...THE B L A C K SWAN The HIGHLY I mpact IM of the PROBABLE Nassim Nicholas Taleb U.S.A. $26.95 Canada $34.95 is a highly improbable event with three principal characteristics: It is unpre dictable; it carries a massive impact; and, after the fact, we concoct an explanation that makes it appear less random, and more predictable, than it was. The astonishing success of Google was a black swan; so was 9 / 1 1 . For Nassim Nicholas Taleb, black swans underlie almost everything about our world, from the rise of religions to events in our own personal lives. A BLACK SWAN Why do we not acknowledge the phenomenon of black swans until after they occur? Part of the answer, according to Taleb, is that humans are hardwired to learn specifics when they should be focused on generalities. We concentrate on things we already know and time and time again fail to take into consideration what we don't know. We are, therefore, unable to truly estimate oppor tunities, too vulnerable to the impulse to simplify, narrate, and categorize, and not open enough to rewarding those who can imagine the "impossible." For years, Taleb has studied how we fool our selves into thinking we know more than we actually do. We restrict our thinking to the irrelevant and inconsequential, while large events continue to surprise us and shape our world. Now, in this reve latory book, Taleb explains everything we know about what we don't know. He offers...
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...Edited by Kristen Walker Painemilla, Anthony B. Rylands, Alisa Woofter and Cassie Hughes Edited by Kristen Walker Painemilla, Anthony B. Rylands, Alisa Woofter and Cassie Hughes Conservation International 2011 Crystal Drive, Suite 500 Arlington, VA 22202 USA Tel: +1 703-341-2400 www.conservation.org Editors : Kristen Walker Painemilla, Anthony B. Rylands, Alisa Woofter and Cassie Hughes Cover design Paula K. Rylands, Conservation International : Layout: Kim Meek, Washington, DC Maps [except where noted otherwise] Kellee Koenig, Conservation International : Conservation International is a private, non-profit organization exempt from federal income tax under section 501 c (3) of the Internal Revenue Code. ISBN 978-1-934151-39-6 © 2010 by Conservation International All rights reserved. The designations of geographical entities in this publication, and the presentation of the material, do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of Conservation International or its supporting organizations concerning the legal status of any country, territory, or area, or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries. Any opinions expressed in this publication are those of the writers, and do not necessarily reflect those of Conservation International (CI). Suggested citation: Walker Painemilla, K., Rylands, A. B., Woofter, A. and Hughes, C. (eds.). 2010. Indigenous Peoples and Conservation: From Rights to Resource Management. Conservation...
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...ADRA AC&H AC&H H&S ADRA HA HA H&S OI REC NAT NAT OI VOC VOC SGO&H REC SGO&H pathfinder honor book 2014 revision general conference youth ministries department -1- ADRA AC&H H&S NAT HA OI SGO&H REC VOC pathfinder honor book 2014 revision general conference youth ministries department -3- General Conference Youth Ministries Department Director: Gilbert Cangy General Conference Associate Youth Director/Pathfinder World Director: Jonatan Tejel General Conference Honors Committee: Jonatan Tejel, Chairman Vanessa Correa, Secretary Gennady Kasap: ESD Youth Director Busi Khumalo: SID Youth Director Mark O’Ffill: NAD representative John Sommerfeld: SPD representative Paul Tompkins: TED Youth Director Jobbie Yabut: SSD Youth Director Udolcy Zukowski: SAD Pathfinder Director Copyright © 2014 by the Youth Ministries Department of the Seventh-day Adventist® Church All rights reserved. Published 2014 First edition published 1998. Second edition 2011. Third edition 2014 Rights for publishing this book outside the U.S.A. or in non-English languages are administered by the Youth Ministries Department of the Seventh-day Adventist® Church. For additional information, please visit our website, www.gcyouthministries. org, email youthinfo@gc.adventist.org, or write to Youth Ministries Department, General Conference of Seventh-day Adventists® Church, 12501 Old Columbia Pike, Silver Spring, MD 20904, U.S.A. Cover and inside design by Jonatan Tejel Printed in the United...
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...builds writing, reading, and critical thinking, and combines comprehensive grammar review with an introduction to paragraph writing and composition. Beginning with the sentence and its essential elements, this book addresses each concept with clear, concise, and effective examples that are immediately reinforced with exercises and opportunities to demonstrate learning. Each chapter allows students to demonstrate mastery of the principles of quality writing. With its incremental approach, this book can address a range of writing levels and abilities, helping each student prepare for the next writing or university course. Constant reinforcement is provided through examples and exercises, and the text involves students in the learning process through reading, problem solving, practicing, listening, and experiencing the writing process. Each chapter also has integrated examples that unify the discussion and form a common, easy-tounderstand basis for discussion and exploration. This will put students at ease and allow for greater absorption of the material. Tips for effective writing are included in every chapter, as well. Thought-provoking scenarios provide challenges and opportunities for collaboration and interaction. These exercises are especially helpful for working with groups of students. Clear exercises teach sentence and paragraph writing skills that lead to common English composition and research essays....
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...- more 1111111 500,000 copi c« sold - 101 GREAT ANSWERS -to the- 101 GREAT ANSWERS TO THE TOUGHEST INTERVIEW QUESTIONS SIXTH EDITION Ron Fry Course Technology PTR A part of Cengage Learning [pic] Australia, Brazil, Japan, Korea, Mexico, Singapore, Spain, United Kingdom, United States [pic] 101 Great Answers to the Toughest Interview Questions, Sixth Edition Ron Fry Publisher and General Manager, Course Technology PTR: Stacy L. Hiquet Associate Director of Marketing: Sarah Panella Manager of Editorial Services: Heather Talbot Marketing Manager: Mark Hughes Acquisitions Editor: Mitzi Koontz Project Editor: Jenny Davidson PTR Editorial Services Coordinator: Jen Blaney Interior Layout Tech: Bill Hartman Cover Designer: Luke Fletcher Indexer: Larry Sweazy Proofreader: Kate Shoup Course Technology, a part of Cengage Learning 20 Channel Center Street Boston, MA 02210 USA © 2009 Course Technology, a part of Cengage Learning. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. No part of this work covered by the copyright herein may be reproduced, transmitted, stored, or used in any form or by any means graphic, electronic, or mechanical, including but not limited to photocopying, recording, scanning, digitizing, taping, Web distribution...
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...your books, water your plants, or sharpen your pencils for the fifth time. If this situation sounds familiar, you may find it reassuring to know that many professionals undergo these same strange compulsions before they begin writing. Jean Kerr, author of Please Don’t Eat the Daisies, admits that she often finds herself in the kitchen reading soup-can labels—or anything—in order to prolong the moments before taking pen in hand. John C. Calhoun, vice president under Andrew Jackson, insisted he had to plow his fields before he could write, and Joseph Conrad, author of Lord Jim and other novels, is said to have cried on occasion from the sheer dread of sitting down to compose his stories. To spare you as much hand-wringing as possible, this chapter presents some practical suggestions on how to begin writing your short essay. Although all writers must find the methods that work best for them, you may find some of the following ideas helpful. But no matter how you actually begin putting words on paper, it is absolutely essential to maintain two basic ideas concerning your writing task. Before you write a single sentence, you should always remind yourself that 1. You have some valuable ideas to tell your reader, and 2. More than anything, you want to communicate those ideas to your reader. These reminders may seem obvious to you, but without a solid commitment to your own opinions as well as to your reader, your prose will be lifeless and boring. If you don’t care about your subject,...
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...Gabriel Garcia Marquez One Hundred Years of Solitude Chapter 1 MANY YEARS LATER as he faced the firing squad, Colonel Aureliano Buendía was to remember that distant afternoon when his father took him to discover ice. At that time Macondo was a village of twenty adobe houses, built on the bank of a river of clear water that ran along a bed of polished stones, which were white and enormous, like prehistoric eggs. The world was so recent that many things lacked names, and in order to indicate them it was necessary to point. Every year during the month of March a family of ragged gypsies would set up their tents near the village, and with a great uproar of pipes and kettledrums they would display new inventions. First they brought the magnet. A heavy gypsy with an untamed beard and sparrow hands, who introduced himself as Melquíades, put on a bold public demonstration of what he himself called the eighth wonder of the learned al-chemists of Macedonia. He went from house to house dragging two metal ingots and everybody was amazed to see pots, pans, tongs, and braziers tumble down from their places and beams creak from the desperation of nails and screws trying to emerge, and even objects that had been lost for a long time appeared from where they had been searched for most and went dragging along in turbulent confusion behind Melquíades’ magical irons. “Things have a life of their own,” the gypsy proclaimed with a harsh accent. “It’s simply a matter of waking up their souls.” José...
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...NOTE: This PDF document has a handy set of “bookmarks” for it, which are accessible by pressing the Bookmarks tab on the left side of this window. ***************************************************** We are the last. The last generation to be unaugmented. The last generation to be intellectually alone. The last generation to be limited by our bodies. We are the first. The first generation to be augmented. The first generation to be intellectually together. The first generation to be limited only by our imaginations. We stand both before and after, balancing on the razor edge of the Event Horizon of the Singularity. That this sublime juxtapositional tautology has gone unnoticed until now is itself remarkable. We're so exquisitely privileged to be living in this time, to be born right on the precipice of the greatest paradigm shift in human history, the only thing that approaches the importance of that reality is finding like minds that realize the same, and being able to make some connection with them. If these books have influenced you the same way that they have us, we invite your contact at the email addresses listed below. Enjoy, Michael Beight, piman_314@yahoo.com Steven Reddell, cronyx@gmail.com Here are some new links that we’ve found interesting: KurzweilAI.net News articles, essays, and discussion on the latest topics in technology and accelerating intelligence. SingInst.org The Singularity Institute for Artificial Intelligence: think tank devoted to increasing...
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...THE POWER OF SIX BOOK TWO OF THE LORIEN LEGACIES PITTACUS LORE Contents Cover Title Page Chapter One Chapter Two Chapter Three Chapter Four Chapter Five Chapter Six Chapter Seven Chapter Eight Chapter Nine Chapter Ten Chapter Eleven Chapter Twelve Chapter Thirteen Chapter Fourteen Chapter Fifteen Chapter Sixteen Chapter Seventeen Chapter Eighteen Chapter Nineteen Chapter Twenty Chapter Twenty-One Chapter Twenty-Two Chapter Twenty-Three Chapter Twenty-Four Chapter Twenty-Five Chapter Twenty-Six Chapter Twenty-Seven Chapter Twenty-Eight Chapter Twenty-Nine Chapter Thirty Chapter Thirty-One Chapter Thirty-Two Chapter Thirty-Three About the Author Also by Pittacus Lore Credits Copyright About the Publisher THE EVENTS IN THIS BOOK ARE REAL. NAMES AND PLACES HAVE BEEN CHANGED TO PROTECT THE LORIEN SIX, WHO REMAIN IN HIDING. OTHER CIVILIZATIONS DO EXIST. SOME OF THEM SEEK TO DESTROY YOU. Chapter One MY NAME IS MARINA, AS OF THE SEA, BUT I WASN’T called that until much later. In the beginning I was known merely as Seven, one of the nine surviving Garde from the planet Lorien, the fate of which was, and still is, left in our hands. Those of us who aren’t lost. Those of us still alive. I was six when we landed. When the ship jolted to a halt on Earth, even at my young age I sensed how much was at stake for us—nine Cêpan, nine Garde— and that our only chance waited for us here. We had entered the planet’s atmosphere in the midst of a storm of our own creation, and as our feet...
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...THE FIRST FILIPINO Republie of the Philippines Department of Education & Culture NATIONAL HISTORICAL COMMISSION Manila FERDINAND E. MARCOS President Republic of the Philippines JUAN L. MANUEL Secretary of Education & Culture ESTEBAN A. DE OCAMPO Chairman DOMINGO ABELLA Member HORACIO DE LA COSTA, S. J. Member GODOFREDO L. ALCASID Ex-Oficio Member TEODORO A. AGONCILLO Member EMILIO AGUILAR CRUZ Member SERAFIN D. QUIASON Ex-Oficio Member FLORDELIZA K. MILITANTE Exccutive Director RAMON G. CONCEPCION Chief, Administrative Division BELEN V. FORTU Chief, Budget & Fiscal Division JOSE C. DAYRIT Chief, Research & Publications Division AVELINA M. CASTAÑEDA Chief, Special & Commemorative Events Division ROSAURO G. UNTIVERO Historical Researcher & Editor EULOGIO M. LEAÑO Chief Historical Writer-Translator & Publications Officer GENEROSO M. ILANO Auditor JOSE RIZAL (1861-1896) THE FIRST FILIPINO A Biography of José Rizal by LEÓN Ma. GUERRERO with an introduction by CARLOS QUI R INO ( Awarded First Prize in the Rizal Biography Contest held under the auspices of the José Rizal National Centennial Commission in 1961) NATIONAL HISTORICAL COMMISSION Manila 1974 First Printing 1963 Second Printing 1965 Third Printing 1969 Fourth Printing 1971 Fifth Printing 1974 This Book is dedicated by the Author to the other Filipinos Speak of me as I am; nothing extenuate, Nor set down aught in malice, Shakespeare: °the/Lo. Paint my picture truly like me, and not flatter me at all ; but...
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...CONTENTS Introduction Part One: Foundations Chapter One: Introduction to Advertising 1 Chapter Two: Advertising’s Role in Marketing 34 Chapter Three: Advertising and Society 68 Part Two: Planning and Strategy Chapter Four: How Advertising Works 103 Chapter Five: The Consumer Audience 135 Chapter Six: Strategic Research 169 Chapter Seven: Strategic Planning 205 Part Three: Effective Advertising Media Chapter Eight: Print and Out-of-Home Media 239 Chapter Nine: Broadcast Media 274 Chapter Ten: Interactive and Alternative Media 310 Chapter Eleven: Media Planning and Buying 345 Part Four: Effective Advertising Messages Chapter Twelve: The Creative Side and Message Strategy 378 Chapter Thirteen: Copywriting 411 Chapter Fourteen: Design and Production 443 Part Five: Integration and Evaluation Chapter Fifteen: Direct Response 476 Chapter Sixteen: Sales Promotion, Events, and Sponsorships 508 Chapter Seventeen: Public Relations 542 Chapter Eighteen: Special Advertising Situations 576 Chapter Nineteen: Evaluation of Effectiveness 610 INTRODUCTION Welcome to the Test Item File for the Wells/Moriarty/Burnett Advertising: Principles and Practice, 7th edition text. This test bank was designed with the student and instructor in mind. All questions in this manual are drawn directly from the master text. APPLICATION QUESTIONS: New to the seventh edition of the Test Item File is a section...
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...Educational Psychology: Developing Learners This is a protected document. Please enter your ANGEL username and password. Username: Password: Login Need assistance logging in? Click here! If you experience any technical difficulty or have any technical questions, please contact technical support during the following hours: M-F, 6am-12am MST or Sat-Sun, 7am-12am MST by phone at (800) 800-9776 ext. 7200 or submit a ticket online by visiting http://help.gcu.edu. Doc ID: 1009-0001-191D-0000191E DEVELOPING LEARNERS JEANNE ELLIS ORMROD Professor Emerita, University of Northern Colorado EIGHTH EDITION ISBN 1-256-96292-9 Boston Columbus Indianapolis New York San Francisco Upper Saddle River Amsterdam Cape Town Dubai London Madrid Milan Munich Paris Montreal Toronto Delhi Mexico City São Paulo Sydney Hong Kong Seoul Singapore Taipei Tokyo Educational Psychology: Developing Learners, Eighth Edition, by Jeanne Ellis Ormrod. Published by Pearson. Copyright © 2014 by Pearson Education, Inc. Vice President and Editorial Director: Jeffery W. Johnston Vice President and Publisher: Kevin Davis Editorial Assistant: Lauren Carlson Development Editor: Christina Robb Vice President, Director of Marketing: Margaret Waples Marketing Manager: Joanna Sabella Senior Managing Editor: Pamela D. Bennett Project Manager: Kerry Rubadue Senior Operations Supervisor: Matthew Ottenweller Senior Art Director: Diane Lorenzo Text Designer: Candace Rowley Cover Designer:...
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...Comments on FUTURE SHOCK C. P. Snow: "Remarkable ... No one ought to have the nerve to pontificate on our present worries without reading it." R. Buckminster Fuller: "Cogent ... brilliant ... I hope vast numbers will read Toffler's book." Betty Friedan: "Brilliant and true ... Should be read by anyone with the responsibility of leading or participating in movements for change in America today." Marshall McLuhan: "FUTURE SHOCK ... is 'where it's at.'" Robert Rimmer, author of The Harrad Experiment: "A magnificent job ... Must reading." John Diebold: "For those who want to understand the social and psychological implications of the technological revolution, this is an incomparable book." WALL STREET JOURNAL: "Explosive ... Brilliantly formulated." LONDON DAILY EXPRESS: "Alvin Toffler has sent something of a shock-wave through Western society." LE FIGARO: "The best study of our times that I know ... Of all the books that I have read in the last 20 years, it is by far the one that has taught me the most." THE TIMES OF INDIA: "To the elite ... who often get committed to age-old institutions or material goals alone, let Toffler's FUTURE SHOCK be a lesson and a warning." MANCHESTER GUARDIAN: "An American book that will ... reshape our thinking even more radically than Galbraith's did in the 1950s ... The book is more than a book, and it will do more than send reviewers raving ... It is a spectacular outcrop of a formidable, organized intellectual effort ... For the first time in history...
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...Childhood’s End Arthur C. Clarke The opinions expressed in this book are not those of the author I EARTH AND THE OVERLORDS Chapter 1 The volcano that had reared Taratua up from the Pacific depths had been sleeping now for half a million years. Yet in a little while, thought Reinhold, the island would be bathed with fires fiercer than any that had attended its birth. He glanced towards the launching site, and his gaze climbed the pyramid of scaffolding that still surrounded the “Columbus”. Two hundred feet above the ground, the ship’s prow was catching the last rays of the descending sun. This was one of the last nights it would ever know; soon it would be floating in the eternal sunshine of space. It was quiet here beneath the palms, high up on the rocky spine of the island. The only sound from the Project was the occasional yammering of an air compressor or the faint shout of a workman. Reinhold had grown fond of these clustered palms; almost every evening he had come here to survey his little empire. It saddened him to think that they would be blasted to atoms when the “Columbus” rose in flame and fury to the stars. A mile beyond the reef, the “James Forrestal” had switched on her searchlights and was sweeping the dark waters. The sun had now vanished completely, and the swift tropical night was racing in from the east. Reinhold wondered, a little sardonically, if the carrier expected to find Russian...
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...SATs published in the past two decades. Next, look over the words on our Hot Prospects List, which appears immediately after the High-Frequency List. Though these words don’t appear as often as the high-frequency words do, when they do appear, the odds are that they’re key words in questions. As such, they deserve your special attention. Now you’re ready to master the words on the High-Frequency and Hot Prospects Word Lists. First, check off those words you think you know. Then, look up all the words and their definitions in our 3,500 Basic Word List. Pay particular attention to the words you thought you knew. See whether any of them are defined in an unexpected way. If they are, make a special note of them. As you know from the preceding chapters, SAT often stumps students with questions based on unfamiliar meanings of familiar-looking words. Use the flash cards in the back of this book and create others for the words you want to master. Work up memory tricks to help yourself remember them. Try using them on your parents and friends. Not only will going over these high-frequency words reassure you that you do know some SAT-type words, but also it may well help you on the actual day of the test. These words have turned up on recent tests; some of them may well turn up on the test you take. The more you study actual SAT critical reading questions, the more you realize one thing: the key to doing well on the critical reading portions of SAT is a strong working vocabulary of college-level...
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