...How We Know What Isn't So The Fallibility of Human Reason in Everyday Life Thomas Gilovich THE FREE PRESS A Division of Macmillan, Inc. NEW YORK To Karen and liana Contents Acknowledgments 1. Introduction vn 1 PART ONE Cognitive Determinants of Questionable Beliefs 2. Something Out of Nothing: The Misperception and Misinterpretation of Random Data 3. Too Much from Too Little: The Misinterpretation of Incomplete and Unrepresentative Data 4. Seeing What We Expect to See: The Biased Evaluation of Ambiguous and Inconsistent Data 9 29 49 PART TWO Motivational and Social Determinants of Questionable Beliefs 5. Seeing What We Want to See: Motivational Determinants of Belief 6. Believing What We are Told: The Biasing Effects of Secondhand Information 7. The Imagined Agreement of Others: Exaggerated Impressions of Social Support 75 88 112 Contents PART THREE Examples of Questionable and Erroneous Beliefs 8. Belief in Ineffective "Alternative" Health Practices 9. Belief in the Effectiveness of Questionable Interpersonal Strategies 10. Belief in ESP 125 146 Acknowledgments 156 PART FOUR Where Do We Go from Here? 11. Challenging Dubious Beliefs: The Role of Social Science Notes Index 185 195 214 Four people made unusually significant contributions to this work and deserve special thanks. Lee Ross commented on drafts of many of the chapters and provided a number of his uniquely...
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...FAMILY OF SECRETS The Bush Dynasty, America’s Invisible Government, and the Hidden History of the Last Fifty Years RUSS BAKER Contents Foreword by James Moore 1. How Did Bush Happen? 2. Poppy’s Secret 3. Viva Zapata 4. Where Was Poppy? 5. Oswald’s Friend 6. The Hit 7. After Camelot 8. Wings for W. 9. The Nixonian Bushes 10. Downing Nixon, Part I: The Setup 11. Downing Nixon, Part II: The Execution 12. In from the Cold 13. Poppy’s Proxy and the Saudis 14. Poppy’s Web 15. The Handoff 16. The Quacking Duck 17. Playing Hardball 18. Meet the Help 19. The Conversion 20. The Skeleton in W.’s Closet 21. Shock and . . . Oil? 22. Deflection for Reelection 23. Domestic Disturbance 24. Conclusion Afterword Author’s Note Acknowledgments Notes Foreword When a governor or any state official seeks elective national office, his (or her) reputation and what the country knows about the candidate’s background is initially determined by the work of local and regional media. Generally, those journalists do a competent job of reporting on the prospect’s record. In the case of Governor George W. Bush, Texas reporters had written numerous stories about his failed businesses in the oil patch, the dubious land grab and questionable funding behind a new stadium for Bush’s baseball team, the Texas Rangers, and his various political contradictions and hypocrisies while serving in Austin. I was one of those Texas journalists. I spent about a decade...
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