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Global Economics Paper No: 192
Goldman Sachs Global Economics, Commodities and Strategy Research at https://360.gs.com

The Long-Term Outlook for the BRICs and N-11 Post Crisis
The BRIC and N-11 countries are emerging from the crisis better than the developed world. As a result, our long-term projections for the BRICs look more, rather than less, likely to be realised. It is now possible that China will become as big as the US by 2027, and the BRICs as big as the G7 by 2032. Within the BRICs and N-11, China, Brazil, India, Indonesia and the Philippines appear to be performing best. Bangladesh, Egypt, Korea, Nigeria, Turkey and Vietnam form a second group of countries that have performed broadly in line with expectations. Iran, Mexico, Pakistan and Russia have need for improvement. We show the ongoing dramatic BRIC influence in key product markets, with autos and crude oil as examples.

Important disclosures appear at the back of this document

Thanks to Dominic Wilson, Michael Buchanan, Paulo Leme and Swarnali Ahmed for their valuable comments, and to Alex Kelston for the Growth Environment Scores

Jim O’Neill and Anna Stupnytska

December 4, 2009

Goldman Sachs Global Economics, Commodities and Strategy Research

Global Economics Paper

Contents
Summary Section 1. Where We Stand on the BRICs and N-11 Section 2. The BRICs and N-11 in the Aftermath of the Crisis
2.1 BRICs and N-11 Global Importance Continues to Rise

3 4 6
6

Higher growth contribution Increasing trade shares Rebalancing current accounts Domestic demand and economic resilience
2.2 BRICs Market Performance in Context

6 8 8 9
10

Deeper falls and sharper bounces in equities Currency performance Powerful new signs in terms of monetary policy

10 11 11

Section 3. Our 2009 GES for the BRICs and N-11
Technology posts significant improvement; macro stability

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