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Cash Flows Hbr

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Submitted By nelsonzeepeda733
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Lineamientos de los Cash Flows: 3 Ejemplos.

John Stacey, un ingeniero vendedor de Aldhus Corporation, estaba preocupado, un atraso en un vuelo ocasiono que el perdiera la semana anterior una clase de contabilidad de su programa MBA en el cual esta inscrito como sugerencia del director de personal de Aldhus.
Aldhus es una empresa en expansión de periféricos de computadoras.

La clase que el perdió se trato de los lineamientos y técnicas de Cash Flows y el estaba seguro de que ese material seria abarcado en el examen de la siguiente semana.
Un compañero de clases envio via Fax a John un material que el profesor proporciono del tema, pero era prácticamente imposible comprenderlas sin haber ido a la clase.
En su desesperación John llamo a Lucille Barnes, quien era la asistente contralora en Aldhus para preguntarle si ella podía explicarle como realizar un cash flow y sus técnicas, para lo cual acordaron verse por la tarde.

LA REUNION,
A las 2 de la tarde John fue a la oficina de Lucille con sus apuntes y preguntas, luego de saludarse Lucille entrego a John 3 flujos de efectivo anuales de empresas de alta tecnología (Cuadros 1, 2 y 3) John se preocupo pues no entendia los flujos de efectivo y pensó que Lucille le pediría que le dijera lo que el interpretaba de los documentos, pero luego de habérselos proporcionados ella inicio la explicación.

Lucille: El flujo de efectivo es una parte muy útil de los 3 estados financieros principales que toda empresa debe preparar y en algunos casos el flujo dice mucho mas de lo que esta ocurriendo en el negocio de lo que podría indicar el balance o el estado de resultados.
Los flujos de caja que yo te proporcione son verdaderamente interesantes, déjame mostrate en forma rápida su estructura y su contenido y luego tomate un tiempo para estudiarlos y poder comprenderlos mejor pues te prepare algunas preguntas para que puedas enfocar y guiar tu estudio. Podemos reunirnos mañana y ver que fue lo que contestaste y las nuevas dudas que surgieron a partir de tu análisis, no creo que tengas problemas con tu examen de la próxima semana pues si ya comprendes el balance general y el estado de resultados, obtener y analizar el flujo de efectivo no será nada complicado.
John: Espero que tengas razón, el curso de contabilidad me gusta mucho y quiero hacer bien mi trabajo, razón por la cual me sentí abrumado y preocupado con esas notas que me enviaron por fax y que no comprendi.

Lucille: Olvidate de esas notas que recibiste por este momento y concéntrate en los datos y los ejemplos que te he proporcionado.
Primero debes fijarte que el flujo de efectivo esta dividido en 3 secciones y cada sección muestra las entradas y salidas de acuerdo al tipo de actividad.
Las actividades operativas muestra las entradas y salidas relacionadas a las operaciones fundamentales de la compañía, por ejemplo se incluyen aca las entradas de dinero por ventas o servicios y las salidas de dinero por compras de inventarios, pagos de cuentas de impuestos y rentas.
Las actividades de inversión muestran las compras de activos fijos, aca es donde se ve si la empresa vendio un edificio, compro equipo, le presto a una subsidiaria.

Las actividades de financiación muestran el incremento o decremento del financiamiento de la firma por ejemplo la recompra de acciones, el pago de dividendos, amortización de prestamos, pero no se incluyen los pagos de intereses pues estos son incluidos en la sección de operación.

John: eso ultimo me parece extraño, los intereses provienen de los prestamos …. ¿ por que no son incluidos en esta sección ? es decir ¿Los intereses son a los prestamos como los dividendos al patrimonio?

Lucille: Actualmente en otros países como el reino unido, los intereses se incluyen en la sección de financiación, pero en USA el estándar indica de que deben colocarse en la sección de operación aca es donde debes tener cuidado por ejemplo al comparar una empresa petrolera de UK con una de USA.

John: Eso me parece interesante, Como puedo utilizar cada sección de este estado financiero??

Lucille: La sección de actividades operativas es el motor de la compañía, cuando el motor funciona en forma eficiente, el flujo que provee cubre todas las necesidades de operación.
En una compañía saludable y en crecimiento esperaríamos crecimiento en las cuentas de capital de trabajo como inventarios y las cuentas por cobrar (usos) asi como en las cuentas por pagar (fuentes). Obviamente puede existir cierta variación en el capital de trabajo al comparar periodo a periodo, pero debe mantenerse en inventarios promedio, cuentas por cobrar y pagar promedio también.
Las cuentas por pagar usualmente aumentan en las compañías en crecimiento.
Ademas el flujo de operación provee el dinero para las actividades de inversión, repagos de deudas y pagos de dividendos.
Existen excepción por ejemplo para compañías que inician que pueden obtener flujos de actividades de operación negativos porque aun no han alcanzado la velocidad adecuada de su motor.
Otro punto a considerar son las industrias cíclicas, las cuales en algún momento pueden mostrar que su flujo de efectivo por actividades de operación es negativo, pero esto no debe verse como un desastre, sin embargo en promedio siempre se espera sea positivo.

Las actividades de inversión son una historia diferente, mientras esperamos que el cash flow por actividades de inversión sea positivo, igual esperamos que una empresa saludable este invirtiendo en planta, equipo y reemplazando activos que le permitan crecer y expandirse.
Aunque las compañías frecuentemente venden aquellos activos que no se utilizaran, y lo normal es esperar que se compre mas de lo que se venda por lo cual esperamos que esta sección sea negativa. La excepción ocurre si la firma se deshace de una subsidiaria o de una línea de negocio.

El flujo de efectivo por actividades de financiación podría fácilmente ser positivo o negativo en una empresa saludable.
Si las necesidades de efectivo para la inversión exceden al flujo de efectivo generado por operación requerirán un financiamiento ya sea via deuda o patrimonio obteniéndose un flujo de financiación positivo.
Por otro lado, si el flujo generado por actividades de operación excede las necesidades de inversión la firma tendrá exceso para pagar deudas o mas divididendos produciendo un flujo negativo.
John: Estoy empezando a ver lo útiles que son los flujos de efectivo.
En que punto debes enfocar tu revisión y análisis?

Lucille: una forma de enfocar el análisis de flujos de efectivo es iniciar por las actividades de operación, la pregunta es “El flujo por actividades de operación es mayor, menor o igual a cero?”
Y también es importante ver la tendencia “Esta creciendo? O esta disminuyendo?”

John: Mientras hablabas revise las secciones de operación de los primeros 2 flujos de efectivo que me proporcionaste (Cuadros 1 y 2), parecen muy diferentes, en el primero la depreciación parece proporcionar efectivo, pero en el segundo no aparece.

Lucile: Olvide mencionar que hay 2 formas de presentar el flujo operativo. Algunas veces es presentado utilizando el método indirecto como en el primer documento que te proporcione (cuadro 1), utilizando ese método, los ingresos netos se ajustan para todas las cuentas que no representan efectivo una de las cuales es la depreciación.
La depreciación nunca es una fuente de efectivo, pero es utilizada para calcular el ingreso neto por lo cual en el flujo de efectivo se toma en cuenta sumándola.
Cuando se usa el método directo luce como un resumen de las cuentas de operación (cuadro 2).

John: ¿Cuál de los 2 metodos es mejor?

Lucile: Yo creo que el mejor es el método directo pues es mas fácil de analizar pero son pocas las compañías las que lo utilizan.
La mayoría usan el método indirecto y el motivo es que si usan el método directo se requiere de una reconciliación de los ingresos por actividades de operacion (cuadro 2) de modo que la mayoría de las empresas simplifican esa reconciliación usando el método indirecto.
Pero regresemos a nuestro enfoque de como analizo yo los flujos de efectivo.
Asumiendo que el flujo por actividades de operación es mayor que cero , el siguiente reto es decidir si son adecuados o importantes usar ese flujo en los gastos de rutina. una vez más, nuestras expectativas se ven marcadas por el conocimiento de la empresa y su situación.
Asi como no esperamos que una empresa que inicia tenga flujos positivos en sus actividades de operación, tampoco esperamos que una empresa en fase de cremiento sea capaz de cubrir todas sus necesidades de financiación con este flujo.
Sin embargo en una empresa madura, esperamos que este flujo de operación sea capaz de cubrir a toda la empresa. Inclusive podríamos esperar que cubrar aquellas necesidades de inversión que surgen para hacer cambios en el activo fijo.
Asi como que cubra el dinero para pagar los dividendos. es difícil saber con precisión cuánto dinero se necesita para mantener activo fijo de la empresa, pues el estado de flujos de efectivo no se separa en el flujo de inversión el defectivo para el reemplazo y renovación del efectivo para la expansión y el crecimiento. sin embargo, el valor de la depreciacion anual podría darnos en forma somera el monto de los activos fijos que deben ser reemplazados cada año.
En períodos en que los precios están al alza, es común esperar que el monto de las actividades de inversión relacionados con la compra de activos fijos sea superior a la depreciación anual.
Si el flujo de efectivo es positivo y cubre los gastos de capital y dividendos, busco otras necesidades tales como adquisiciones, recompra de acciones o reembolso de la deuda.

si hay déficit de efectivo, hay que investigar cómo se financian, ¿Es por la emisión de acciones? por los préstamos? mediante la venta de empresas o activos? En cada caso, se considera si la empresa es capaz de continuar trabajando de esta forma y por cuánto tiempo.
¿La fuente de financiamiento sigue estando disponible, o están a punto de llegar al límite? Si se sigue utilizando esta fuente se daña a la empresa de alguna manera?

John: Siempre realizas todo este análisis?
Lucille: No, pero si no eres un poco minucioso te puedes perder una parte importante de la historia.
En cada estado de flujo de efectivo estas evaluando evidencias de piezas que componen la fotografía total, y seria raro encontrar una empresa en donde toda la evidencia sea positiva o bien toda negativa.
Para realizar una evalucacion balanceada debes buscar las buenas y malas noticias en cada una de las secciones del flujo de efectivo.
Para emitir una conclusión debes conocer la importancia relativa de cada pieza y asi como en los casos legales, tu conclusión debe estar basada en el peso de los argumentos.
La Tarea:
¿cuáles fueron las principales fuentes de efectivo de la empresa? sus usos más importantes de efectivo fueron?

¿era el efectivo de las operaciones mayor o menor que la utilidad neta?

¿El flujo de operaciones generado por la empresa fue suficiente para cubrir los pagos de todo el capex?

¿Cubrio el cash de operaciones el capex y los dividendos o alguno de estos?

Si la respuesta es positiva ¿Cómo invirtió la empresa el exceso de efectivo?

Si la respuesta es negativa ¿Cuáles fueron las fuentes de efectivo para pagar el capex y/o los dividendos?

¿Qué otros incidentes mayores afectaron el flujo de efectivo?

Cuál era la tendencia de: 1. Ingresos netos 2. Flujo de efectivo de operaciones 3. Capex 4. Dividendos 5. Deudas 6. Capital de trabajo

Basado en evidencia solamente del flujo de efectivo cual es su evaluación de la situación financiera de esta empresa y porque.

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...FP/101         Week 2         1. How does a personal cash flow statement help you organize your finances?         2. What was the most interesting thing you learned about completing this worksheet?         3. Did this worksheet provide you with any ideas about how you may want to change your budget (how much you are spending, saving, or reducing your debt)?         The cash flow statement can help me organize my finances by being able to see how much money I am spending, and what I am spending it on. The statement breaks down everything from house related payments all the way to leisure activities like video games and movies. Being able to see what I spent my money on will allow me to make changes for the better or, help me to save money by seeing what I could go without and save that money. There have been plenty of times where I go out and spend more than I planned on spending whether it is on food or at the movies. I can use this chart to set up a budget for these sort of activities and not take any more money than what I budget myself spending.         The most interesting thing I learned about this worksheet is, it is not just another assignment, but it can be used in everyday life. I like the idea of going to my computer and checking my monthly chart to see how much I have spent that month. Or I could use the chart to see how much money I have left to spend in a month. The cash flow chart is something that can be used in multiple ways to fit different needs...

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