...The Law of Small Numbers 11. Anchors 12. The Science of Availability 13. Availability, Emotion, and Risk 14. Tom W’s Specialty 15. Linda: Less is More 16. Causes Trump Statistics 17. Regression to the Mean 18. Taming Intuitive Predictions Part III. Overconfidence 19. The Illusion of Understanding 20. The Illusion of Validity 21. Intuitions Vs. Formulas 22. Expert Intuition: When Can We Trust It? 23. The Outside View 24. The Engine of Capitalism Part IV. Choices 25. Bernoulli’s Errors 26. Prospect Theory 27. The Endowment Effect 28. Bad Events 29. The Fourfold Pattern 30. Rare Events 31. Risk Policies 32. Keeping Score 33. Reversals 34. Frames and Reality Part V. Two Selves 35. Two Selves 36. Life as a Story 37. Experienced Well-Being 38. Thinking About Life Conclusions Appendix Uncertainty A: Judgment Under Appendix B: Choices, Values, and Frames Acknowledgments Notes Index Introduction Every author, I suppose, has in mind a setting in which readers of his or her work could benefit from having read it. Mine is the proverbial office watercooler, where opinions are shared and gossip is exchanged. I hope to enrich the vocabulary that people use when they talk about the judgments and choices of others, the company’s new policies, or a colleague’s investment decisions. Why be concerned with gossip? Because it is much easier, as well as far more enjoyable, to identify and label the mistakes of others than to recognize our own. Questioning what we believe...
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...THE POWER OF HABIT Duhi_9781400069286_2p_all_r1.j.indd i 10/17/11 12:01 PM Duhi_9781400069286_2p_all_r1.j.indd ii 10/17/11 12:01 PM HABIT W h y We D o W h a t We D o and How to Change It THE POWER OF CHARLES DUHIGG Random House e N e w Yo r k Duhi_9781400069286_2p_all_r1.j.indd iii 10/17/11 12:01 PM This is a work of nonfiction. Nonetheless, some names and personal characteristics of individuals or events have been changed in order to disguise identities. Any resulting resemblance to persons living or dead is entirely coincidental and unintentional. Copyright © 2012 by Charles Duhigg All rights reserved. Published in the United States by Random House, an imprint of The Random House Publishing Group, a division of Random House, Inc., New York. RANDOM HOUSE and colophon are registered trademarks of Random House, Inc. ISBN 978-1-4000-6928-6 eBook ISBN 978-0-679-60385-6 Printed in the United States of America on acid-free paper Illustrations by Anton Ioukhnovets www.atrandom.com 2 4 6 8 9 7 5 3 1 First Edition Book design by Liz Cosgrove Duhi_9781400069286_2p_all_r1.j.indd iv 10/17/11 12:01 PM To Oliver, John Harry, John and Doris, and, everlastingly, to Liz Duhi_9781400069286_2p_all_r1.j.indd v 10/17/11 12:01 PM Duhi_9781400069286_2p_all_r1.j.indd vi 10/17/11 12:01 PM CONTENTS PROLOGUE The Habit Cure GGG xi PA R T O N E The Habits of Individuals 1. THE HABIT LOOP How Habits Work 3 31 60 2. THE...
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