...Shifting Paradigms: From Newton to Chaos In the article “Shifting Paradigms: From Newton to Chaos”, Toby Tetenbaum argues that Chaos theory, a term used to describe nonlinear complex systems and organizations, can be used to study change in organizations. Unlike Newtonian scientists who believed that “…relationships between cause and effect are simple, clear and linear.” , Tetenbaum argues that due to the information era organizations are more complex with employees working anytime from dispersed locations. The increasing speed of communications and the demand for knowledge sharing has also contributed to more of a self managed model. Consequently, Tetenbaum says that the 21st century manager’s role must consist of 5 critical skills. He/she must be able to: 1) Manage the Transition, 2) Build Resilience, 3) Destabilize the System, 4) Manage Order and Disorder, the Present and the Future, and 5) Create and maintain a Learning Organization. In the first role, “Managing the Transition”, Tetenbaum explains that organizations are moving from the industrial to the information era. Both employees and managers have to change their attitudes towards how work is done and how problems are solved. In the industrial era workers take orders from upper management and follow instructions to ensure the expected results. Their knowledge and practices are based on proven skills and experiences previously tested. Transitioning to an information era would mean letting go of what is...
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...CHAOS THEORY It is a field of study in mathematics, with applications in several disciplines including, and philosophy. Chaos theory studies the behavior of dynamical systems that are highly sensitive to initial conditions—a response popularly referred to as the butterfly effect. Chaotic behavior can be observed in many natural systems, such as weather and climate. This behavior can be studied through analysis of a chaotic mathematical model, or through analytical techniques such as recurrence plots and Poincare maps. This latter idea is known as sensitive dependence on initial conditions , a circumstance discovered by Edward Lorenz (who is generally credited as the first experimenter in the area of chaos) in the early 1960s. DEFINITION: It is the study of non linear dynamics, in which seemingly random events are actually predictable from simple deterministic equation. Chaos theory concerns deterministic systems whose behavior can in principle be predicted. Chaotic systems are predictable for a while and then appear to become random. The amount of time for which the behavior of a chaotic system can be effectively predicted depends on three things: * How much uncertainty we are willing to tolerate in the forecast? * How accurately we are able to measure its current state? * Which time scale is depending on the dynamics of the system? The two main components of chaos theory are the ideas that systems - no matter how complex they may be - rely upon an underlying...
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...Before answering this question I think it is important to start with the chaos theory and its principles. Chaos is a science of surprises, nonlinear systems and unpredictability. Chaos teaches people to expect unexpected, to deal with impossible. In everyday language chaos means dynamic and random behavior. From the science perspective, chaos theory deals with nonlinear things that are effectively impossible to predict or control, like turbulence, weather, the stock market, our brain states, and so on. Chaos theory relies on basic principles: butterfly effect, unpredictability, order and disorder, mixing feedback and fractals. The answer on the question about shareholder’s focus on a single issue and its effect on a corporation lies deep in the roots of butterfly effect theory. Butterfly effect theory is often associated with Edward Lorenz, mathematician and meteorologist, who has proved from the theoretical example that formation of hurricane in one place depends on whether or not a distant butterfly had flapped its wings several weeks earlier. Thus, a butterfly that flaps its wings in Hong Kong can result in tornado in Texas. Small change at one place in nonlinear systems can result in large differences in a later state. The same scenario is related to a shareholder who can make a big change in the company just by focusing on a single issue. The answer is based on a scientific theory that a single occurrence, no matter how small, can change the course of the universe...
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...Chaos: A short Introduction Scientists have been coming up with theories for thousands of years now. The theories have been tried and tested have been altered and improved to better understand why certain things happen in and out of this world. Many of these theories are still in the works and our not fully comprehendible and scientists have been working hard to achieve breakthroughs in these areas. One such theory has achieved several breakthroughs within the past couple of years and that theory is called Chaos Theory. This theory first started out mainly as a sort of fictitious happening only read about in novels until lately when scientist have discovered that this theory may have more effect than previously deliberated. In Leonard Smith’s book, “Chaos: A Very Short Introduction” he gives an understandable account of what the Chaos Theory is and how it affects the environment around us. Leonard explains to the reader how the Chaos Theory works through mathematical diagrams, models, and simulations to show the possible results the theory could claim on the environment around us. The book is for the most part easy to understand and gives the reader a sufficient understanding even if the reader does not have a background in mathematics or science. Chaos theory first came about when scientist decided they wanted to be able to predict the future more accurately of certain events happening. The theory takes a look at the initial beginning of a system and tries to determine...
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...App. Math. and Comp. Intel., Vol. 2 (1) (2013) 137–148 http://amci.unimap.edu.my © 2013 Institute of Engineering Mathematics, UniMAP Modeling of prediction system: An application of the nearest neighbor approach to chaotic data N. Z. A. Hamida,b,*and M. S. M. Nooranib a Department of Mathematics, Faculty of Science and Mathematics, Universiti Pendidikan Sultan Idris 35900, Tanjung Malim, Perak, Malaysia b School of Mathematical Sciences, Faculty of Science and Technology, Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia, 43600, Bangi, Selangor, Malaysia Received: 20 February 2012; Revised: 12 February 2013, Accepted: 25 February 2013 Abstract: This paper is about modeling of chaotic systems via nearest neighbor approach. This approach holds the principle that future data can be predicted using past data information. Here, all the past data known as neighbors. There are various prediction models that have been developed through this approach. In this paper, the zeroth-order approximation method (ZOAM) and improved ZOAM, namely the k-nearest neighbor approximation (KNNAM) and weighted distance approximation method (WDAM) were used. In ZOAM, only one nearest neighbor is used to predict future data while KNNAM uses more than one nearest neighbor and WDAM add the distance element for prediction process. These models were used to predict one of the chaotic data, Logistic map. 3008 Logistic map data has been produced, in which the first 3000 data were used to train the model while...
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...APPENDIX A: ASSIGNMENT COVER SHEET (SAMPLE) ASSIGNMENT COVER SHEET | Surname | NGUBO | First Name/s | JABULISILE HAPPINESS | Student Number | 501854 | Subject | BUSINESS MANAGEMENT 1A | Assignment Number | 01 | Tutor’s Name | THEMBA MKHIZE | Examination Venue | DURBAN | Date Submitted | 02 APRIL 2015 | Submission (√) | First Submission | √ | .resubmission | | Postal Address | 17 Queen street | | Pietermaritzburg | | | | | | | 3201 | E-Mail | Jabulisile.ngubo@durban.gov.za | Contact Numbers | 031 – 322 4600 (Work) | | N/A (Home) | | 071 386 1358 (Cell) | Course/Intake | BCom ITM Year One Jan 2015 | Declaration: I hereby declare that the assignment submitted is an original piece of work produced by myself. | Signature: J.H Ngubo | Date: 02-04-2015 | TABLE OF CONTENTS: Section A Question 1 1.1 – 1.10 (Multiple choice) ------------------------------------------------------ page 2 Question 2 2.1 – 2.10 (True or False) --------------------------------------------------------- page 3 Section B Question 4 4.1- 4.2 (Discuss and Identify) -------------------------------------------------- page 4-6 Question 5 5.1-5.2 (Discuss and Identify) --------------------------------------------------...
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...so greatly, that there was hardly any correlation between the two predictions. Lorenz and other meteorologists began to refer to this phenomenon as the butterfly effect, and it soon gained recognition in the scientific community as being the first theory to show just how unpredictable and constantly changing our world was. This new theory was based on the idea that by slightly changing a detail of a scenario, the outcome would be completely changed from any previous or expected possibilities....
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...project. The objective of this project is to build chaotic circuit and analyze chaotic behavior in the circuit. RLD is used as the chaotic circuit in the experiment. The experiment is carried out basically successful, important results and conclusions has acquired from the experiment and looking up the papers of predecessors online. In addition, PSpice is used to get simulation results to compare with experimental results. To analyze the chaotic behavior, the relative knowledge such as resonance frequency, diode capacitance, bifurcation phenomenon and Fiegenbaum constant are included. This report will show the method, results, analysis and conclusion in details. Contents 1 Introduction 1.1 Background information . . . . . . . . 1.2 Theory . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.2.1 RLD circuit . . . . . . . . . . . 1.2.2 Resonance frequency . . . . . . 1.2.3 Diode Capacitance . . . . . . . 1.2.4 Chaotic behavior: bifurcation, harmonic . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.3 Objective . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.4 Structure . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7 7 8 8 9 9 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . period . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . doubling and . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . sub. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10 . 10 . 11 12 12 13 13...
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...STRATEGIC THEORY FOR THE 21st CENTURY: THE LITTLE BOOK ON BIG STRATEGY Harry R. Yarger February 2006 This publication is a work of the United States Government as defined in Title 17, United States Code, section 101. As such, it is in the public domain, and under the provisions of Title 17, United States Code, Section 105, it may not be copyrighted. Visit our website for other free publication downloads http://www.StrategicStudiesInstitute.army.mil/ To rate this publication click here. ***** The views expressed in this report are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of the Department of the Army, the Department of Defense, or the U.S. Government. This report is cleared for public release; distribution is unlimited. ***** Comments pertaining to this report are invited and should be forwarded to: Director, Strategic Studies Institute, U.S. Army War College, 122 Forbes Ave, Carlisle, PA 17013-5244. ***** All Strategic Studies Institute (SSI) monographs are available on the SSI homepage for electronic dissemination. Hard copies of this report also may be ordered from our homepage. SSI’s homepage address is: www.StrategicStudies Institute.army.mil. ***** The Strategic Studies Institute publishes a monthly e-mail newsletter to update the national security community on the research of our analysts, recent and forthcoming publications, and upcoming conferences sponsored by the Institute. Each newsletter also provides a strategic commentary...
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...Short Introduction to Trading Theory (S.A.Bartlett) Markets possess both complex dynamic and quantum system qualities. Complex as current dynamics are fully determined by current conditions, with every resulting action or cause producing a reaction or effect, forming the base of subsequent future actions. Quantum as states of equilibrium and disequilibrium occurs between different price bands. With the inherit behaviour of dynamic systems highly sensitive to initial conditions, behaviour of price trends remain a deterministic non-periodic flow, with the perceived construction of trends a by-product of the intra and inter day assorted occurrences exhibiting force upon one another. As the occurrence of these deterministic non-periodic flows exhibit both the reflexivity and factual states of the market; reflexive in its self perpetuating/self defeating distribution, fractural in its display of similar dimensional structure, any qualitative trajectory remains highly dependant on the initial conditions. Given the complex dynamical structure of markets, where the initial conditions remain unstable, bifurcating in accordance with the proceeding reaction or effect, the production of long term (fortnightly, monthly quarterly etc) probability distributions remains highly inaccurate. However, as the use of the mathematical models measuring the structural stability, underlying dynamics and non-linear movement of the basin of attraction, the calculation of the probable short...
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...astronomer Michele Henon.[2] [5] [pic] Fig. 1 Henon map with parameters a = 1.4 and b = 0.3. The chaotic behavior of the attractor has many physical applications. Such as: ▪ Application to the transverse betatron motion in cyclic accelerators ▪ Application of the Henon Chaotic Model on to design of low density parity ▪ Application to Financial Markets ▪ Application on area-conserving ▪ Deterministic chaos in financial time series by recurrence plots ▪ Application to the motion of stars Application in air bubble formation Introduction Below the explanation of how the Henon attractor effects a real life application is presented, which is based on the bubble formation. This experiment took place in order to detect the chaotic dynamics that give the bubble shape and motion. By using the methodology that is described below, observations using topological characterization, a chaotic region where some reconstructed attractors resemble Henon-like attractors, which visualize a possible route to chaos in bubbling dynamics. The formation of air bubbles was studied submerging nozzle in a water/glycerol solution inside a...
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...Film Analysis 1 Fine Arts Film- Spring 2014 Order and Chaos in Jurassic Park First time watching Jurassic Park the theme that stands out most is Man vs. Nature but this is not the best fit. The true theme is almost shown straight forward during the helicopter ride to the island when Dr. Malcolm states, “John doesn't subscribe to Chaos, particularly what it has to say about his little science project!” (Koepp 19) pitting him against Hammond. These two are the most obvious players in the chaos game, but Dr. Sattler against Dr. Grant and the Tyrannosaurus Rex (T. rex) against the Velociraptors (Raptors) are also players. The other characters do not have as defined roles but still play into the game. They all have a common theme: Chaos vs. Order. Most of the main characters arrive on the island on the same helicopter. The first view inside shows Hammond, Dr. Sattler, and Dr. Grant on the right with Dr. Malcolm and Gennaro on the left. This scene shows who is on which side of the line, but Hammond’s and Dr. Malcolm’s conflict with each other is most prevalent. Hammond is wearing all white while Dr. Malcolm is, “dressed all in black” (Koepp 18) adding visual representation of the polar difference between chaos and order. Chaos and order is the root topic during the Velociraptor birth and lunch scene. Dr. Sattler and Dr. Grant debate which will win in the end but Dr. Malcolm and Hammond have already made up their minds. Chaos is thrown its first blow when Dr. Malcolm is hurt by the...
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...Every action a person takes in his or her life will certainly have a cause and an effect which can be positive or negative in addition to having an intense impact or a negligible one. According to Oxford English Dictionary the butterfly effect is the phenomenon whereby a very insignificant change in a complex system can significantly alter an anticipated course of events. In his fantasy style short story, “A Sound of Thunder”, Ray Bradbury rise to the well-known theory, which was later coined by American meteorologist Edward N. Lorenz in 1961, known as the “Butterfly Effect” (Lorenz). Bradbury demonstrates the butterfly effect by illustrating to the reader how a single event or action in the present can have a significant impact on the future. Through his use of technology, in this case a time machine, to create a theme that centralizes around the butterfly effect. In addition through the protagonist’s, Eckels, persona Bradbury illustrates the butterfly effect. Bradbury creates Bradbury...
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...Chris explains the potential of these stones to jean and is granted permission to begin research on their development. The base begins to incorporate them into their equipment and it begins to flourish exponentially. After hearing about the death of Steven and understanding the dangers these people of the forest may cause Jean makes a deal with the Brazilian government to stop all expansion in the forest in exchange for armed guards around the facility at all times. The entire felicity begins experimenting with the materials Christopher brought back. The batteries the solar fields were leading to are then converted to store the energy the stones. It took only a moment for Jean to see that this work Christopher was doing needed to be shipped out to the United States and the rest of the world. The camera is back on the outside of Jeans office, this time she’s overjoyed. She gets off the line with the President of the United States, after being granted extra materials and supplies to get the new battery project moving. The scene opens at the helipad as large supply choppers and both unloading supplies and loading units of batteries that are being distributed worldwide. Jump cut to the helicopters unloading batteries of all sizes into shipping containers at port of Long Beach, those are then loaded onto trucks that will go around the United States and freighters carted to ship around the world. All the staff people in the facility are celebrating around a large television screen...
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...In the article “Shifting Paradigms: From Newton to Chaos”, Toby Tetenbaum argues that Chaos theory, a term used to describe nonlinear complex systems and organizations, can be used to study change in organizations. Unlike Newtonian scientists who believed that “…relationships between cause and effect are simple, clear and linear.” , Tetenbaum argues that due to the information era organizations are more complex with employees working anytime from dispersed locations. The increasing speed of communications and the demand for knowledge sharing has also contributed to more of a self managed model. Consequently, Tetenbaum says that the 21st century manager’s role must consist of 5 critical skills. He/she must be able to: 1) Manage the Transition, 2) Build Resilience, 3) Destabilize the System, 4) Manage Order and Disorder, the Present and the Future, and 5) Create and maintain a Learning Organization. In the first role, “Managing the Transition”, Tetenbaum explains that organizations are moving from the industrial to the information era. Both employees and managers have to change their attitudes towards how work is done and how problems are solved. In the industrial era workers take orders from upper management and follow instructions to ensure the expected results. Their knowledge and practices are based on proven skills and experiences previously tested. Transitioning to an information era would mean letting go of what is familiar and moving away from what workers and...
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