that results from the independent variable. Answer Diff: 2 Page Ref: 710 Main Heading: Time Series Key words: naive forecasting method 33) Longer period moving averages react more __________ to recent demand changes than do shorter period moving averages. Answer: Diff: 2 Page Ref: 687 Main Heading: Time Series Key words: moving average method

34) The __________ movements or variations in demand exhibit no pattern and occur on a random basis. Answer: Diff: 2 Page Ref: 683 Main Heading: Time Series Key words: forecasting components, irregular variation 35) The __________ is the sum of the absolute value of forecasting errors divided by the number of periods in which a forecast was made. Answer: Diff: 1 Page Ref: 699 Main Heading: Time Series Key words: forecast error, MAD 36) The __________ is the square of the average of the sum of the squared errors. Answer: Diff: 1 Page Ref: 699 Main Heading: Time Series Key words: forecast error, MSE 37) MAPD measures __________. Answer: Diff: 2 Page Ref: 700 Main Heading: Time Series Key words: forecast error, MAPD 38) __________ is a type of exponential smoothing that can also include trend. Answer Diff: 1 Page Ref: 693 Main Heading: Time Series Key words: adjusted exponential smoothing Given the following data on the number of pints of ice cream sold at a local ice cream store for a 6-period time frame:

39) Compute a 3-period moving average for period 4. Answer: Diff: 2 Page Ref: 686 Main Heading: Time Series Key words: moving averages, time series methods 40) Compute a 3-period moving average for period 6. Answer: Diff: 2 Page Ref: 686 Main Heading: Time Series Key words: moving averages, time series methods 41) Compute a 3-period moving average for period 7. Answer: Diff: 2 Page Ref: 686 Main Heading: Time Series Key words: moving averages, time series methods 42) Compute a 5-period moving average for period 6. Answer: Diff: 3 Page Ref: 686 Main Heading: Time Series Key words: moving averages, time series methods 43) Compute a 5-period moving average for period 7. Answer: Diff: 3 Page Ref: 686 Main Heading: Time Series Key words: moving averages, time series methods 44) Daily highs in Sacramento for the past week (from least to most recent) were: 95, 102, 101, 96, 95, 90 and 92. Develop a forecast for today using a 2 day moving average. Answer: Diff: 1 Page Ref: 686 Main Heading: Time Series Key words: moving average method

45) Daily highs in Sacramento for the past week (from least to most recent) were: 95, 102, 101, 96, 95, 90 and 92. Develop a forecast for today using a 3 day moving average. Answer: Diff: 1 Page Ref: 686 Main Heading: Time Series Key words: moving average method, forecast error 46) Daily highs in Sacramento for the past week (from least to most recent) were: 95, 102, 101, 96, 95, 90 and 92. Develop a forecast for today using a weighted moving average, with a weights of .6, .3 and .1, where the highest weights are applied to the most recent data. Answer: Diff: 2 Page Ref: 688 Main Heading: Time Series Key words: weighted moving average Given the following data on hotel check-ins for a 6-month period: July: 70 rooms August: 105 rooms September: 90 rooms October: 120 rooms November: 110 rooms December: 115 rooms 47) What is the 3-month moving average forecast for January? Answer: Diff: 2 Page Ref: 686 Main Heading: Time Series Key words: moving averages, time series methods

48) With alpha = 0.2, what is the simple exponential smoothing forecast for October? Assume the forecast for July was 12 rooms. Answer October forecast is 12.22 Diff: 3 Page Ref: 688 Main Heading: Time Series Key words: simple exponential smoothing, exponential smoothing 49) Using a 3-month moving average, how many check-ins can be forecasted for January? Answer: Diff: 3 Page Ref: 686 Main Heading: Time Series Key words: moving averages 50) Using the exponential smoothing factor 0.3, how many check-ins can be forecasted for January? Assume the forecast for December was 22 rooms. Answer: Diff: 3 Page Ref: 688 Main Heading: Time Series Key words: exponential smoothing 51) The following data summarizes the historical demand for a product. Month | Actual Demand | March | 20 | April | 25 | May | 40 | June | 35 | July | 30 | August | 45 | Use exponential smoothing with α = .2 and the smoothed forecast for July is 32 and determine August and September's smoothed forecasts. Answer: Diff: 2 Page Ref: 688 Main Heading: Time Series Key words: simple exponential smoothing

52) If the forecast is 33 and the actual value is 44, then the error this period is Answer: Diff: 1 Page Ref: 701 Main Heading: Time Series Key words: forecast accuracy 53) If the forecast is 25 and the actual value is 25, then the error this period is Answer: Diff: 1 Page Ref: 701 Main Heading: Time Series Key words: forecast accuracy 54) The following sales data are available for 2003-2008 : Determine a 4-year moving average forecast for 2008 and 2009. Answer: Diff: 2 Page Ref: 686 Main Heading: Time Series Key words: moving average method 55) The following sales data are available for 2003-2008 : Year | Sales | Forecast | 2003 | 7 | 9 | 2004 | 12 | 10 | 2005 | 14 | 15 | 2006 | 20 | 22 | 2007 | 16 | 18 | 2008 | 25 | 21 | Calculate the average error. Answer Diff: 2 Page Ref: 701 Main Heading: Time Series Key words: moving average method 56) If the forecast is 14 and the actual value is 15, then the error this period is Answer: Diff: 1 Page Ref: 701 Main Heading: Time Series Key words: forecast accuracy 57) If the absolute errors were calculated for 5 periods and the sum of the absolute deviation is 60, what is the value of the MAD? Answer: Diff: 2 Page Ref: 699 Main Heading: Time Series Key words: mean absolute deviation 58) Assume that the forecasted demand for 2006 is 15, use the following data set and exponential smoothing with α = 0.4 and determine the forecasted demand for 2009. Answer: Diff: 2 Page Ref: 688 Main Heading: Time Series Key words: simple exponential smoothing 59) Given the following data, compute the MAD for the forecast. Year Demand Forecast 2001 | 16 | 18 | 2002 | 20 | 19 | 2003 | 18 | 24 | Answer: Diff: 2 Page Ref: 699 Main Heading: Time Series Key words: simple exponential smoothing, forecast error, forecast accuracy 60) The following sales data are available for 2003-2008.

Determine a 4-year weighted moving average forecast for 2009, where weights are W1 = .1, W2 = .2, W3 = .2 and W4 = .5. Answer: Diff: 2 Page Ref: 688 Main Heading: Time Series Key words: weighted moving average 61) Quarterly sales is given for the past 3 years, determine the seasonal factors for each quarter. | Winter | Spring | Summer | Fall | Year 1 | 4800 | 4500 | 4100 | 5500 | Year 2 | 570 | 3800 | 4500 | 6000 | Year 3 | 6000 | 4600 | 4900 | 6500 | Answer: Diff: 2 Page Ref: 697 Main Heading: Time Series Key words: seasonal factors Recent past demand for product ZXT is given in the following table. Month | Actual Demand | February | 20 | March | 22 | April | 33 | May | 35 | June | 31 | July | 48 | August | 41 | 62) Determine the forecasted demand for April and May based on adjusted exponential smoothing with α = .2, β = .3. Answer Diff: 3 Page Ref: 693 Main Heading: Time Series Key words: adjusted exponential smoothing method 63) The forecasted demand for May, June, July August and September are 25, 30, 33, 38, 40 respectively. Determine the MSE and MAD. Answer: Diff: 2 Page Ref: 699 Main Heading: Time Series Key words: forecast accuracy, forecast errors, MSE and MAD 64) Forecasted demand for May, June, July August and September are 25, 30, 33, 38, 40 respectively. Determine the MAPD Answer: Diff: 2 Page Ref: 700 Main Heading: Time Series Key words: forecast accuracy, forecast errors, MAPD

65) Base on a three month weighted moving average with weights w1 = .1, w2 = .4, and w3 = .5, determine the forecasted demand for August and September. What is the forecast error in August? Answer: Diff: 2 Page Ref: 688 Main Heading: Time Series Key words: moving avg method, weighted moving avg method, forecast error 66) Use simple exponential smoothing with alpha = .4 and determine the forecasted demand for August and September. Assume that the smoothed forecast for July is 38. Answer: Diff: 2 Page Ref: 689 Main Heading: Time Series Key words: simple exponential smoothing 67) Simple exponential smoothing is being used to forecast demand. The previous forecast of 66 turned out to be four units less than actual demand. If the next forecast is 66.6, what is the value of the smoothing constant, α ? Answer: Diff: 2 Page Ref: 689 Main Heading: Time Series Key words: exponential smoothing 68) Robert wants to know if there is a relation between money spent on gambling and winnings.

What is the coefficient of determination? Answer: Diff: 3 Page Ref: 710 Main Heading: Regression Models Key words: regression models, coefficient of determination Robert has the following accounts on money spent on gambling and winnings:

69) Develop a regression equation that relates the money Robert spends and the money he wins. Answer: Diff: 3 Page Ref: 706 Main Heading: Regression Models Key words: linear regression models, regression analysis 70) Determine the correlation coefficient and the coefficient of determination. Answer: Diff: 3 Page Ref: 706-708 Main Heading: Regression Models Key words: linear regression models, regression analysis Sally has been running the following number of adds in the local newspaper to help attract customers into her store. She has also been keeping track of customers who have come into the store as a result of the ads, as well as the amount of money they spend. This is the data from the last 4 weeks:

71) Determine the equation that relates ads and increased sales. Answer: Diff: 3 Page Ref: 706 Main Heading: Regression Models Key words: regression analysis, linear regression models

72) If Sally runs 15 ads, how much will sales increase? Answer: Diff: 3 Page Ref: 706 Main Heading: Regression Models Key words: regression analysis, linear regression models 73) If Sally runs 10 ads, how much will sales increase? Answer Diff: 3 Page Ref: 706 Main Heading: Regression Models Key words: regression analysis, linear regression models Consider the following annual sales data for 2001-2008. Year | Sales | 2001 | 2 | 2002 | 4 | 2003 | 10 | 2004 | 8 | 2005 | 14 | 2006 | 18 | 2007 | 17 | 2008 | 20 | 74) Use the linear regression method and determine the estimated sales equation. Answer: Diff: 2 Page Ref: 706 Main Heading: Regression Models Key words: regression analysis, linear regression method 75) Calculate the coefficient of determination. Answer: Diff: 2 Page Ref: 710 Main Heading: Regression Models Key words: correlation coefficient and the coefficient of determination 76) Calculate the correlation coefficient . Answer: Diff: 2 Page Ref: 708 Main Heading: Regression Models Key words: correlation coefficient and the coefficient of determination The following data summarizes the historical demand for a product Month | Actual Demand | March | 20 | April | 25 | May | 40 | June | 35 | July | 30 | August | 45 | 77) Use a four period moving average to determine the forecasted demand for July, August and September. Answer: Diff: 2 Page Ref: 686 Main Heading: Regression Models Key words: moving avg method, forecast accuracy/error, MAPD, MAD, MSE 78) If the forecasted demand for June, July and August is 32, 38 and 42, respectively, what is MAD? Answer: Diff: 2 Page Ref: 699 Main Heading: Regression Models Key words: moving avg method, forecast accuracy/error, MAPD, MAD, MSE 79) If the forecasted demand for June, July and August is 32, 38 and 42, respectively, what is MSE? Answer: Diff: 2 Page Ref: 700 Main Heading: Regression Models Key words: moving avg method, forecast accuracy/error, MAPD, MAD, MSE 80) If the forecasted demand for June, July and August is 32, 38 and 42, respectively, what is MAPD? Answer: Diff: 2 Page Ref: 700 Main Heading: Regression Models Key words: moving avg method, forecast accuracy/error, MAPD, MAD, MSE

81) A manager uses the following equation to predict monthly receipts: Yt = 4,000 + 30t. What is the forecast for July of next year if t = 0 in April of this year? Answer Diff: 2 Page Ref: 694 Main Heading: Regression Models Key words: regression analysis 82) A local gym has discovered that their demand for personal trainers (measured in hours) is related not only to their own advertising expenditures in the prior month, but also to the demand for doughnuts and swim gear in the prior month at neighboring stores. The gym has developed the following regression model to forecast demand for personal trainers: Demand = 185 + (0.15*advertising expenditures) - (0.05*doughnuts) + (0.23*swim gear sales) What is the forecast for October, given advertising expenditures of 1000, doughnut sales of 2450, and swim gear sales of 782 in September? Answer: Diff: 2 Page Ref: 712 Main Heading: Regression Methods Key words: multiple linear regression analysis 83) Managers use __________ in forecasting. A) judgment B) opinion C) past experience D) all of the above Answer Diff: 1 Page Ref: 682 Main Heading: Forecasting Components Key words: forecasting, forecasting components, forecasting methods 84) The applicability of forecasting methods depends on A) the time frame of the forecast B) the existence of patterns in the forecast C) the number of variables to which the forecast is related D) all of the above Answer Diff: 2 Page Ref: 682 Main Heading: Forecasting Components Key words: forecasting, forecasting components, forecasting methods

85) __________ is a gradual, long-term, up or down movement of demand. A) Seasonal pattern B) Cycle C) Trend D) Prediction Answer Diff: 1 Page Ref: 682 Main Heading: Forecasting Components Key words: trend, forecasting components 86) A __________ is an up-and-down repetitive movement that repeats itself over a time span of more than 1 year. A) prediction B) seasonal pattern C) trend D) cyclical pattern Answer Diff: 1 Page Ref: 682 Main Heading: Forecasting Components Key words: seasonal pattern 87) __________ methods are the most common type of forecasting method for the long-term strategic planning process. A) Regression B) Qualitative C) Time series D) all of the above Answer Diff: 2 Page Ref: 684 Main Heading: Forecasting Components Key words: qualitative methods 88) __________ is a category of statistical techniques that uses historical data to predict future behavior. A) Qualitative methods B) Regression C) Time series D) Quantitative methods Answer Diff: 2 Page Ref: 683 Main Heading: Forecasting Components Key words: time series analysis

89) __________ use management judgment, expertise, and opinion to make forecasts. A) Qualitative methods B) Regression C) Time series D) Quantitative methods Answer Diff: 2 Page Ref: 684 Main Heading: Forecasting Components Key words: qualitative methods 90) The __________ is a procedure for developing a consensus forecast about what will occur in the future. A) Delphi method B) quantitative method C) regression equation D) time series forecasting method Answer Diff: 3 Page Ref: 685 Main Heading: Forecasting Components Key words: Delphi method 91) __________ has become increasingly crucial to compete in the modern international business environment. A) The Delphi method B) Technological forecasting C) Prediction D) all of the above Answer Diff: 2 Page Ref: 685 Main Heading: Forecasting Components Key words: technological forecasting

92) Consider the following graph of sales.

Which of the following characteristics is exhibited by the data? A) Trend only B) Trend plus seasonal C) Trend plus random D) Cyclical only E) None of the above Answer Diff: 2 Page Ref: 682 Main Heading: Forecasting Components Key words: forecasting components, trend, cyclical, seasonal 93) Consider the following graph of sales.

Which of the following characteristics is exhibited by the data? A) Trend only B) Trend plus seasonal C) Trend plus random D) Seasonal only E) None of the above Answer Diff: 2 Page Ref: 682 Main Heading: Forecasting Components Key words: forecasting components, trend, random, seasonal 94) Consider the following graph of sales.

Which of the following characteristics is exhibited by the data? A) Trend only B) Trend plus seasonal C) Trend plus irregular D) Seasonal E) None of the above Answer Diff: 2 Page Ref: 682 Main Heading: Forecasting Components Key words: forecasting components, trend, seasonal, irregular 95) __________ moving averages react more slowly to recent demand changes than do __________ moving averages. A) Longer-period, shorter-period B) Shorter-period, longer-period C) Longer-period, longer-period D) Shorter-period, shorter-period Answer Diff: 2 Page Ref: 687 Main Heading: Time Series Methods Key words: moving averages, time series analysis

96) __________ is good for stable demand with no pronounced behavioral patterns. A) Longer-period moving average B) Shorter-period moving average C) Moving average D) Weighted moving average Answer Diff: 2 Page Ref: 687 Main Heading: Time Series Methods Key words: moving averages, time series analysis 97) __________ methods assume that what has occurred in the past will continue to occur in the future. A) Time series B) Regression C) Quantitative D) Qualitative Answer Diff: 2 Page Ref: 686 Main Heading: Time Series Methods Key words: time series analysis 98) In exponential smoothing, the closer alpha is to __________, the greater the reaction to the most recent demand. A) -1 B) 0 C) 1 D) -1 or 1 Answer Diff: 2 Page Ref: 690 Main Heading: Time Series Methods Key words: exponential smoothing 99) In adjusted exponential smoothing, the closer beta is to __________, the stronger a trend is reflected. A) -1 / 1 B) -1 C) 0 D) 1 Answer Diff: 2 Page Ref: 693 Main Heading: Time Series Methods Key words: adjusted exponential smoothing

100) __________ is a linear regression model relating demand to time. A) Linear trend B) Linear regression C) Forecast demand D) Linear equation Answer Diff: 2 Page Ref: 694 Main Heading: Time Series Methods Key words: linear regression models, regression analysis 101) Which of the following possible values of alpha would cause exponential smoothing to respond the most slowly to sudden changes in forecast errors? A) .01 B) .10 C) .20 D) .50 E) .90 Answer Diff: 2 Page Ref: 690 Main Heading: Time Series Methods Key words: simple exponential smoothing 102) Given an actual demand of 59, a previous forecast of 64, and an alpha of .3, what would the forecast for the next period be using simple exponential smoothing? A) 36.9 B) 57.5 C) 60.5 D) 62.5 E) 65.5 Answer Diff: 2 Page Ref: 689 Main Heading: Time Series Methods Key words: simple exponential smoothing 103) __________ is the difference between the forecast and actual demand. A) Forecast mistake B) Forecast error C) MAD D) Forecast accuracy Answer Diff: 2 Page Ref: 699 Main Heading: Forecast Accuracy Key words: forecast error, forecast accuracy

104) __________ is absolute error as a percentage of demand. A) Cumulative error B) MAD C) MAPD D) Average error Answer Diff: 3 Page Ref: 700 Main Heading: Forecast Accuracy Key words: MAPD, forecast accuracy 105) __________ indicates a forecast is biased low. A) Large : B) Large - C) Large + D) Large x Answer Diff: 2 Page Ref: 701 Main Heading: Forecast Accuracy Key words: cumulative error, average error 106) __________ indicates a forecast is biased high. A) Large + B) Large - C) Large : D) Large x Answer Diff: 2 Page Ref: 701 Main Heading: Forecast Accuracy Key words: cumulative error, average error 107) __________ is a measure of the strength of the relationship between independent and dependent variables. A) Correlation B) Linear regression C) Coefficient of determination D) Regression Answer Diff: 2 Page Ref: 708 Main Heading: Regression Methods Key words: correlation, regression methods, linear regression model

108) __________ is the percentage of the variation in the dependent variable that results from the independent variable. A) Regression B) Coefficient of determination C) Correlation D) Linear regression Answer Diff: 2 Page Ref: 710 Main Heading: Regression Methods Key words: coefficient of determination, linear reg model, reg methods 109) Coefficient of determination is the percentage of the variation in the __________ variable that results from the __________ variable. A) dependent, dependent B) independent, dependent C) dependent, independent D) independent, independent Answer Diff: 3 Page Ref: 710 Main Heading: Regression Methods Key words: coefficient of determination, linear reg model, reg methods 110) Consider the following demand and forecast. Period | Demand | Forecast | 1 | 7 | 10 | 2 | 12 | 15 | 3 | 18 | 20 | 4 | 22 | | If MAD = 2, what is the forecast for period 4? A) 19 B) 20 C) 21 D) 22 E) none of the above Answer Diff: 2 Page Ref: 699 Main Heading: Forecast Accuracy Key words: forecast error, MAD

Given the following data on the number of pints of ice cream sold at a local ice cream store for a 6-period time frame:

111) Use a 2-period moving average to forecast demand for period 7. A) 227.5 B) 275 C) 280 D) 290 E) none of the above Answer Diff: 2 Page Ref: 686 Main Heading: Time Series Methods Key words: moving average method 112) Use a 3-period moving average to forecast demand for period 7. A) 283.33 B) 280 C) 290 D) 310 E) none of the above Answer Diff: 2 Page Ref: 686 Main Heading: Time Series Methods Key words: moving average method 113) If the forecast for period 5 is equal to 275, use exponential smoothing to compute a forecast for period 7 if α = .40. A) 273 B) 277 C) 267.8 D) 286.2 E) none of the above Answer Diff: 2 Page Ref: 689 Main Heading: Time Series Methods Key words: exponential smoothing

The following data represents quarterly sales of lawnmowers. Year | Quarter 1 | Quarter 2 | Quarter 3 | Quarter 4 | 1 | 150 | 140 | 190 | 165 | 2 | 160 | 148 | 210 | 175 | 114) What is the seasonal index for the third quarter? (Round to the nearest hundredth.) A) .20 B) .22 C) .26 D) .30 E) none of the above Answer Diff: 2 Page Ref: 697-698 Main Heading: Forecasting Components Key words: seasonal factors 115) What is the seasonal index for the fourth quarter? (Round to the nearest hundredth.) A) .20 B) .23 C) .25 D) .30 E) none of the above Answer Diff: 2 Page Ref: 697-698 Main Heading: Forecasting Components Key words: seasonal factors 116) The manager of "Skis 4 U" is preparing a forecast for February of 2011. Demand exhibits both trend and seasonality. The trend equation for monthly demand is y = 4375 + 80t, where t = 1 for January 2009. The seasonal index for February is 1.25. The forecast for February is A) 4575 B) 4583 C) 5719 D) 5729 E) none of the above Answer Diff: 2 Page Ref: 697-698 Main Heading: Forecasting Components Key words: seasonal factors

117) Given forecast errors of 6, 4, 0 and -2, what is the mean absolute deviation? A) 2 B) 3 C) 4 D) 2.67 E) none of the above Answer Diff: 2 Page Ref: 699 Main Heading: Forecast Accuracy Key words: forecast error, MAD 118) Given forecast errors of 6, 4, 0 and -2, what is the mean squared error? A) 14 B) 18.67 C) 16 D) 12 E) none of the above Answer Diff: 2 Page Ref: 698 Main Heading: Forecast Accuracy Key words: forecast error, MSE

Similar Documents

Free Essay

Mat222 Week 1 Assignment.

...Solving Proportions MAT222 Week 1 Assignment September 22, 2014 Solving Proportions Solving for a proportion can be used within numerous real-world problems, such as finding the population of an area. Conservationists are able to predict the population of bear’s in their area by comparing information collected from two experiments. In this problem, 50 bears in Keweenaw Peninsula were tagged and released so conservationists could estimate the bear population. One year later, the conservationist took random samples of 100 bears from the same area, proportions are able to be used in order to determine Keweenaw Peninsula’s bear population. “To estimate the size of the bear population on the Keweenaw Peninsula, conservationists captured, tagged, and released 50 bears. One year later, a random sample of 100 bears included only 2 tagged bears. What is the conservationist’s estimate of the size of the bear population (Dugolpolski, 2012)?” In order to figure the estimated population, some variables need to first be defined and explain the rules for solving proportions. The ratio of originally tagged bears to the entire population is (50/x). The ratio of recaptured tagged bears to the sample size is (2/100). 50x=2100 is how the proportion is set up and is now ready to be solved. Cross multiplication is necessary for this problem. The extremes are (100) and (50). The means are (x) and (2). 100(50)=2x New equation, and now solve for (x). 50002=2x2 Divide both...

Words: 608 - Pages: 3

Free Essay

Mat222 Week 1 Assignment

...originally tagged bears to the whole population is equal to the ratio of recaptured tagged bears to the size of the sample. The ratio of originally tagged bears to the whole population is 50X The ration of recaptured tagged bears to the sample size is 2100 50X=2100 This is the proportion set up and ready to solve. I will cross multiply setting the extremes equal to the means. 10050=2x 100and 50 are the extremes, while X and 2 are the means. 50002=2x2 Divide both sides by 2 X = 2500 The bear population on the Keweenaw Peninsula is around 2500 bears. The second problem for assignment one week one I am asked to solve the below equation for y. The first thing I notice is that a single fraction (ratio) on both sides of the equal sign so basically it is a proportion which can be solved by cross multiplying the extremes and the means. y-1x+3=-34 Is the equation I am asked to solve. 3y-1=-3x-4 The result of the cross multiplying. 3y-3=-3x+12 Distribute 3 on the left side and -3 on the right. 3y-3+3=-3x+12+3 Subtract 3 from both sides. 3y=-3x+15 3y3=-3x3+153 Divide both sides by 3 y=-x+5 This is a linear equation in the form of y=mx+b. This equation is in its simplest form. I like how we can take just a couple of numbers from a word equation and put it in an order that will help us solve many estimates we may come...

Words: 340 - Pages: 2

Premium Essay

Student

...COMP101 – Problem Solving with Computing Homework - WEEK 2 [30 points] This is a review of some of the material from Chapter 2 and lectures from class. No credit for answers that are copies or near verbatim transcripts – please use your own words1 and document sources where appropriate. 1 This will apply to all assignments in this class. Answer the following questions: Chapter 2 1. Short Answers [1 point each, 2 points total] 1. What does a professional programmer usually do first to gain an understanding of a problem? The first thing that a professional programmer usually do first to gain an understanding of a program is to closely relate customer (Interview ) to inquire or gather information about the problem. 2. What two things must you normally specify in a variable declaration? The two things normally specified in a variable declaration are the variable type and identifier. 2. Algorithms / Pseudocode [1 point each, 5 points total] 1. Design an algorithm that prompts the user to enter his or her height and stores the user’s input in a variable named height. Declare height Display “Enter Your Height” Input Height Display “Height” 2. Write assignment statements that perform the following operations with the variables a and b. - Adds 2 to a and stores the result in b. - Subtracts 8 from b and stores the result in a Set b=2+a Set a=b-8 3. Write a pseudocode statement that declares the variable cost so it can hold real numbers. Floating...

Words: 1823 - Pages: 8

Free Essay

Mobile Service Provider

...RE3R02B32 PART- A 1. Ans :- (a) unary and ternary operator Unary operator:- It pecedes an operand . The operand (the value on which the operator operates ) of the unary operator must have arithmetic or pointer type and the result is the value of the argument. Example:- If a=5 then +a means 5 If a=0 then +a means 0. If a=-4 then +a means -4. Ternary operator:- It precedes an operand. The operand of the unary operator must have arithmetic type and the result is the negation of the operand’s value. Example:- If a=5 then –a means -5 If a=0 then –a means 0 If a=-4 then –a means 4. (b) Assignment and equalto operator Assignment operator:- Equal to operator: An assignment operator assigns value In this we put the To a variable. value as it is. Example – Example- a*=5 means a=5*5. Int a; a=5 means a is initialized with 5 if(a==5) { return true; } return false; (c) Expression and statement Expression:- An expression is any valid combination of operators , constants , and variables. Example:- for(i=0;i=10&&qual==1) sal=15000; else if((g==’m’&&yos>=10&&qual==0)||(g==’m’&&yos=10&&qual=0) ...

Words: 399 - Pages: 2

Premium Essay

Week 2 Assigment

...Week 2 Assignment: Understanding Effective Money Management Assessment A, Part 1: Creating a Personal Financial Statement - Assets | 1 point | Car: Bluebook value $1250.00Cash: $378.00Savings Accounts: $826.00 | Assessment A, Part 2: Creating a Personal Financial Statement - Debts | 1 point | Rent: $750.00Electric/ Gas bill: $131.75Cable/ internet/ Phone bill: $80.42Credit Card: $31.00Cell phone bill: $72.37 | Assessment A, Part 3: Identify Money Management Tool | 1 point | Explain to Monica how the money management tools were identified. | Students should explain how they evaluated various cash management products and services. | Assessment A, Part 4: Creating a Personal Financial Statement – Steps | 1 point | Drag the steps listed on the right into their correct sequences on the left. When done click the Send button | Step 1: I got all my financial stuff together – bills, loans, bank statements, etc. | Step 2: I balance my checkbook. | Step 3: I decided what were my assets and what were my debts. | Step 4: I enter my assets in the program. | Step 5: I enter my debts in the program. | Step 6: The program gave me a Net worth figure at the end. | Assessment B: Creating a Monthly Cash Flow Statement ...

Words: 255 - Pages: 2

Free Essay

Prg/211 Calorie Count Tool

...Team B Calorie Count Tool PRG/211 May 5, 2014 Team B Calorie Count Tool PROBLEM STATEMENT Team B was asked to develop a program which would calculate the user’s daily intake of calories and measure those calories against the overall calories expended. The core purpose of this program will do two primary functions. First, it will record the user intake of calories as acquired through meals throughout the day. Second, the user will record caloric output associated with physical activity. This information will be calculated together to determine the caloric surplus or deficit for the user. In order for the program to execute accurately, and provide customized results, the user will be required to input personal data to include gender, age, weight, and height. This additional information is essential to determine the user’s default caloric burn rate, otherwise known as the basal metabolic rate (BMR). The BMR and the calories burned as a result of physical activity will be calculated against the intake of calories to determine the overall success for the user. As the program is executed it must: * Record user name, age, height, weight to enable more accurate calculations * Record the users specific caloric values entered for each meal * Record the user activity and caloric burn values for that activity * Calculate the basal metabolic rate (BMR) for the individual * Subtotal the total caloric values for the day * Combine the physical activity and...

Words: 1524 - Pages: 7

Free Essay

Nt1210 Unit 7 Assignment 1

...Unit 7 Assignment 1 Multiple Choice 1.) A 11.) C 2.) A, B 12.) A 3.) B, D 13.) A, D 4.) A 14.) C 5.) A 15.) B, C 6.) B, D 16.) B, D 7.) A 17.) C 8.) C 18.) B, D 9.) C 19.) A, C 10.) D 20.) B, C Key Terms Switched circuit - A circuit established through one or more intermediate switching devices, such as circuit switches or packet switches. Dedicated circuit - it is used in reference to a phone or data line, or to an electrical circuit. Circuit switching - a methodology of implementing a telecommunications link in which two network nodes establish a dedicated communications channel (circuit) through the network before the nodes may communicate. Packet switching - a digital networking communications method that groups all transmitted data into suitably sized blocks that are transmitted through a medium that may be shared by multiple simultaneous communication sessions. Leased line - connects two locations for private voice and/or data telecommunication service. Time-division multiplexing -a method of transmitting and receiving independent signals over a common signal path by means of synchronized switches at each end of the transmission line so that each signal appears on the line only a fraction of time in an alternating pattern. T-carrier system – one of several digital transmission systems developed by Bell Labs, sometimes called T-CXR. DS0 – a standard digital transmission rate for digital telecommunications, stands for Digital Signal Zero. DS1 –...

Words: 336 - Pages: 2

Premium Essay

Andy Owes Bill a Debt.

...Law Written Assignment 3 Case Study 1 Parks, a 7-foot, 265-pound center for the San Diego Slick, objected when his contract was assigned from the ABC Corporation to the XYZ Corporation, the team’s new owner. The change of owners did not cause a change in the composition of the team although a new coach was hired. Parks’s compensation and his responsibilities remained the same. Was this contract assignable? Facts of the Case: 1) Parks contract was assigned from the ABC Corporation to XYZ Corporation. 2) Parks compensation and his responsibilities remained the same. Issues: 1) The reason why we are in court today is to identify if Park’s contract was assignable. Rules of the Law: 1) Personal Service Contract – The parties agree that a personal service contract may be assigned. This allows the trade of an athlete from one team to another team. 2) Notice of Assignment – Assignee is under a duty to notify the obligor that the assignment has been made and performance must be rendered to the assignee. 3) Anti-Assignment Clause – Prohibits the assignment of rights under the contract. 4) Approval Clause – requires that the obligor approves any assignment of contract. Analysis & Conclusion: Since we do not have all the facts we can assume the following: 1) Parks contract did include the Personal service contract. 2) Notice of assignment was made by XYZ Corporation. 3) Parks contract did NOT include Anti-Assignment Clause. ...

Words: 495 - Pages: 2

Free Essay

Engeenering

...SCHOOL OF ENGINEERING YEAR 3 MECHATRONICS ASSIGNMENT LAB REPORT Reading an Analogue Voltage from a Potentiometer to turn a Motor on and off with reading of 40 Assignment 2 Owais Jahanzeb BENG Mechanical Engineering with buissness Lecturer: Dr. Tom Shenton Aim & Objectives The aim of this lab is to develop a functioning program for the PICDEM board to read an analogue signal from a potentiometer and turning a motor on or off if the signal exceeds a certain limit. The program should depict the function that it should turn the motor ON and OFF if the potentiometer reading is less than or equal to 40. The practical uses of such program can be seen in automotive , injection moulding machines, wood processing machines, modern temperature controlled plants, speed control torque operations. Developing Program 1 Figure 1. The schematic circuit & PICDEM board configuration for Program Figure 1. The schematic circuit & PICDEM board configuration for Program The objective of program is to read the correspondent voltage analogous to the potentiometer position and switch the motor on if the reading is over 40 and switch it off if the reading is less than or equal to 40, the value can be adjusted by twisting the screw clockwise and anticlockwise. The program works by implementing the following code. PIC program for Test of potentiometer with value less equal to 40 with comments: include <p16f917.inc> extern DisplayDigit1, DisplayDigit2...

Words: 427 - Pages: 2

Free Essay

Study Habits

...STUDY HABITS OF SECOND YEAR BS-AVTECH STUDENTS OF PATTS COLLEGE OF AERONAUTICS S.Y 2013-2014 An Undergraduate Research Presented to The Languages Department of PATTS College of Aeronautics In Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the course ENGL 211 – Technical Report Writing By Guevarra, Giorgio Martin C Guevarra, Lorenzo Miguel Jang, Jose, Yosalina, Leo Xander March 2014 ACKNOWLEDGEMENT The researcher would like to express our thanks to the lord. Our God for his guidance towards everything we do In life, including this study that we had made, and for being an inspiration for us all to do our best in life. We give our thanks to Ms. Karen M. Millano, our adviser for ENGL 211, for carefully and patiently guiding us so that we may finish the thesis research, and for supporting us and believing in us, that we can accomplish our task finishing the thesis. To the respondents of this study, we express our gratitude because without them, this thesis research would not have been completed, we thank them for allowing us to conduct a survey during their spare time, and their patience and integrity in answering the survey. To our parents, for their support and everlasting patience and understanding for us. And lastly to our classmates, since they have been with us since the beginning of the semester and they had been our companions in everything we do for the subject ENGL 211. ABSTRACT STUDY HABITS OF...

Words: 413 - Pages: 2

Premium Essay

Sfds

...ASSIGNMENT - 3 Answers 1 Answer 2 Answer 3 4. For what types of workloads does SJF deliver the same turnaround times as FIFO? ANSWER: - In the above case if the jobs are same in size or the jobs periodically applied (i.e. first shortest job then later second shortest job and continues) then the turnaround time of SJF is same as FIFO. 5. For what types of workloads and quantum lengths does SJF deliver the same response times as RR? ANSWER: - The response time delivered by SJF is equal to the response time of RR but this happens only when all the jobs arrived are at the point when the planning quantum of RR is bigger than the bigger occupation to be administrations in order of increasing size. 6. What happens to response time with SJF as job lengths increase? Can you use the simulator to demonstrate the trend? ANSWER: - If you suppose the length of the job increases then average response time varies (increases).If every job is sorted in increasing job order than the last job response time will be equal to the sum of current job and previous (n-1) jobs. In this way if the size of the job increases the response time will also increases for all larger jobs. 7. What happens to response time with RR as quantum lengths increase? Can you write an equation that gives the worst-case response time, given N jobs? ANSWER: - In the case of RR, the response time increases as the quantum lengths increases. This happens because the waiting time of a process for its turn to...

Words: 286 - Pages: 2

Free Essay

Management Accounting

...Management Accounting Individual Assignment 1. Variable manufacturing cost per unit = (323,000,000-160,000,000-24,000,000-100,000,000) 850,000 = $45.88 per unit Fixed manufacturing cost per unit = $100,000,000 850,000units = $117.65 per unit Total manufacturing cost per unit= 45.88+117.65 = $163.53per unit 2. Fixed overhead rate= $100,000,000 800,000units =$125 per unit Production volume variance= (850,000 X 125)-(800,000 X 125) =$106,250,000-$100,000,000 = $6,250,000 Favourable 3. Absorption costing. | $ | $ | SalesLess: Cost of goods soldOpening inventoryProduction(850,000 X (255+125))(-)Ending inventory(30,000 X 405)Gross MarginAdjustments for production variance(850,000-800,000)x125Operating Income | 0323,000,000(11,400,000) | 450,000,000(311,600,000) | | | | | | 138,400,0006,250,000F | | | 144,650,000 | Income Statement for the year ended 31December 2012 4. Variable Costing Income Statement for the year ended 31 December 2012 | $ | $ | SalesOpening inventoryProduction(850,000 X 255)(-)Ending inventoryContribution MarginFixed factory overheadOperating income | 0216,750,000(7650,000) | 450,000,000(209,100,000) | | | 240,900,000(100,000,000) | | | 140,900, 000 | 5. Based on the calculations of absorption costing and variable costing for the year 2012,it would be better to calculate and measure using the absorption costing...

Words: 288 - Pages: 2

Free Essay

Misconceptions of Algebra

...Diagnostic Algebra Assessment Definitions Categories Equality Symbol Misconception Graphing Misconception Definition Concept of a Variable Misconception Equality Symbol Misconception As algebra teachers, we all know how frustrating it can be to teach a particular concept and to have a percentage of our students not get it. We try different approaches and activities but to no avail. These students just do not seem to grasp the concept. Often, we blame the students for not trying hard enough. Worse yet, others blame us for not teaching students well enough. Students often learn the equality symbol misconception when they begin learning mathematics. Rather than understanding that the equal sign indicates equivalence between the expressions on the left side and the right side of an equation, students interpret the equal sign as meaning “do something” or the sign before the answer. This problem is exacerbated by many adults solving problems in the following way: 5 × 4 + 3 = ? 5 × 4 = 20 + 3 = 23 Students may also have difficulty understanding statements like 7 = 3 + 4 or 5 = 5, since these do not involve a problem on the left and an answer on the right. Falkner presented the following problem to 6th grade classes: 8 + 4 = [] + 5 All 145 students gave the answer of 12 or 17. It can be assumed that students got 12 since 8 + 4 = 12. The 17 may be from those who continued the problem: 12 + 5 = 17. Students with this misconception may also have difficulty with the idea that adding...

Words: 797 - Pages: 4

Free Essay

Book Report

...Selection statements Selection is used to select which statements are to be performed next based on a condition being true or false. Relational expressions In the solution of many problems, different actions must be taken depending on the value of the data. The if statement in C I used to implement such s decision structure in its simplest form – that of selecting a statement to be executed only if a condition is satisfied. Syntax: if(condtion) statement executed if condition is true When an executing program encounters the if statement, the condition is evaluated to determine its numerical value, which is then interpreted as either true or false. If the condition evaluates to any non-0 value (positive or negative), the condition is considered as a “true” condition and the statement following the if is executed; otherwise this statement is not executed. Relational Operators In C Relational operator | Meaning | Example | < | Less than | age < 30 | > | Greater than | height > 6.2 | <= | Less than or equal to | taxable <= 200000 | >= | Greater than or equal to | temp >= 98.6 | == | Equal to | grade == 100 | != | Not equal to | number !=250 | In creating relational expressions, the relational operators must be typed exactly as given in the above table. Thus, although the following relational expressions are all valid: age > 40 length <= 50 temp >= 98.6 3 < 4 flag == done day != 5 The following are invalid: length =< 50 ...

Words: 1617 - Pages: 7

Free Essay

Assignment of Income Doctrine

...ACC 616 Prof. Robert Simpson Student name: On the back Assignment 1: Explain Assignment of Income Doctrine The "assignment of income" doctrine states that income is taxed to the one who actually earns it. That means a taxpayer cannot avoid tax liability by assigning his income to another party or entity. Therefore, to be able to shift income to someone else, that one must actually earn the income. This doctrine aims to against the tax evasion when the taxpayer tries to deflect income to another party. First, starting from the term “earning”, earnings can occur either through the direct efforts of the taxpayer or the taxpayer’s ownership of an asset that generates income. Based on that understanding about earning, there are 2 ways to shifting income from one to another: the transferee must really work to earn that income or share the ownership of an asset that creates income. For example, if you are an owner of a business and you want to shift one part of your income to your family member such as your son, you need to hire your son to work for your company and give him the pay rate that is appropriate with his job. And the other way is to share your investment income with him, same meaning with sharing your ownership with him. The assignment of income applies the “tree and fruit” metaphor, in which the fruits cannot be attributed to a different tree from that on which they grew. If you want to avoid the tax liability on the fruit from the tree, you must prove that the...

Words: 421 - Pages: 2