Working document
Bucharest Forum Energy

The Black Sea Energy Regatta
Sustained Growth via Integrated Energy Policy (Working title)

May 23-24, 2013

Ziua I – Joi 23 Mai

Ceremonia oficiala de deschidere Sesiunea I: Rationamentul din spatele Agenderi Energetice la Marea Neagra – sesiune plenara SESSION I: The Rationale for a Black Sea Energy Agenda - Plenary session Triunghiul ingust dintre Adriatica, Marea Caspica si Marea Neagra este din multe puncte de vedere cheia catre viitorul comertului si securitatii economice pentru Europa in ceea ce pirveste Sud Est. Pentru Bucharest Forum, aceasta regiune, precum si legatura pe care o creaza intre Europa, Asia Centrala si Levant este un adevarat centru de atentie. Conform acestei logici, Marea Neagra este pivotul economic si politic ce modeleaza dinamismul triunghiului format din cele trei mari. Pornind de la probleme de securitate de baza pana la relatiile Est- Vest si competie vs. cooperare in domeniul economic, toate asemenea tipuri de provocari converg in aceasta zona. Cand vne vorba de eneregie, din nou, Marea Neagra este un portal, un furnizor de solutii dar si o sursa de neintelegere si competitie. Fiind aproximativ o mare inchisa, este faimoasa pentru furtunile puternice ce strabat (in special pe parcursul iernii)ce apar rapid si apparent de nicaieri. Navigabilitatea Marii Negre este scopul acestui panel de deschidere al BF Energy. Vom ridica intrebari legate de viitorul exploatarii energetic, comert, investitii si cooperare in Marea Nagra. Cateva dintre punctele de pe agenda panelistilor include: * Explorarea resurselor energetice din largul Marii Negre; situatia actuala si previziunile privind evoultia starii de fapt; necesitatile investitionale si oportunitatile implicite; cooperarea energetic, oportunitatile de afaceri; ingrijorarilre privind mediul * Standarde si certficari * Raportul Lugar pe tema “Energie si securitate de la Marea Caspica catre Europa” * Marea Neagra ca ruta comerciala si de transport a energiei: South Stream , Nabucco * Pietele energetice din jurul Marii Negre si stabilirea unui curs pentru o agenda cooperanta in domeniul energetic The narrow triangle between the Adriatic, the Caspian and the Back Sea is in many ways a key to the future of trade and economic security for Europe when it comes to its South East. For Bucharest Forum, this area, as well as the connection it creates between Europe, Central Asia and the Levant, is the central object of attention. In this logic, the Black Sea is the very hinge of the economic and political forces that shape the dynamics of the three seas triangle. From hard-core security issues to East -West relations and economic competition versus cooperation, all types of challenges converge here. When it comes to energy, again the Black Sea is a gateway, a solution provider but also a source of contentions and tough competition. An almost closed sea reputed for the fierce storms that haunt it (in particular during winter) and that appear very quickly and apparently from nowhere. Navigating its waters is the purpose if this opening panel of BF Energy. We will raise questions regarding the future of energy exploration, trade, investment and cooperation at the Black Sea. Some of the items on the agenda of the panelists are: * Exploration of Black Sea offshore energy resources; state of play and future development expectations; investment needs and opportunities; energy cooperation, business opportunities; environmental concerns * Certificates and standards * The Lugar Report on “Energy and Security from the Caspian to Europe” * The Black Sea as an energy transport and trade route: South Stream, Nabucco etc. * Energy markets around the Black Sea and plotting a course for a cooperative energy agenda Sesiunea a 2-a: Necunoscutele cunoscute: Noii Clasici – Sesiune de lucru SESSION II: The Known Unknowns: New Classics - Working session In pofida incetinirii cresterii ratelor ecnomice in regiue si indeosebi in UE, energia pare a fi un sector cu o crestere stabila inclusiv pe termen lung. Exista o serie de motive temeinice pentru aceasta. Incepand cu resursele regenerabile si eficientizarea energicei provenita din combustibilii fosili, toate sectoare beneficiaza de investitii si de o schimbare de paradigma la nivel operational(o schimbare la nivelul paradigmei operationale).Tiparul de investitii si de comert dar si dezvoltarea economica, progitabilitate si independent energetic sau securiatea energetic joaca un rol semnificativ O arie de interes ce a cunoscut un interes deosebit de dynamic din partea investitorilor, guvernului si autoritatilor de reglementare sunt asa numitii “noi clasici”. Gazele de sist, third and forth stage gas, explorarea campurilor petroliere sunt subiecte de interes pentru investiorii din domeniul energetic si companiile de tehnologie energetic. Printre temele de discutie propuse: * Exploatarea gazelor de sist si utilizarea acestora * Tehnologie si provocarile tehnologice; probleme de mediu * Modele pentru cadrul de reglementare al diverselor faze * Neceistatile de investitii si oportunitati * Rolul “noilor clasici”in mixul energetic al Romaniei si al regiunii * Politicile de pret si impactul asupra securitatii energetice si al comertului Despite the downturn in the economic growth rates in the region and in particular in the EU, energy appears to be a long term and stable growth sector. There are many good reasons for this. From renewable sources and energy efficiency to fossil fuels, all sectors see investment and a rethinking of operational paradigms. Trade and investment patterns but also interlocking economic development, profitability and energy independence or energy security issues play a significant role. One area that has seen a very dynamic interest from investors, governments and regulators concerns the new classics. Shale, third and fourth stage gas and oil fields exploration are hot items for energy investors and energy technology companies. Among the proposed topics for discussion: * Shale gas exploration and use * Technology and technological challenges; Environmental concerns * Models for regulatory framework for various phases * Investment requirements and opportunities * The role of the new classics in the energy mix of Romania and the region * Pricing policies and impact on energy security and trade Sesiunea III: Beneficii mutual: Oportunitatile trans – regionale: Sesiune de lucru SESSION III: Mutual Benefits: Trans-regional Opportunities - Working session Cheia catre agenda de cooperare energetic in Sud Estul Europei este in mod inevitabil legata de oportunitatile trans-regionale. Acestea includ un spectru larg de actiuni, de la electricitatea peste granite si interconectarile ce fac o piata energetica trans- Europeana practica, chiar daca nu neaprat mai usuoara, in ceea ce priveste conductele de gaze si petrol pe lunga distant si terminalele portuare sau pe rauri. Discutiile nu vor acoperi exclusive infrastructura fizica ci si cea legala sic ea institutional. Toate acestea se confrunta cu provocari ecnomice, politice si de guvernanta. Pe langa o viziune comuna, sau cel putin un set impartasit de perspective, exista aceasta necessitate practica pentru tratate bilateral si multilateral, proiecte comune iar competitita si ïngehsuiala”: fata de aceste resurse bogate dar limitate ( atat in termenei de energie cat si de capacitati investitionale). Vom acoperi cateva dintre problemele critice: * Interconexiuni – conducte; contracte pe teremen lung, intelegeri guvernamentale; despagubiri; burse de marfuri; directive Europene privind interdependentele si cooperarea nergetica * Starea de fapt a cooperarii energetic in regiune * Intelegerile de transport energetic dintre state * Mecanismele Intra- EUropene de despagubiri * Poltica de securitate energetica a UE The key to a cooperative energy agenda in South Eastern Europe is inevitably linked to trans-regional opportunities. These include a whole spectrum of undertakings, from cross-border electricity and gas interconnections that make a trans-European market for energy practical, if not necessarily easy, to long distance gas and oil pipelines and port and river terminals. Discussions will cover not only physical infrastructures but also legal and institutional ones. All these face economic, political and governance challenges. Besides a common vision, or at least a set of shared perspectives, there is the practical need for bilateral and multilateral agreements, joint projects and the competition and the jostling for rich but limited resources (both in terms of energy and investment capabilities) remain acute. We will cover some of the critical issues: * Interconnections - pipelines; long-term contracts; governmental agreements; compensations; stock exchanges; European directives regarding interconnections and energy cooperation * State of play of energy cooperation in the region * Energy transport agreements between states * Intra-European compensation mechanisms * EU energy security policy Sesiunea IV: Economia Verde, Eficienta energetica – Sesiune plenara SESSION IV: Green Economy, Energy Efficiency - Plenary session In incheierea primei zile, ne vom uita la principalele forte de duc la competitivitate in viitorul economic European. Pretul energiei si securitatea ofertei fac cu siguranta parte din acesta dar in mod egal exista elemente referitoare la cadrul Uniunii europene pentru energia verde si tehnologiile energiei verzi si solutiilor. Obiectivele 20/20/20 vizeaza directive eficientei energetic, precum si intreg pahetul de energie verde al polticilor UE, ce trebuie luate in considerare impreuna. Mai mult, exita provocari legate cu implementarea shcemelor costisitoare si utilizarea noilor tehnologiii ce au un impact atat asupra controlarii emisiilor de gaze de sera cat si costuri via eficienta energetic si solutiile de energie curate. Pentru Europa si Romania, acestea ofera o noua revolutie tehnologica comparavbila cu impactul economiei digitale. Toate acestea, totusi, prezinta costuri pentru companii, govern si consumatorul final. Luare de decizii politice pertinente in cadrul poltiiclor europene nu este intotdeauna facil. Cand, pe deasupra, economia ROmaniiei trebuie sa echilibreze reindustrializarea si rethnologizarea economiei si a fortei de munca intr-un context globalizat,digita, este clar ca deciziile devin critice si de lunga durata: * Energii regenerabile, lectii invatate si pasi urmatori * Directivele Europene:decalajul eficientei energetic in Romania * Dimensiunile eficientei energetic: tehnologie, politici publice * Economia verde:investiiile in tehnologie de catre mediul de afaceri, competitivitate, osturi, impactul asupra fortei de munca * Lacomia inteligenta si contributiile sectorului de electricitate la o economie verde * Autoritati publice: transport, izolare termica * Retea inteligenta (ENel) Closing the first day, we will look at what are the main driving forces for competitiveness in the future European economy. Energy price and security of supply are certainly part of it, but equally so are the elements related to the EU framework for a green economy and emerging green energy technologies and solutions. The 20/20/20 targets the energy efficiency directive, as well as the entire green economy package of EU policies, which need to be considered together. Besides, there are challenges related to implementing costly schemes and using new technologies that have an impact on both managing greenhouse emissions and cost via energy efficiency and clean energy solutions. We are not only talking about energy generation but the entire ecosystem. For Europe and Romania, this offers a new technological revolution on a par with the impact of the digital economy. All these, however, have a price tag for companies, the government and the end user. Making the right policy choices in the framework of EU policies is not always easy. When, on top of everything, the Romanian economy needs to balance the reindustrialization and retooling of its economy and its workforce for a digital and globalized context, it is clear that decisions are becoming critical and their effect lasting. * Renewables, lessons learned and what next * European directives – Romania’s energy efficiency gap * Energy efficiency dimensions: technology, public policy * Green economy – investments in technology by businesses, competitiveness, cost, impact on employment * Smart greed and the electricity sector’s contribution to a green economy * Public authorities – transport, thermal insulation * Smart grid (Enel) Ziua a doua - 24 Mai Vineri
Day two – Friday May 24 Sesiunea a 5-a : Mai mult decat energie: un continuum de resurse naturale - sedinta plenara SESSION V: More than Energy: a Continuum of Natural Resources - Plenary session Energia este probabil jocul cu cea mai mare miza si cea mai semnificativa crestere dar nu este si singurul. Mai mult, este in stransa legatura cu alte resurse naturale ce sunt sau pot fi explorate si exploatate. Intrebarea despre administrarea mixului de resurse devine o zona aparate in porocesul decizional politic. Acest panel urmareste o serie de astfel de interactiuni si doreste sa exploreze oportunitatile existente si viitoare din domeniu.Energia este un factor in exploatarea resurselor naturale dar este ofera si sinergii in investitii, dezvoltarea infrastructurii,etc. * Carbunele - mai merita? Care este viitorul ? * Exploatarea inteligenta * Industrializarea * Apa * Uranium * Dar despre alte resurse? Energy is maybe the highest growth game in town but it is not the only one. Also, it is intimately linked to other natural resources that are or may be explored and exploited. The question of managing a resources mix becomes a very special area of policy making. This panel looks at some of the interactions and aims at exploring existing and future opportunities in the field. Energy is a factor in natural resources exploitation but it also offers synergies in investment, infrastructure development, etc. * Coal – is it still worth it? What’s the future? * Smart exploitation * Industrialization * Water * Uranium * What about the other resources? Sesiunea a 6-a: Cum sa construiesti cadrul legal si de reglementare pentru energie: Trendurile Pietei locale si asteptari - Sesiune de lucru SESSION VI: How to Build the Ideal Legal and Regulatory Framework for Energy: Local Market Trends and Expectations - Working session Jucatorii privati si publici din acest sector echilibreaza in mod constant UE, cadrul national si general pentru dezvoltarea sectorului energetic si investitii. Alegerea unei decizii corecte creaza oportunitati de investitii si, in contextul Romaniei, poate facilita rolul sau regional de hub energetic. Vom lua in considerare reglementarile deja existente precum si pe cele noi si trendurile actuale; necesitatea unui nou mediu si unui pachet legislativ economic pentru toate tipurile de exploatare si extractie; redevente;regimuri de proprietate a statului; liberalizarea pietei. Public and private players in this sector are constantly balancing EU, regional and national frameworks for energy sector development and investment. Making the right choices creates opportunities for investment and, in the context of Romania, it could facilitate its role of regional energy gateway or hub. We will consider existing and new regulation and trends; the need for a new environment and economic legislation package for all types of exploration and extraction; royalties; state property regimes; market liberalization. Sesiunea VII: Finantearea energiei: - sesiune de lucru SESSION VII: Financing Energy - Working session Aceasta sesiune este dedicata conditiilor si provocarilor in afinanta ideile. Institutii bancare, Oraganizatii internationale financiare, bugete nationale si ale UE precum si corporatii publice si private au cu toatele miliarde de euro destinati a fi investiti in acest sector si in regiunea Romaniei.Ce va face aceste afaceri cu adevarat profitabile atat pentru investitori cat si pentru dezvoltarori este o intrebare complexa. Acest panel este dedicat sa adreseze aceasta intrebare din perspectiva cei care iau deviziile investitionale., de la lideri corporatisti din domeniul energiei dar si in sectorul bancar, Comisia Europeana si BERD, reprezentatntii BEI, pana la oficialii ministerului. * investitii corporatiste in electrricitate si sectorul petrol si gaze naturale * investitii publice in sectorul energetic; finantarea unei transformari eficiente ale sectorului trasnporturi * investitii in reabilitarea trasnportului * dezvoltarea reteleie electrice * investiii la scala larga a infrastructurii energetice * scheme locale pentru eficienta energetica * certificarile si rolul acestora * comeptitia si problemele reglementarilor * stabilitatea legata si institutionala pentru investiiile la scala larga This session is dedicated to the conditions and challenges to putting money behind ideas. Banking institutions IFO, national budgets and the EU as well as private and public corporations all have billions of euros scheduled for investment in this sector and in Romania’s region. What will make those businesses really profitable for both investors and developers, as well as the countries in the region, is a complex question. This panel is dedicated to addressing this question via the voice of those making investment decisions from corporate leaders in the energy but also banking sector, European Commission and EBRD, EIB representatives, to ministry officials. * Corporate investment in the electricity and oil and gas sector * Public investment in the energy sector; Financing efficient transformation of the transport sector * Investment in transportation rehabilitation * Developing the electricity grid * Large scale investment in energy infrastructure * Local schemes for energy efficiency * Certificates and the role of * Competition and regulatory issues * Legal and institutional stability for large scale investment

Sesiunea a VII-a: Scenarii relaiste pentru mixul energetic - optiuni concurente, rezultate posibile - sesiune plenara Inchiem forumul cu un subiect ce intergreaza toate elementele anterioare intr-o intrebare clasica: ce mix energetic pentru ROmania? Jucatorii publici si privati trebuie sa raspunda la aceasta intrebare. Atat dintr-o perspectiva investitionala cat si dintr-un unghi strategic, raspunsul la aceasta intrebare nu poate fi autrahc. Evoultiile investitionale si comerciale, cadrul de reglementare UE, optiunile actionarilor, contextul comeptititvitatii si al ocuparii fortei de munca, prioritatile poltiice, provocarile tehnologice si geologie, intrebarile legate de finantare, probleme ce tin de securitate, toate se cumuleaza pentru a transforma din posibil in actual, mixul de energie.Romania are alternative. Acesasta este vestea buna. Unele sunt mai bune decat altele, dar o serie pot fi luate in considerare. CU toate acestea, dimensiunea investiiiolor si duratia optinulir fac ferestrea de oportunitate ingusta. Acest panel urmareste cum sa legam aspectele intr-o conversatie strategica despre mixul optim. Ideal, acesta este unul care ofera: cel mai bun pret, la cea mai mare disponibilitate si independenta, cu cel mai mare avantaj compeittiv pentru economia Romaniei, maximizarea ocuparii fortei de munca, ISD si a comertului dar si transferul de tehnologie, protejarea mediului si respectarea de catre ROmania a angajamentelor fata de UE. De fapt, acest lucru nu este imposibil. Dorim mai putin o discutie teoretica despre strategia energetica si mai mult o concluzie avizata, bazandu-ne pe expertiza panelistilor si pe rezultaele din panelurile precendente. SESSION VIII: Realistic Scenarios for the Energy Mix – Competing options, possible outcomes - Plenary session We conclude the Forum with a topic that integrates all the previous elements into a classical question: what energy mix for Romania? Public and private players need to answer this question. From both an investment perspective and from a strategic angle, the answer to this question cannot be autarchic. Trade and investment developments, EU regulatory framework, corporate stockholder’s options and policies, employment and competitiveness contexts, political priorities, technological and geological challenges, financing questions, security issues all have to come together in shaping the possible into the actual energy mix. Romania has options. That is the good part. Some are better than others, but several may be considered. However, the scale of investment and the duration of choices make the window of opportunity relatively narrow. This panel will look into how to best link these aspects into a strategic conversation on the optimal mix. Ideally, this is one that offers: the best price for the highest availability and independence, with greatest competitive advantage for the Romanian economy, maximizing employment, FDI and trade, but also transferring technology, protecting the environment and fulfilling Romania’s EU obligations. In fact, this is not impossible. We aim less for a theoretical discussion about the energy strategy and more for an educated conclusion building on the expertise of panelists and the results of the work done in previous panels.