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Case 11 How Low Can It Go

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1. How should Johnathan describe the rationale of the devidend discount model (DDM) and demonstrate its use in calculating the justifiable price of common stock?
Mô hình DDM, hay mô hình chiết khấu dòng cổ tức là một phương pháp phổ biến để xác định giá trị cổ phiếu. Bởi vì, giá trị cổ phiếu thực tế là giá trị hiện tại của tất cả các dòng tiền cổ tức tương lai mà nó hy vọng được cung cấp. Cho dù nhà đầu tư bán được cổ phiếu với giá cao hơn giá mua để sinh lời thì cái thực sự mà họ bán cũng chính là quyền lãnh cổ tức trong tương lai. Còn những cổ phiếu mà không thể trả cổ tức trong tương lai thì nó cũng có giá trị khi bán công ty hay thanh lý tài sản. Chung quy, các khoản cổ tức xác định giá trị cổ phiếu.
Phương trình xác định giá cổ phiếu theo mô hình DDM là:
P0 = [D1/(1+r)^1] + [D2/(1+r)^2] + … + [Dn/(1+r)^n].
Trong đó:
P0 là giá cổ phiếu thường.
Dn là cổ tức mỗi cổ phiếu hy vọng nhận được cuối năm n. r: tỷ suất sinh lợi đòi hỏi.
Dn/(1+r)^n chính là giá trị hiện tại của cổ tức nhận cuối năm n.
Chúng ta quy đổi giá trị tương lai về hiện tại là bởi vì một đồng tiền hôm nay có giá trị hơn một đồng tiền nhận được vào ngày mai.
2. Being a researcher, Dwayne asked Johnathan a key question, “How did you estimate the grow rates used in applying the model?” Using data given in Tables 1 and 2 explain how Johnathan should respond.
Tỷ lệ tăng trưởng cổ tức sử dụng trong mô hình DDM được tính toán bằng công thức: g = ROEx(1-DPS/EPS)
Từ bảng số 1, chúng ta có thể dễ dàng tính được tỷ lệ DPS/EPS qua tất cả các năm không hề thay đổi và bằng 0.4. Từ đó, ta thấy g = 0.6xROE, và giá trị ROE có thể tính toán một cách dễ dàng từ các số liệu có được trong báo cáo tài chính của công ty.
3. What is the rationale of the required rate of return that Johnathan used and how did he estimate it?
Tỷ suất lợi nhuận đòi hỏi (hay kỳ vọng) được sử dụng đưa vào phương trình tính DDM là lợi nhuận thấp nhất mà nhà đầu tư có thể chấp nhận khi quyết định đầu tư vào cổ phiếu, sau khi cân nhắc rủi ro và lợi nhuận của các khoản đầu tư khác. Nó được tính bằng 2 cách:
- Lãi trái phiếu cộng phần bù rủi ro: r = rrisk-free + inflation rate + rpremium.
- Tỷ lệ cổ tức trên giá cộng tỷ lệ tăng trưởng cổ tức: r = (D1/P0) + g.
4. “What other variations of the DDM can one use and why?” asked Dwayne. What should Johnathan respond be?
Biến thể khác của DDM có thể sử dụng là: DDM cho trường hợp nắm giữ cố phiếu trong một thời gian hạn định, DDM tính giá cổ phiều khi cổ tức tăng trưởng không đều hay DDM cho cổ phiếu không chi trả cố tức,.. Nhưng mô hình này được sử dụng theo đúng các trường hợp mà nó mang tên.
5. “Why are you using devidends and not earnings per share, Johnathan?” asked Dwayne. What do you think Johnathan would have said?
EPS là tổng lượng tiền kiếm được bởi công ty, chia đều cho lượng cổ phiếu mà nó đã phát hành. Nếu như công ty có 100 cổ đông góp tiền để kinh doanh, từ số tiền đó làm ra lợi nhuận, thì không hẳn là 100 người này sẽ nhận lấy hết tất cả lợi nhuận. Có thể nói rằng, chỉ số EPS cao hay thấp chỉ nói lên công ty làm ăn có hiệu quả hay không mà thôi.
Trong khi đó, cổ tức đến từ chính sách chi trả của ban quản trị. Họ thường sử dụng một lượng xác định cổ tức mà mỗi cổ đông được nhận trong một quý hay một thời kì nhất định. Một công ty chi trả cổ tức trên cổ phiếu (DPS) thì nó phải trả cho dù có làm được lợi nhuận như mong muốn hay không.
Và vì là nhà đầu tư, chúng ta nên quan tâm tới khoản tiền được chia nhiều hơn là khoản tiền mà công ty kiếm được.
6. Dwayne wondered whether Pharmacopia’s preferred stock would be a better investment then its common stock, given that it was paying a devidends of $1.50 and trading at price $15. He asked Johnathan to explain to him the various features of preferred stock, how it differed from common stock and corporate bonds, and the method that could be used for estimating its value.
Cổ phiếu ưu đãi là một loại tài sản lưỡng tính, nó vừa có một số đặc tính của trái phiếu lại vừa có một số đặc tính của trái phiếu. Tương tự như trái phiếu, cổ phiếu ưu đãi có mệnh giá và mức cổ tức cố định được chi trả trước khi chi trả cho các cổ đông phổ thông khác. Tuy vậy, công ty cũng có thể quyết định không trả cổ tức ưu đãi mà không cần tuyên bố phá sản.
Cổ đông của cổ phiếu ưu đãi được nhận cổ tức theo định kì. Nếu khoản cổ tức này chi trả vô thời hạn thì cổ phiếu ưu đãi được xem là tài sản có thu nhập cố định vĩnh viễn, và có giá trị Vp được tính như sau:
Vp = Dp/rp
Trong đó: Dp là cổ tức của cổ phiếu ưu đãi còn rp là tỷ suất lợi nhuận đòi hỏi của cổ phiếu ưu đãi.

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