...could only exert pressure on oneself, thus threatening one’s emotional well-being. Sometimes it’s okay to acknowledge and even yield to our desires and temptations provided no harm could be done to others and society in which we are living in. Through the course of Lina’s revelation of her dark side, the relationship between Lina and her mother undergoes a sea change. She is initially obedient and respectful to her mother, seeing her as a role model in the pursuit of the top of her career. But as her dark side begins to reveal, she gradually comes to the realization of her mother’s creepy possessiveness and begins to defy his mother. Their conflict is at its greatest when Lina discovers her mom’s attempt to stop her from playing the black swan and that’s when she verbally attacks even physically injures her mom. Personally, I think her mother’s over-protectiveness stems from the early setbacks in her career. She...
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...The focus of this critique is on the film Black Swan, directed by Darren Aronofsky and starring Natalie Portman, Mila Kunis, and Vincent Cassel. A movie about a young woman’s consuming desire for perfection as a ballerina in the role of a lifetime. Throughout this film the mise-en-scene was raw and grainy with diverse camera angles that gave an out of control feel that added to the instability within the scenes. As the film progresses the viewer becomes increasingly unsure of the reality that the Nina character is experiencing. The tight quarters of the sets, apart from the practice room, emphasized and helped to showcase the pressure at the studio and the controlling atmosphere at home. The editing in this film was linear and showed the gradual and increasing mental instability of Nina. At times it was difficult to know where in her mental decline she was at and what she was experiencing versus what was only in her mind. Had the film been edited in a nonlinear fashion it would have added a tremendous amount of confusion for the viewer and destroyed the continuity of her experiences and gradual mental deterioration. Sound is effectively used in scenes depicting the reality of particular events. The harsh sounds of the cutting and clipping of Nina’s fingernails sounded like the snapping of small bones. The sound of grinding the bottoms of the ballet slippers in the resin box, the scraping, scratching sound of the knife slicing the bottoms of the shoes were...
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...Black Swann events are rare events, highly impactful and unpredictable but can be prepared for. A true Black Swan event have three features, first it must surprise the viewer, second must have an extreme impact and lastly the nature of the event is predictable after it has already happened. Black Swan events implicate a major loss or damage to an asset, they progress rapidly and for a period of time, the astonishing fact is that after the event has occurred then the antecedent evidence is noted to have been in existence all along (Taleb, 2007). Nicholas Taleb, a Lebanise American is a scholar and statistician. According to him a black swan event is an event that will cause a great impact, is unpredictable and inspires the viewer to have willed to take precautions if only he had seen the event coming. He condemned the methods of risk management applied by industries, saying that they can easily predict an event but due to ignorance occurrence of black swan events presides. Yes, it is possible for managers to proactively forecast Black Swan events, by taking advantage of positive events and withstanding challenging events is a key way to starting its management, it also involves realization of their knowledge culmination and appreciating their ignorance. Below is a discussion on how managers can plan for Black swan event; First pointing most probable effects of business disruptions, developing a strategic plan and actions to prevent or reduce risk occurrence (Taleb, 2007). This...
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...THE B L A C K SWAN The HIGHLY I mpact IM of the PROBABLE Nassim Nicholas Taleb U.S.A. $26.95 Canada $34.95 is a highly improbable event with three principal characteristics: It is unpre dictable; it carries a massive impact; and, after the fact, we concoct an explanation that makes it appear less random, and more predictable, than it was. The astonishing success of Google was a black swan; so was 9 / 1 1 . For Nassim Nicholas Taleb, black swans underlie almost everything about our world, from the rise of religions to events in our own personal lives. A BLACK SWAN Why do we not acknowledge the phenomenon of black swans until after they occur? Part of the answer, according to Taleb, is that humans are hardwired to learn specifics when they should be focused on generalities. We concentrate on things we already know and time and time again fail to take into consideration what we don't know. We are, therefore, unable to truly estimate oppor tunities, too vulnerable to the impulse to simplify, narrate, and categorize, and not open enough to rewarding those who can imagine the "impossible." For years, Taleb has studied how we fool our selves into thinking we know more than we actually do. We restrict our thinking to the irrelevant and inconsequential, while large events continue to surprise us and shape our world. Now, in this reve latory book, Taleb explains everything we know about what we don't know. He offers...
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...Business and management terms dictionary 21-Gun Salute - Traditional honour given to royalty and heads of state, derived from the old signal of peaceful intent, when multiple firing practically removed capability for immediate threat due to re-loading time. 24-Carat/Karat - The purest form of gold (karat is US-English spelling, too soft for jewellery, hence gold jewellery is made of 22-carat, 18-carat, or 9-carat gold, etc., in which other metals such as copper are mixed. Carat is a measure of purity in which 24 parts equate (virtually) to 100% gold. 18-carat is therefore 75% gold. Less than 10-carat gold is generally not sold as gold. The carat measure of diamonds is different, for which carat is a measure of weight (1 carat = 200mg). 24-hour Society - Refers to a way of life available to many in the modern world in which people can work socialize, shop, bank, etc., 24 hours a day. The phenomenon has caused significant new thinking in business, management, marketing, etc., and continues to do so. ...
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...This essay is based on the 2007 book The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable by Nassim Nicholas Taleb (1960 - ). It is hardly an obscure tome, having been on the New York Times bestseller list for several weeks. Before I get to the essence of this essay I believe explaining what the term “Black Swan” means and saying a few words about the author would be in order. It was once thought in the Old World that only white swans existed. Then from Australia came the realization that there were black swans. And no, they were not white swans made black by bootblack or any other artificial coloring medium. After millennia of observations in the West of millions of white swans, the sighting of one black swan was enough to invalidate this long and firmly held belief. In a broader sense then A Black Swan is a sudden, monumental, and completely unexpected event. WWI, WWII, and 9/11 were Black Swans. If one were to win a multi-million dollars lottery that would be a personal Black Swan (Black Swans are not all negative, although given the troubles experienced by some of these huge lottery winners, this might also be negative). But a Black Swan is more than this – it goes to the heart of and challenges the putative acceptance of Gaussian probabilities. Least you think Gaussian or bell shaped probability functions are theoretical only and not important in real life, then consider that not only mathematics, but engineering, medicine, social sciences, economomics, the insurance...
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...The Art of Thinking Clearly Critical Review Colby Wallace Northern Alberta Institute of Technology Abstract This paper is a critical review on Rolf Dobelli’s novel, The Art of Thinking Clearly. It is composed of a literature review and a critical analysis. The literature review section will be a composition of research gathered to: have a better understanding of the books sources, test for sloppy reasoning and get a good understanding of how the book is perceived through reviews. All research will be done through the novel itself, N.A.I.Ts library database and reputable online sources. The information found in the literature review will then be evidence used to determine the answers to the seven key critical questions: 1. What is the source of the article? 2. What kind of publication is it for what audience? 3. What is the main point (thesis) of the article? 4. Are there any new insights about the topic that you did not have before reading it? 5. Do you agree or disagree with its position and evaluation of the topic? 6. How reliable is this particular source as a guide to the truth of the topic? 7. Also, which, if any, of the sloppy reasoning errors can be found in the article? The paper will close with a conclusion that reiterates the papers key points. The Art of Thinking Clearly Critical Review Dobelli, R. (2013). The Art of Thinking Clearly. London: Sceptre. The Art of Thinking Clearly (TAOTC) takes a philosophical look at...
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...A Black Swan is a sudden, and an unexpected event with a major impact and consequences. There are negative black swans such as wars, natural disasters, and pandemic, and there are positive black swans such as the internet, Harry Potter books, and scientific discoveries. All those phenomena have deeply impacted the world, and transformed lives. Nassin Nicholas Taleb was forced out of Lebanon because of a civil war that was thought unimaginable due to the secular characteristic of its society The author first experience of the Black Swan was the civil war in Lebanon in which different religious factions were fighting one another. At the beginning everyone thought that it will be short, since all the communities were living in harmony. As every Black Swan the impact is tremendous like it was the case in this civil war were family were force to moved out which also created mistrust between communities. the author has also focused a big part of the book describing two worlds. The first world is the Mediocristan in which everything is predictable or for the most part. In this world people earnings are correlated to their work, and in this segment events can be explained using the Gaussian distribution curve. The second world is the Extremistan, in which events are highly unpredictable, and their impact are sudden and can be catastrophic. One of this even would be 9/11 or the black Monday and Tuesday, when the U.S stock crashed causing a 22% decline of the market. For Taleb, Extremistan...
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...What is a Black Swan? My first thought when it was mentioned in class during the semester was the film Black Swan that hit theatres in 2011. I, of course, was completely wrong. A Black Swan in the business world, or as Taleb explains, anywhere in the world is an event that comes as surprise effects things drastically and is often looked upon as something that should have been seen coming in hindsight. The Black Swan theory was popularized by Nassim Nicholas Taleb, and is defined as an event that breaks off from what usually happened in a certain scenario and that is nearly impossible to predict. The theory is most commonly used in the business sense to describe markets, however, Taleb uses it in a sense to describe every sort of event that can happen in the world. The Black Swan is typically characterized by three criteria. These are rarity, extreme impact, and retrospective predictability. These Black Swan events allow for Taleb to discredit many things that are used in the financial world today, such as Gaussian’s bell curve. The theory of the Black Swan has been proved very important topic and is used and talked about by many people in not only the business world but in everything. Taleb gives an example of what the Black Swan name comes from by describing the actual myth of the black swan. For as long as people had known there was no other type of swan besides a white one. Until Australia was discovered no one had ever seen a black swan and it used as a common...
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...The theory of black swan events was developed by Nassim Taleb to explain the unpredictability of very rare high impact events that are normally beyond normal human expectations. The theory of black swan events has become a metaphor for unexpected events that cause shock and awe to victims and/or observers, and that these victims/observers who after experiencing the shock and awe of the unexpected event, tend to rationalize or find explanations that fit the ocurrence of the mishap among normal events. In its true sense as its developer- Nassim Taleb- intends it to mean, the "black swan theory" refers only to unexpected events of very large magnitude and consequence and whose occurrence in nature is so rare as to be considered not just outliers but extreme outliers. This means that Black swan events are so extreme that their probability is not computable using scientific methods. Black Swan events are also so called because they are events that fall within our blind spots, are oblivious not only to the mind but also to thought due to psychological biases that make people individually and collectively blind to uncertainty and unaware of the massive role of the rare event in historical affairs. Black swan events were introduced by Nassim Taleb in his 2004 book, Fooled By Randomness, which concerned financial events. In his 2007 book (revised and completed in 2010), The Black Swan, Taleb extended the metaphor to events outside of financial markets. Taleb regards...
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...the financial crisis and how it can be improved. Black Swans in this study are events that were the Achilles heel of financial models. There are usually 25 standard deviations evens that happen several days in a row. The purpose of this study is to discuss the implications of black swan events in asset pricing and risk management. Black Swan events disappeared for S&P Index returns are measured relative to standard deviation of the conditional S&P distribution. In this study a one day lagged VIX is used to provide an understandable measure of conditional S&P standard deviation (Marsh & Pfeiderer, 2012). The Research Question How did economists and others get it so wrong and what can be done to change it? Have risk modelers created an industry whose intense technical debates with each other lead gullible outsiders to believe that this is a profession with genuine expertise? Hypothesis "Extant models that properly encompass predictable shifts in investment risk ameliorate much of the alleged "black swan" problem and securities markets do in fact seem to be attuned to the risk of rare economic disasters and "price in" their risk"(Marsh & Pfeiderer, 2012, p 2). Main Findings The first finding is in the presence of significant model specification risk and estimation risk, decisions made by averse decision makers are more conservative rather than aggressive. Investors want to protect themselves against the black swan risk and may purchase insurance to help with the...
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...Risks exist in every aspect of business, but project management efforts are particularly sensitive to distinguishing and minimizing risk potential in order to complete the project in time. When a project management team determines project goals, it should discover all the risks that potentially threaten the achievement of these objectives. A comprehensive risk analysis can assist in finding out barriers to project’s success and develop contingency plans. Project management teams usually develop risk management plans that serve to identify risks, strategize ways to minimize or avoid those risks and develop contingency plans in case risks occur and delay a project’s completion. Projects often get started in the right way but then get off course. For example, project managers will take their time and resources to develop a clear scope and detailed plan with their team. Then something unexpected happens, such as natural disaster or major equipment failures. The project managers and team shift into their reactive mode and try to manage this risk based on their experiences and best judgment. But they do not know for sure if it works and hope for best because they don’t have time to analyze whole procedure and they have no opportunity to test it out. This is not risk management instead it is management in disaster. The problem is not a lack of understanding the “why, what, who, or when” of risk management. Lack of effectiveness comes most often from not knowing “how to”. To be fully...
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...To what extend the need of being perfect leads man to its own destruction? Perfection seen through the film “The Black Swan”. Claudia Patricia Villacís Galarza IB Code: 001421-054 Words: 3980 Abstract The research question of this extended essay is: To what extend the need of being perfect leads man to its own destruction? It is an analysis of perfection through the film The Black Swan. In the film the main character, Nina, is an obsessed ballerina who at the end destroyed her own life. I began the essay trying to prove that her obsession with being perfect is what leaded her to her destruction and death, but after analyzing the movie it all turned around. I based my investigation in reviews of the film, different type of articles; such as from doctors who give their opinion about Nina’s behavior. These ones in particular where the most important for the answer of my research question, because these doctors have analyzed the mental condition of Nina and together with my own opinion it helped me to come to a conclusion. I also focused on the opinion of various dancers about the film, because they are the ones that understand the world of ballet more than anyone else. At last there were also interviews with the director to explain why he decided to make this movie and what he was trying to prove through it. The movie was, of course my principal source, I applied the whole investigation in the analysis of the movie. Then after having read all that information and having...
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...Milestone One: Annotation Bibliography By Vincent Berry WHAT IS YOUR RESEARCH QUESTION? Are record labels racism and political in the music industry? What impact does racism and politics have on the artist and fan base? SUMMORIZE SOURCE INFORMATION FOR EACH ANNOTATION Suisman, David. "Co Workers in the Kingdom of Culture: Black Swan Records and the Political Economy of African American Music." Teaching the Journal of American History Vol. 90, No. 4.March 2004 (2004): 1295-1324. Web. 1 Mar. 2004. African American owned Record Company, which produced records for African American consumers, was faced with attempts by a large record corporation to force them into bankruptcy. Why would a large company do this for such a small African American owned company? How would it merit attention from African American people in this medium when you have more important subjects like voting rights and lynching? Moreover, why would it merit any attention at all, not to mention, selling records to black consumers. This article answers these questions and investigates the rise and fall of the small record company and explores the political economy in which it operated. Black Swan Records created by Henry H. Pace, who saw a way to respond to a hostile environment that African American people faced with, both in the entertainment industry and in American society. The protégé of W.E.B Du Bois, also saw that African Americans were not equally even when they were freed from slavery. Access to material...
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... South Korea b a r t i c l e i n f o Keywords: Marine debris Entanglement Ingestion Threatened species Recreational fishing gear a b s t r a c t Over the last decade, marine debris has become a major factor affecting the coastal ecosystem of Korea. This study compiled information regarding how marine debris impacts wildlife in Korea. Cases of marine debris impacting wildlife were collected from experts of various fields and from local participants through an open access website from February 2010 to March 2012. A total of 21 species were affected by marine debris: 18 species of birds, 2 species of mammals, and 1 species of crustacean. Five threatened or protected species were identified: black-faced spoonbill, finless porpoise, water deer, whooper swan, and greater painted snipe. Recreational fishing gears were the types of...
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