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Carry Trade

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ECOn3104- Assignment 1
Carry Trade: Impacts Abroad

INTTRODUCTION

The carry trade phenomena refers to the process whereby an investor borrows money in a relatively low interest rate currency (funding currency) and effectively invests in a high interest rate currency by converting funds into the high interest currency and lending the amount to yield a higher return. We can show how the European Central Bank (ECB) to permanently increase the money supply will have a direct affect on the domestic Australian economy. This form of carry trade behavior will cause instability in the domestic exchange rate to which the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) can respond with an appropriate policy.

BODY:

* European Central Bank action

To understand the full extent of the carry trade, we must appreciate the operations of the ECB in managing the money supply and effectively stimulating necessary changes to proceed with a carry trade strategy. The ECB having direct control of the money supply enables them to increase the money supply through looser monetary policy, for example. This is seen graphically in Figure 1 of appendix A [krugman, Obstfeld & Melitz, 2012]. From the graph we can see the Australian money market is initially at equilibrium at point 1 and the foreign exchange market at 1’, equating to an exchange rate of E$/€1. Now with the ECB action we illustrate the increase in money supply by a shift to the left of the expected Euro interest rate. Foreign exchange market equilibrium is now at point 2’ with a new exchange rate at E$/€2. Hence the Euro depreciates against the Australian dollar. The expected dollar return of Euro deposits is now lower and hence less attractive in comparison with the more lucrative Australian dollar deposits [krugman, Obstfeld & Melitz, 2012].

This creates the situation whereby investors can borrow a financial

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