...is a computer necessary in conducting a realworld simulation? Answer It is important because there are many different types of outcomes that comes in with simulation. Computers are used in daily life activities and it is necessary. 14-11 What is operational gaming? What is systems simulation? Give examples of how each may be applied. Answer Operational gaming is the use of simulation in competitive situations such as military games and business or management. System simulation ls that deal with the dynamics of large organizational or governmental systems. Validation The process of comparing a model to the real system that it represents to make sure that it is accurate. 14-17 (a) Resimulate the number of stockouts incurred over a 20-week period (assuming Higgins maintains a constant supply of 8 heaters). (b) Conduct this 20-week simulation two more times and compare your answers with those in part (a). Did they change significantly? Why or why not? (c) What is the new expected number of sales per week? Answer A. The number of stockouts incurred over a 20 week period is HOT WATER NUMBER OF HEATER SALES WEEKS THIS PER WEEK NUMBER WAS SOLD 3 2 4 9 5 10 6 15 7 25 8 12 9 12 10 10 B, Two more times would give us the value of a multiplied by 2. c. 25 14-18 A. 15 days of barge uploadings and average number of barges delayed B, They both are probabilistic simulations. Chapter 5 HW 5-14 Using MAD, determine whether...
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...As we know, business processes are critical to success of companies. This Business Process Management (BPM) simulation game gives us a better understanding of how the effective BPM impacts the whole business operation system. Also, this game demonstrates how we should do to improve the business process to make it more interconnected, intelligent and sustainable. From this game, we can see how BPM allows me to alter critical business process that affect not only the profit and customer satisfaction but also the environmental factors. In this game, firstly, we are given a HEAT map. The HEAT map is a component-based model of the company. It presents three types of management activity performed: Direct activities, Control activities and Execute activities. Also it shows us many groups of related business activities. It is a graphical representation of data where the concentrations of questionable factors are represented by corresponding colors in the model. This model provides us the useful information to analyze the current operation of AFTER, and helps us find out which area we should focus on to improve the process management. Then, we are required to create “As-Is” process maps. In order to pick a model that best fit the company, we have to know what’s the need of the company, what’s the problem the company is facing now and then decide how to solve these problems by improve the “As-Is” process. There are four tasks in the process, which are “collect caller information”...
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...Jet Copy Simulation Prepared by Joe Miller Prepared for February 7th 2013 TABLE OF CONTENTS INTRODUCTION SUMMARY JET COPY SIMILATION CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS APPENDIX INTRODUCTION The purpose of this report is to examine the feasibility to for Jet Copy to purchase a second copy machine. Based on copies produced and lost with only the use of one copier. In this report I will use data from a simulation to assist in the determination of an additional copier for Jet Copy. As a reminder that this is a random simulation and the information in the simulation will only assist between when the test stop and 52 week will not have great affect on the outcome of the in the decision making. The simulation that was run was base on a 52 week scenario. The actual results are based on 51 week trial. The difference between the 51 week test and the actual 52 weeks will not have any great impact on the recommendation. ------------------------------------------------- SUMMARY This report creates a simulation that shows one possible outcome for Jet Copier when there one copier is out for repair for up to 4 days. It will also aid in the decision to ad d or not to add a second copier. This report will answer the following questions: 1. Using Excel to generate the number of days needed to repair the copier. 2. Using Excel to generate the interval between successive breakdowns according to continuous distribution. 3. Using Excel, use a suitable method to...
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...Assignment #1: JET Copies Case Problem Read the “JET Copies” Case Problem on pages 678-679 of the text. Using simulation estimate the loss of revenue due to copier breakdown for one year, as follows: 1. In Excel, use a suitable method for generating the number of days needed to repair the copier, when it is out of service, according to the discrete distribution shown. 2. In Excel, use a suitable method for simulating the interval between successive breakdowns, according to the continuous distribution shown. 3. In Excel, use a suitable method for simulating the lost revenue for each day the copier is out of service. 4. Put all of this together to simulate the lost revenue due to copier breakdowns over 1 year to answer the question asked in the case study. 5. In a word processing program, write a brief description/explanation of how you implemented each component of the model. Write 1-2 paragraphs for each component of the model (days-to-repair; interval between breakdowns; lost revenue; putting it together). 6. Answer the question posed in the case study. How confident are you that this answer is a good one? What are the limits of the study? Write at least one paragraph. Case Problem James Banks was standing in line next to Robin Cole at Klecko’s Copy Center, waiting to use one of the copy machines. “ Gee, Robin, I hate this,” he said. “We have to drive all the way over here from Southgate and then wait in line to use these copy machines...
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...Using System Dynamics in Business Simulation Training Games by Jennifer Ching-Wen Han Submitted to the Department of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree of Masters of Engineering in Electrical Engineering and Computer Science at the MASSACHUSETTS INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY May 9th, 1997 © Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 1997. All Rights Reserved. Au th or ............................................................................. Departmenft-f Electrical Engineering and Computer Science May 9th, 1997 Certified by .... .................................. ................... Richard C. Larson _Th sis Supervisor Accepted by ........ ............ Arthur C. Smith Chairman, Department Committee on Graduate Theses ...... Using System Dynamics in Business Simulation Training Games by Jennifer Ching-Wen Han Submitted to the Department of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science May 9th, 1997 In Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree of Masters of Engineering in Electrical Engineering and Computer Science ABSTRACT This thesis project includes researching and designing a system dynamics model for use in an existing Andersen Consulting Education (ACE) project management training game. This serves two major purposes. The first is to show how system dynamics can be used as a realistic and potentially superior method of business modeling. The second is to actually improve...
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...INTRODUCTION: The purpose of this paper is to bring out the use of Simulation by Managers of various organizations. Under discussion will be: Definition of simulation. Model construction. When and why it becomes handy to use simulation. Steps used in simulation technique. Random selection in simulation. Advantages / benefits derived from use of simulation technique. Disadvantages /Challenges associated with simulation technique. Role of computer in simulation. Conclusion / comments. Definition of simulation: Simulation can be defined as a quantitative technique which describes a process by developing a model of that process and then conduct a series of organized trial and error experiments to predict the behavior of the process through time often with the aid of a computer. It is a method that is used to solve a problem in many areas of management, for example inventory management, queuing problems, profit analysis and project management among others. Model construction: A successful simulation model has to be carefully designed in order to achieve the intended predictive purpose. Therefore important factors have to be considered such as; i. It must be objective oriented. It must be constructed for a purpose and be able to achieve that purpose. ii. Critical variables and relationships. These must be identified and incorporated in model. However it is not essential or indeed desirable to include all variables in the model. iii. Simplicity...
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...Applied mathematics in Engineering, Management and Technology 2 (2) 2014:466-475 www.amiemt-journal.com Using a combined method of hierarchical analysis and Monte Carlo simulation in order to identify and prioritize the target market selection criteria (Case study: Food distribution companies of Mashhad-Iran) Amir kariznoee Ph.D. student of Industrial Management,University of Mazandaran ,Iran (Corresponding Author's E-mail: Amir.kariznoee@yahoo.com) Monireh Bijandi Graduate of Accounting in Ferdowsi University of Mashhad,Iran Mahdi Ghayur Maddah Student of Public Management in Ferdowsi University of Mashhad,Iran Vajihe Mogharabi M.A. Student of Information Technology Management, Shahid beheshti University,Tehran,Iran Abstract The aim of this study is to identify and prioritize the key factors in selecting a target market in the food industry. In order to determine the components and subcomponents of this study, we have used previous researches in this area. In order to match these factors with the food industry situation and create a hierarchical structure, we have obtained the opinions of 323 experts about affecting factors on choosing a market in this industry with the use of questionnaire. Then, using a combination of hierarchal analysis process and Monte Carlo simulation and cooperation with 10 senior executives of distribution companies, the weight of each component and sub-component was determined. In general, four components and ten sub-components were...
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...is considered formal as they are structured and planned to facilitate the job description. As for the manager’s training in particular, formal settings, such as classroom lectures at the tertiary level or the organization’s own training institution providing coaching by outsourced professionals or the company’s own executives, seminars, workshops and meetings of company’s executives fostering networking and management development are recommended. Whatever the setting are the methodologies applied therein are conceptually the same as they are essentially structured to improve skills and knowledge. The contents of management training normally target issues facing the company as well as bench marking or leaning “best practice”/scenario simulation that...
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...Securities Tutorial Questions Option pricing using Simulation Techniques QUESTION 1 This question refers to the VBA program “Monte Carlo European Option.xlsm” as well as the option discussed in lectures (details repeated as follows) Stock price is currently traded at $1.76. Calculate the price of a European call (strike $1.60, maturity 3 months) on one share. Assume risk free rate of 10% p.a., stock price volatility is 30% p.a. and company not expected to pay any dividends over the next 3 months a) Briefly explain the methodology used to value the European call and put. b) Explain how you would modify the code to price an Asian option. c) Approximate the rho by changing the risk free rate to 9%. Compare this to that from the BSM model where [pic]. d) Now assume a dividend yield of 2% p.a payable over the life of the option. Re-price the option (with risk free rate at 10%). Is the price consistent with your expectations? Why/why not? e) Describe how you could modify the code to allow for leptokurtosis (fat tails). QUESTION 2 Describe how you could use a simulation to price an option using the binomial tree approach. QUESTION 3 Describe the difference between a bootstrap and a monte carlo simulation. Discuss one advantage and disadvantage of the monte carlo approach. QUESTION 4 A Public–private partnership (PPP) describes a government service or private business venture which is funded and operated through a partnership...
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...Case Study: Pearl & Mutual Student’s Name Course Title Tutor Institution Date Introduction Pearl & Mutual Benefit and Insurance Company is an insurance company that has been employing expensive and well-trained graduates. However, after an evaluation process was carried out, it was found that there lies a retention problem in the company. According to the assessment that had been conducted to the end of 2005, 60% of the employees have left the company. Notably, the employees joined other industries and not the financial sector. The lack of retention questions the reasons that the employees leave the company. This report is set out to the Human Resource Director of the Pearl & Mutual Benefit and Insurance Company and displays a coherent evaluation of best practices in the graduate selection process to ensure that only competent and passionate graduates are employed. Also, the time and the cost to achieve these recommendations are also stated in the report. Current scenario Currently, the graduate selection process at Pearl & Mutual Benefits and Insurance Company involves a panel that is chaired by the senior manager. The method includes the panelists determining the behavioral and motivational competencies of the applicants. The panelists then identify the most qualified candidates by giving each candidate a rating. However, it has been noted that there exist varied ratings provided by each different panelist. Various ratings demonstrate...
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...Crisis Management Simulations Preparing for the unexpected is what most businesses and governments strive to do. They hope to curb the next disaster in their favor. Or in worst-case scenario, businesses and governments hope to at least curb the crisis to be the least damaging to their image. The question people struggle with is how can these organizations prepare for every possible crisis they could encounter? It is simple: they cannot. However, with today’s technology many organizations have implemented crisis management simulations to better prepare for these worst-case scenarios as well as test the organizations’ tactics used in managing crises. Crisis simulations are relatively new and unheard of in some companies. Crisis management’s purpose is to engage “the whole organization in efforts to avert crises that may affect the firm, and to effectively manage those that do occur” (Pearson, n.d.). Organized crises are used in firms to simulate a crisis, such as a PR scandal or terrorist attack, and test the organization’s reaction to the event, how the crisis is handled, and if it is done effectively. These simulations are recently becoming popular to use in organizations because of new technology that gives them a real-time, fast-paced feel. Companies are now realizing that “as the development of new technology outpaces our ability to fully understand its impact, and as global reach relentlessly stretches organizational capabilities, ‘firefighting’ becomes a way of life” (Pearson...
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...the probability distribution of the wait for repair services on JET’s copier. To model the probability of wait times in the JET Copies simulation, the JET partners generated a random number representing the probability of an occurrence of a breakdown. They then programmed a VLOOKUP function to match this breakdown probability to the corresponding “Repair Time in Days” column of the table. The result is the simulated time to get repair service for each breakdown occurrence. Interval between breakdowns The James, Ernie, and Terri purchased a copier just like the one used at their college office. When Ernie talked with someone in the dean’s office at State, he was told that the University’s copier broke down frequently often for 1 to 4 days. The partners became worried that their machine would also frequently break down. Although they could not get an exact probability distribution, James was able to determine that breakdowns occurred between 0 and 6 weeks apart. The probability of a breakdown increased as time passed. To model the time between breakdowns in their simulation, JET created a list of random numbers. Next, they applied the probability function f(x) = 2x/a2 0≤ x ≤ a. For this situation, the formula used is x = a √r. Since James estimated breakdowns occur zero to six weeks apart, the formula he used for this simulation is x = 6√r1. He then generated a list of random numbers and applied the formula to each random number. The result is the simulated time...
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...Simulation 2 Write-Up During the simulation there were many different factors leading to varying results. One of the biggest causes for variation was in the performance of the worker. The worker had the impression that they were under a time constraint. The performance of the worker was usually kept constant until the last 5 or 10 drawings of cards, which is when the worker felt the pressure to draw cards faster. Another cause of variation was the shuffling of the worker. If the worker didn’t shuffle the cards thoroughly it would result in a varied outcome from normal results. This variation is considered a normal cause for variation because as the time constraint became more noticeable the workers would shuffle differently. This occurred more on the last few draws each round. One special cause occurred when the professor walked over to our workstation and had a conversation. This distracted the worker and simulated a special cause for variation. In order to improve the process, I would first designate a worker for shuffling the cards so we could eliminate time used passing the cards. This worker would then split the cards into two piles. Then I would assign two other workers the jobs of counting the cards after they have been separated. The workers would then both tell a single recorder the amounts to be recorded. This would be repeated with the designated shuffler. In order to assure that the second supplier is delivering the promised quality, we made a second...
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...Monte Carlo Simulation Tutorial This tutorial shows how to use Microsoft Excel to develop Monte Carlo simulations without the use of add-ins or special software (such as @RISK or Crystal Ball). (Note, however, that there are some important advantages of using these dedicated software packages.) After completing the tutorial you should have a sufficient understanding of Monte Carlo concepts and Excel capabilities to begin building your own Monte Carlo simulations applied to a wide range of business problems, including the construction of short-term profit plans (otherwise referred to as “Cost-Volume-Profit” models, covered in Chapter 9 of the text). Monte Carlo refers to a widely used approach for solving complex problems using computer algorithms to simulate the variables in the model (e.g., a CVP model). Typically, an algorithm is developed to "model" the problem, and then the algorithm is run many times (from a few hundred up to millions) in order to develop a statistical data set for how the model behaves. Simple Example: Tossing a “Fair” Coin—Heads vs. Tails? For the simplest example, consider the basic coin toss. This is a process which has two possible outcomes (heads or tails), each with a 50% probability. In a million coin tosses, roughly half will be “heads” and half will be “tails.” A simple Monte Carlo simulation would support this conclusion. If you were to develop a spreadsheet with a random number generator resulting in 0 for “heads” and 1 for “tails,” then...
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...in Online Business Simulations Like the last entry, this entry is also derived from a paper I wrote for my master's work in the Technology, Innovation, and Education program at Harvard's Graduate School of Education. My advisor on this project was noted knowledge networks researcher Barry Fishman, visiting Harvard from the University of Michigan. Harvard Business School Publishing is about to launch the first two products in our new series of online business simulations and I wanted to investigate how we can ensure that this product line produces effective learning for our customers. This paper explores a framework for assessing effectiveness in online business simulations. Introduction Problem Statement and Paper Structure Harvard Business School Publishing (HBSP) has created a new product line of online business simulations. We know from faculty customer surveys that they are highly concerned themselves with how easy the simulations are to use, administer, and debrief, and that they are equally concerned that their demanding, and increasingly technically-literate, students rate the learning experience as engaging and dynamic. Hence these eLearning products are designed to be engaging, interactive, usable and teachable. We also know from faculty surveys that these types of learning tools are considered to be very effective. But what does the literature say about these kinds of claims? How can HBS Publishing know whether users of these simulations are truly...
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