Premium Essay

Case Report of Swap Spreads, 2010

In:

Submitted By sunbowwing
Words 659
Pages 3
The article Swap Spreads:2010 talks about a financial abnormity that the 30-year swap spread has kept negative since late 2008 for a long time, and an arbitrage opportunity based on the bet that LIBOR would never fall below equivalent government bond interest rates.
Question1: Would you recommend that GIC do the bond/swap trade discussed in the case? Why or why not?
The arbitrage portfolio is to enter into a 30-year LIBOR swap to pay fixed and receive floating interest payment, to long a 30-year government bond, and to take rolling short positions in 3-month T-bills. In practice, the 3-month T-bills are replaced by taking a rolling short position of repos daily and entering into a 3-month OIS to receive floating and pay fixed (OIS rate) interest payment.
Thus, Payoff = (Government Bond Rate- Swap Rate)+(LIBOR-OIS rate)
Because at present the government bond rate is bigger than swap rate, the benefit of this leg can be locked since both are fixed rates. So, as long as LIBOR is bigger than OIS rate, entering the trade can make arbitrage profit.
In this case on Friday, August 13, 2010, using the data in the article, we get the payoff=(3.875%-3.445%)+(0.369%-0.165%)=0.63%
The positive payoff is a proof to recommend GIC do the bond/swap trade, but there also exists some risks.
The first risk that needs to be concern is the rolling position of repo. If the repo rate, which tracks the effective Fed funds rate, goes up, GIC needs to pay more and more money for the old debt before it can borrow new. And there would be increasing difficulty to finance in repo market, because as interest rate goes up, the value of government bonds goes down, and since the government bond is collateralized to avoid credit risk, the loan amount would be less and less. One way to avoid such risk is to take a long position of Eurodollar futures in order to hedge the increase in Feds fund

Similar Documents

Free Essay

Ios Discouting

...Dodd-Frank Act mandates central clearing for most swaps and the collateralization of uncleared swaps on dealer balance sheets. OIS discounting is the technically correct approach for pricing and valuing collateralized swaps, and it involves a thorough reconsideration of traditional pricing and valuation techniques. In this note we provide background and touch on some technical nuances involved. The traditional method of discounting using a Libor curve misstates the required collateral on a swap and its mark-to-market value. When collateral earns OIS, collateral and mark to market should be based on valuations that discount using a risk-free curve, such as the OIS curve. Investors need to rethink the relationship between forward rates and par rates. For the same par swap curve, if the curve is upward sloping and Libor-OIS spreads are positive, forward rates are lower under OIS discounting than they are under Libor discounting. The mark-to-market impact of a switch to OIS discounting from Libor discounting should materially affect only aged or off-market swaps, since the mark-to-market value of a par swap at initiation is zero under both discounting schemes. Possible market impact: − Impact on directional books: Given the rally in rates over the past few years, natural receivers of swaps should benefit and natural payers could lose in a switch to OIS discounting. This has implications for entities with large directional swap books, such as insurance companies and the...

Words: 6633 - Pages: 27

Free Essay

Credit Default Swaps

...Default Swaps With the financial crisis behind us, it is worth asking whether Credit Default Swaps (CDSs) were a positive development in our economic system. Many blamed the interconnections generated by primary and secondary CDS trading for the implosions that occurred in 2007, when the underlying assets on which the majority of CDSs were based - mortgage-backed securities - began to default. The media agreed, labeling CDSs with terms such as “weapons of mass financial destruction.” There are a number of aspects to CDSs, however, that skeptics and pundits overlooked. While history and intuition suggest important risks associated with CDSs that issuers, owners, and regulators must consider, there are a number of unexpected ways CDSs improve debt capital markets and our economy as a whole. On balance, these benefits shed optimistic perspectives on the merits of CDSs. If markets can learn from past mistakes, the advantages of CDSs render them indispensable financial instruments that contribute to better financing and information-gathering capability in our economy. Contrary to popular belief, the conceptual underpinnings of credit default swaps (CDSs) are surprisingly similar to those of traditional insurance policies. CDSs arose out of an ordinary transaction: a 1994 deal between J.P. Morgan, the European Bank of Reconstruction and Development (EBRD), and ExxonMobil. In return for an insurance-style premium to the EBRD, J.P. Morgan received full compensation in the case that...

Words: 1553 - Pages: 7

Premium Essay

Indian Forex Market

...Abstract If there was only one currency in the world, there would not have been any need for foreign exchange market, foreign exchange rates or foreign exchange. But in a world of many national currencies, the foreign exchange market plays the crucial role of providing the requisite machinery for making payments across borders, transferring funds and purchasing power from one currency to another, and determining the exchange rate. The fundamental changes in foreign exchange, or FX, market began to take form in 1970′s along with the increasing internationalization of financial transactions and the change of many economies into floating exchange rate system from fixed rate system. Over years, these changes have transformed the foreign exchange market into the world’s biggest and most dynamic market today. The daily turnover of global FX market currently amounts to many trillions of dollars. The objective behind this entire project is to get the basic understanding about an Indian foreign exchange market, Forex Instruments available in India, its functioning, Forexregulators& players. Project has emphasis more on numerical data gathered through different reliable sources to comparing and analysis the performance so far by Indian foreign market with other countries and their currencies which holds a dominant position in the global foreign exchange market. As in the rest of the world, in India too, foreign exchange market is the largest financial market in existence. The...

Words: 14130 - Pages: 57

Free Essay

The Effects of Quantitative Easing on Interest

...NBER WORKING PAPER SERIES THE EFFECTS OF QUANTITATIVE EASING ON INTEREST RATES: CHANNELS AND IMPLICATIONS FOR POLICY Arvind Krishnamurthy Annette Vissing-Jorgensen Working Paper 17555 http://www.nber.org/papers/w17555 NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH 1050 Massachusetts Avenue Cambridge, MA 02138 October 2011 We thank Jack Bao, Olivier Blanchard, Greg Duffee, Charlie Evans, Ester Faia, Simon Gilchrist, Robin Greenwood, Monika Piazzesi, David Romer, Thomas Philippon, Tsutomu Watanabe, Justin Wolfers, and participants at seminars and conferences at Brookings, Chicago Fed, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve, ECB, San Francisco Fed, Princeton University, Northwestern University, CEMFI, University of Pennsylvania (Wharton), Society for Economic Dynamics, NBER Summer Institute, the NAPA Conference on Financial Markets Research, and the European Finance Association for their suggestions. We thank Kevin Crotty and Juan Mendez for research assistance. This paper was prepared for the Brookings Papers on Economic Activity Fall 2011 issue. We have received an honorarium for the presentation of the paper at Brookings. The views expressed herein are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Bureau of Economic Research. At least one co-author has disclosed a financial relationship of potential relevance for this research. Further information is available online at http://www.nber.org/papers/w17555.ack NBER working papers...

Words: 18319 - Pages: 74

Free Essay

Upload Document

...Japan Navigator No.565 RATES Global Markets Research This is a direct translation of the original Japanese report issued on 11 April and reflects data as of that date. 14 April 2014 Research analysts 1: Near-term market environment and investment strategy JGB curve is unlikely to flatten materially further on US factors alone Next week the focus will be on the 5yr and 20yr JGB auctions. As there will be few other domestic factors, the market will remain susceptible to external factors. However, we do not think US factors alone can bring the risk-off driven flattening further. The key will be whether investors revise down their outlook for economies other than the US based on their view for unexpectedly weak US growth and hawkish Fed, in which case they should reduce risk positions in these markets. This week, risk-off momentum strengthened more than expected. 10yr UST rates have declined to levels signalling that a rate hike, as communicated by the Fed, would be premature, and are also approaching to levels that even reject QE3 tapering. (We note that 10yr rates traded around 2.50% when former Fed Chair Bernanke began talking about a QE exit.) These levels were tested in October 2013, but data do not look as poor as to suggest momentum has slowed to levels equivalent to that period. Even US shares, despite the current adjustment, are trading about 10% higher than in October 2013. We surmise that the issues that the US is currently facing are not cyclical, but rather...

Words: 12834 - Pages: 52

Free Essay

Banking

........................................8 Appendix...............................................................................................9 Executive Summary Budgetary viability and its recommendations for cash related and money related security in the euro area. The late crisis has incited a genuine disintegrating of open assets in for the most part industrialized countries. Governments in the moved countries left the retreat with the most bewildering setback and commitment to-Total national output extents since World War II. In the euro area, lack and commitment numbers surged. As showed by the European Commission, the euro zone general government insufficiency extended from 2.0% of Total national output in 2008 to 6.0% of GDP in 2010. The euro locale general government commitment, resulting to declining to around 66% of Total national output in 2007, is expected to augmentation to right around 88% of Total national output in the present year. For some individual euro locale and EU countries– furthermore for the US and Japan – the budgetary rot has...

Words: 3534 - Pages: 15

Premium Essay

Liverpool

...How Fair Value Measurement Changes Risk Management Behavior in the Insurance Industry JANUARY 2013 SPONSORED BY Financial Reporting Section Society of Actuaries PREPARED BY Bruce B. Rosner, FSA, MAAA Ernst & Young LLP Mark J. Freedman, FSA, MAAA Ernst & Young LLP The opinions expressed and conclusions reached by the authors are their own and do not represent any official position or opinion of the Society of Actuaries or its members. The Society of Actuaries makes no representation or warranty to the accuracy of the information. In addition, the discussion and examples presented in this paper are for educational purposes. They are not to be viewed as an authoritative statement by the Society of Actuaries or Ernst & Young LLP on the quality and/or appropriateness of an individual company’s practices or an indicator of “better” practice from one company relative to another. © 2013 Society of Actuaries, All Rights Reserved Acknowledgments We would like to acknowledge and thank a number of individuals who contributed to the success of this study: • Ronora Stryker and Jan Schuh from the Society of Actuaries for providing leadership and coordination The Project Oversight Group for guidance throughout this project: • Robert Baldwin • Mark Bergstrom • Jim Bridgeman • Joonghee Huh • Kathryn McCarthy (Chair) • James Norman • Jim Reiskytl • Doug Van Dam The companies that volunteered to be interviewed anonymously for this study Other members of the Ernst & Young team who...

Words: 15078 - Pages: 61

Premium Essay

Fixed Income Securities

...Fixed Income Securities Tools for Today’s Markets Second Edition BRUCE TUCKMAN John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Copyright © 2002 by Bruce Tuckman. All rights reserved. Published by John Wiley & Sons, Inc., Hoboken, New Jersey. Published simultaneously in Canada. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, scanning, or otherwise, except as permitted under Section 107 or 108 of the 1976 United States Copyright Act, without either the prior written permission of the Publisher, or authorization through payment of the appropriate per-copy fee to the Copyright Clearance Center, Inc., 222 Rosewood Drive, Danvers, MA 01923, 978-750-8400, fax 978-750-4470, or on the web at www.copyright.com. Requests to the Publisher for permission should be addressed to the Permissions Department, John Wiley & Sons, Inc., 111 River Street, Hoboken, NJ 07030, 201-748-6011, fax 201-748-6008, e-mail: permcoordinator@wiley.com. Limit of Liability/Disclaimer of Warranty: While the publisher and author have used their best efforts in preparing this book, they make no representations or warranties with respect to the accuracy or completeness of the contents of this book and specifically disclaim any implied warranties of merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose. No warranty may be created or extended by sales representatives or written sales materials. The advice and strategies...

Words: 146024 - Pages: 585

Premium Essay

Rbi Report

...financial markets in India. The SLI, so developed, is appropriately validated for its function as a metric for measuring systemic liquidity and its implications on the banks’ performance. Introduction “Unfortunately the word ‘liquidity’ has so many facets that is often counter-productive to use it without further and closer definition” - Charles Goodhart (Banque de France, 2008) The financial crisis of 2007-09 originated in the relatively small subprime lending market of the US, but engulfed the world financial markets very quickly and had devastating effect on the global economy. One of the important characteristics of this crisis was the existence of simultaneous liquidity problems across financial institutions and financial markets spread across many countries. In order to avoid such liquidity problems in future, central banks and international regulatory bodies have initiated a series of policy measures such as introduction of Basel III norms which stipulates more stringent norms...

Words: 4934 - Pages: 20

Free Essay

How to ‘Mark-to-Market’ When There Is No Market

...Original Article How to ‘mark-to-market’ when there is no market Received (in revised form): 12th December 2010 Samuel Francis is an attorney and certified public accountant experienced in corporate, litigation, audit and tax matters focusing his practice on financial services and investment management. He holds a BS in accounting from the City University of New York, Brooklyn College and a JD from Fordham University School of Law. He is the author of the 2009 award-winning article ‘Meet Two-Face: The Dualistic Rule 10b-5 and the Quandary of Offsetting Losses by Gains’. Fordham Law Review 77(6): 3045–3094. Correspondence: Samuel Francis, 321 Roselle Avenue, Cedarhurst, NY 11516, USA E-mail: samfrancis@optonline.net ABSTRACT At the center of the global financial crisis of 2007–2008 was the collapse of American International Group, brought on by extensive unhedged positions in derivatives, such as credit default swaps, and possibly exacerbated by mark-to-market accounting rules. Even though these rules generally produce the most realistic valuations of derivatives, a heated debate broke out over their application in a dislocated market. The foremost concern was that forcing financial institutions to mark down assets to their current market prices actually causes further declines. Regulators largely dismissed such concerns, but acknowledged that the existing standards could use additional clarification and modification. Many scholarly studies have since concurred that...

Words: 6287 - Pages: 26

Premium Essay

Aflac

...One) x ANNUAL REPORT PURSUANT TO SECTION 13 OR 15(d) OF THE SECURITIES EXCHANGE ACT OF 1934 For the fiscal year ended December 31, 2011 or ¨ TRANSITION REPORT PURSUANT TO SECTION 13 OR 15(d) OF THE SECURITIES EXCHANGE ACT OF 1934 For the transition period from to Commission File Number: 001-07434 Aflac Incorporated (Exact name of registrant as specified in its charter) Georgia (State or other jurisdiction of incorporation or organization) 58-1167100 (I.R.S. Employer Identification No.) 1932 Wynnton Road, Columbus, Georgia (Address of principal executive offices) 31999 (ZIP Code) Registrant’s telephone number, including area code: 706.323.3431 Securities registered pursuant to Section 12(b) of the Act: Title of each class Common Stock, $.10 Par Value Name of each exchange on which registered New York Stock Exchange Tokyo Stock Exchange Securities registered pursuant to Section 12(g) of the Act: Indicate by check mark if the registrant is a well-known seasoned issuer, as defined in Rule 405 of the Securities Act. Indicate by check mark if the registrant is not required to file reports pursuant to Section 13 or Section 15(d) of the Act. None  Yes ¨ Yes ¨ No  No Indicate by check mark whether the registrant (1) has filed all reports required to be filed by Section 13 or 15(d) of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 during the preceding 12 months (or for such shorter period that the registrant was required to file such reports), and (2) has...

Words: 87920 - Pages: 352

Premium Essay

Forex Transactions Project Indian Overseas Bank

...PROJECT REPORT A STUDY ON FOREX RISK MANAGEMENT IN INDIAN OVERSEAS BANK A PROJECT REPORT SUBMITTED IN PARTIAL FULFILLMENT OF THE REQUIREMENT FOR THE AWARD OF THE DEGREE OF MASTER OF BUSINESS ADMINISTRATION Submitted by MUTHUKUMAR, S. (Reg. No. 35080344) Submitted to SCHOOL OF MANAGEMENT, SRM UNIVERSITY Under the guidance of Mr. Manikandan Assistant Professor (Sr.G.) DEPARTMENT OF BUSINESS ADMINISTRATION SRM UNIVERSITY MAY – 2010                                                                                                                SCHOOL OF MANAGEMENT SRM UNIVERSITY KATTANKULUTHUR, KANCHIPURAM Dt., - 603203   BONAFIDE CERTIFICATE This is to certify that this project report entitled “A Study on Forex Risk Management in Indian Overseas Bank “ is a Bonafide work done by Mr. Muthukumar S for the partial fulfillment of Master of Business Administration degree, SRM University during the period of study in the academic year 2008-2010. Internal Guide Mr. MANIKANDAN Assistant Professor (Sr.G), School Of Management, SRM University. Head of the Department Dr.JAYSHREE SURESH Dean School Of Management SRM University Submitted for the University Examination held on EXTERNAL EXAMINER                                                                                                                              DECLARATION   I hereby declare that this project report entitled “A Study on Forex Risk Management in Indian Overseas Bank” submitted...

Words: 34013 - Pages: 137

Free Essay

Effects of Changes in Sovereign Credit Ratings on Investors’ Behavior

...behavior 27 3.2 Effect of business cycles on investors’ behavior surrounding rating events 33 Conclusion 46 Reference list 48 Appendix 52 Section I: Rating symbols & definitions 52 Section II: Tables 54 Section III: Figures 56 Section IV: Extended theory 57 Section V: Graphs 59 Section VI: Data 67 Section VII: Testing classical assumptions 71 Abstract Firstly, this paper investigates if investors react to changes in sovereign credit ratings. Hereby rating changes for European, Non-European and European Union countries are considered for the period: 1990-2011. Using both bond spreads and credit default swap (CDS) spreads as measures for investors’ behavior, analysis shows that changes in sovereign credit ratings significantly affect these spreads. Furthermore evidence is found that a rating downgrade of a sovereign country has a bigger impact on the spreads than a rating upgrade. Secondly, it is theoretically...

Words: 21349 - Pages: 86

Premium Essay

Squam Lake Report

...Table of Contents INTORDUCTION 2 A UNIFIED SYSTEMIC REGULATOR 3 CLOSING THE INFORMATION GAP 4 REGULATION OF RETIREMENT SAVINGS 4 CAPITAL REQUIREMENTS 6 EXECUTIVE COMPENSATION REFORM 9 RECAPITILIZATION THREW CONTINGENT CAPITAL 10 IMPROVING RESOLUTION OPTIONS 11 CREDIT DEFAULT SWAPS, CLEARINGHOUSES, AND EXCHANGES 12 PRIME BROKERS AND RUNS 13 FINAL WORD 14 REFRENCES 16 INTORDUCTION The Squam Lake Report is a brief volume that consists of the recommendations of a think tank of 15 leading financial economists in an attempt to provide direction on financial system reforms that might help anticipate and alleviate future Systemic Crisis. The report was written in 2008 in response to the crisis that was ongoing at that time. It is good to note that getting 15 scholars to agree on 37 recommendations is something worth of appraisal. However, one cannot but point that the report is somehow disjoint in its arrangement of chapters. I articulate that this slight disorder is because of the limitations of making 15 experts agree. This disjoint attribute has not prevented the report from being very constructive and direct in addressing very important policies and sensible issues relevant to reform. The paper has two central principles that the recommendation have been built on. The first is that policymakers have to consider how new regulations will affect not only individual firms, but also the financial setup as a whole. The second principal states that firms should...

Words: 4495 - Pages: 18

Premium Essay

Currency

...that the US Dollar is being quoted in terms of the Rupee. The US Dollar is the base currency and the Rupee is the terms currency. Exchange rates are constantly changing, which means that the value of one currency in terms of the other is constantly in flux. Changes in rates are expressed as strengthening or weakening of one currency vis-à-vis the other currency. Changes are also expressed as appreciation or depreciation of one currency in terms of the other currency. Whenever the base currency buys more of the terms currency, the base currency has strengthened / appreciated and the terms currency has weakened / depreciated. E.g. If US Dollar–Rupee moved from 43.00 to 43.25, the US Dollar has appreciated and the Rupee has depreciated. Swaps: A...

Words: 15256 - Pages: 62