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Business Valuation

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Introduction

CASE = AMAZON.COM IN YEAR 2000

Version: 4/12/10

This case analyzes Amazon’s growth strategies up to June 2000, and critiques Lehman Brothers’ credit analyst Ravi Suria’s report of that month. Suria report was one of the first to be publicly critical of the cash flow prospects Amazon and the dot com sector in general. He did this because he was a credit analyst and Amazon was rare among dot coms to have a lot of debt. The case provides a variety of learning opportunities: (1) an evaluation of a company’s strategy and performance from a credit analysis perspective; (2) an appreciation of the potential value of contrarian thinking in fundamental analysis; and (3) the analysis of the type of strategies and market conditions that fueled the dot com bubble.

Q1. 1.1

Regarding the long-term viability of Amazon's business per the case: What was Amazon’s original business model? (2 pts) I shall define a for-profit firm’s business model as the set of plans and strategies for the future that the firm has in place for earning at least normal profitability in the long run. Viewed through the lens of a statement of cash flows, a business model requires: Plans for financing; strategies for converting the cash raised by financing into investments of tangible and/or intangible assets; and strategies for generating abnormal profits from those assets through operations. Note that in their investing and operating activities, firms are less likely to be price takers. As a result, their future actions will be strategic rather than simply a plan—that is, they will be contingent on and shaped by the actions of competitors. In contrast, since firms are usually price takers in their financing activities, it is more reasonable to characterize their financing activities as plans, not strategies. Amazon’s original business model approximately spanned the period

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