...THE B L A C K SWAN The HIGHLY I mpact IM of the PROBABLE Nassim Nicholas Taleb U.S.A. $26.95 Canada $34.95 is a highly improbable event with three principal characteristics: It is unpre dictable; it carries a massive impact; and, after the fact, we concoct an explanation that makes it appear less random, and more predictable, than it was. The astonishing success of Google was a black swan; so was 9 / 1 1 . For Nassim Nicholas Taleb, black swans underlie almost everything about our world, from the rise of religions to events in our own personal lives. A BLACK SWAN Why do we not acknowledge the phenomenon of black swans until after they occur? Part of the answer, according to Taleb, is that humans are hardwired to learn specifics when they should be focused on generalities. We concentrate on things we already know and time and time again fail to take into consideration what we don't know. We are, therefore, unable to truly estimate oppor tunities, too vulnerable to the impulse to simplify, narrate, and categorize, and not open enough to rewarding those who can imagine the "impossible." For years, Taleb has studied how we fool our selves into thinking we know more than we actually do. We restrict our thinking to the irrelevant and inconsequential, while large events continue to surprise us and shape our world. Now, in this reve latory book, Taleb explains everything we know about what we don't know. He offers...
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...Introduction to Supply Chain Management Technologies Second Edition Introduction to Supply Chain Management Technologies Second Edition David Frederick Ross CRC Press Taylor & Francis Group 6000 Broken Sound Parkway NW, Suite 300 Boca Raton, FL 33487-2742 © 2011 by Taylor and Francis Group, LLC CRC Press is an imprint of Taylor & Francis Group, an Informa business No claim to original U.S. Government works Printed in the United States of America on acid-free paper 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 International Standard Book Number-13: 978-1-4398-3753-5 (Ebook-PDF) This book contains information obtained from authentic and highly regarded sources. Reasonable efforts have been made to publish reliable data and information, but the author and publisher cannot assume responsibility for the validity of all materials or the consequences of their use. The authors and publishers have attempted to trace the copyright holders of all material reproduced in this publication and apologize to copyright holders if permission to publish in this form has not been obtained. If any copyright material has not been acknowledged please write and let us know so we may rectify in any future reprint. Except as permitted under U.S. Copyright Law, no part of this book may be reprinted, reproduced, transmitted, or utilized in any form by any electronic, mechanical, or other means, now known or hereafter invented, including photocopying, microfilming, and recording, or in any information storage or retrieval...
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...animal Books by Elliot Aronson Theories of Cognitive Consistency (with R. Abelson et al.), 1968 Voices of Modern Psychology, 1969 The Social Animal, 1972, 1976, 1980, 1984, 1988, 1992, 1995, 1999, 2004; (with J. Aronson), 2008 Readings About the Social Animal, 1973, 1977, 1981, 1984, 1988, 1992, 1995, 1999, 2004; (with J. Aronson), 2008 Social Psychology (with R. Helmreich), 1973 Research Methods in Social Psychology (with J. M. Carlsmith & P. Ellsworth), 1976 The Jigsaw Classroom (with C. Stephan et al.), 1978 Burnout: From Tedium to Personal Growth (with A. Pines & D. Kafry), 1981 Energy Use: The Human Dimension (with P. C. Stern), 1984 The Handbook of Social Psychology (with G. Lindzey), 3rd ed., 1985 Career Burnout (with A. Pines), 1988 Methods of Research in Social Psychology (with P. Ellsworth, J. M. Carlsmith, & M. H. Gonzales), 1990 Age of Propaganda (with A. R. Pratkanis), 1992, 2000 Social Psychology, Vols. 1–3 (with A. R. Pratkanis), 1992 Social Psychology: The Heart and the Mind (with T. D. Wilson & R. M. Akert), 1994 Cooperation in the Classroom: The Jigsaw Method (with S. Patnoe), 1997 Nobody Left to Hate: Teaching Compassion After Columbine, 2000 Social Psychology: An Introduction (with T. D. Wilson & R. M. Akert), 2002, 2005, 2007 The Adventures of Ruthie and a Little Boy Named Grandpa (with R. Aronson), 2006 Mistakes Were Made (But Not By Me) (with C. Tavris), 2007 Books by Joshua Aronson Improving Academic Achievement, 2002 The Social Animal To...
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...WRITING REFERENCES Citi: Oil Could Plunge to $20, and This Might Be 'the End of OPEC' "It looks exceedingly unlikely for OPEC to return to its old way of doing business," Morse wrote. Despite global declines in spending that have driven up oil prices in recent weeks, oil production in the U.S. is still rising, wrote Edward Morse, Citigroup's global head of commodity research. Brazil and Russia are pumping oil at record levels, and Saudi Arabia, Iraq and Iran have been fighting to maintain their market share by cutting prices to Asia. The market is oversupplied, and storage tanks are topping out. A pullback in production isn't likely until the third quarter, Morse said Vets fight to save hero dog who tried to shield owner from house fire "She's doing OK. Considering what Carmen has been through we think she's doing as well as can be expected," Dr. Daniel Carey, a vet at the hospital, told WCPO. "It's not unexpected that she's not ready to come off (the ventilator). It's just that in our best case scenario (we thought) maybe we could've hoped to get her off (Sunday) afternoon," Carey told WCPO The hospital is also providing updates on Carmen through social media, using Facebook to post pictures of the dog resting on a pink blanket and keeping company with a pair of stuffed animals. Your Resume Is Useless Unless It Answers This 1 Question If you’re a regular reader of this blog, you know how keenly we believe there’s no such thing as a generic or one-size-fits-all resume ...
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...62118 0/nm 1/n1 2/nm 3/nm 4/nm 5/nm 6/nm 7/nm 8/nm 9/nm 1990s 0th/pt 1st/p 1th/tc 2nd/p 2th/tc 3rd/p 3th/tc 4th/pt 5th/pt 6th/pt 7th/pt 8th/pt 9th/pt 0s/pt a A AA AAA Aachen/M aardvark/SM Aaren/M Aarhus/M Aarika/M Aaron/M AB aback abacus/SM abaft Abagael/M Abagail/M abalone/SM abandoner/M abandon/LGDRS abandonment/SM abase/LGDSR abasement/S abaser/M abashed/UY abashment/MS abash/SDLG abate/DSRLG abated/U abatement/MS abater/M abattoir/SM Abba/M Abbe/M abbé/S abbess/SM Abbey/M abbey/MS Abbie/M Abbi/M Abbot/M abbot/MS Abbott/M abbr abbrev abbreviated/UA abbreviates/A abbreviate/XDSNG abbreviating/A abbreviation/M Abbye/M Abby/M ABC/M Abdel/M abdicate/NGDSX abdication/M abdomen/SM abdominal/YS abduct/DGS abduction/SM abductor/SM Abdul/M ab/DY abeam Abelard/M Abel/M Abelson/M Abe/M Aberdeen/M Abernathy/M aberrant/YS aberrational aberration/SM abet/S abetted abetting abettor/SM Abeu/M abeyance/MS abeyant Abey/M abhorred abhorrence/MS abhorrent/Y abhorrer/M abhorring abhor/S abidance/MS abide/JGSR abider/M abiding/Y Abidjan/M Abie/M Abigael/M Abigail/M Abigale/M Abilene/M ability/IMES abjection/MS abjectness/SM abject/SGPDY abjuration/SM abjuratory abjurer/M abjure/ZGSRD ablate/VGNSDX ablation/M ablative/SY ablaze abler/E ables/E ablest able/U abloom ablution/MS Ab/M ABM/S abnegate/NGSDX abnegation/M Abner/M abnormality/SM abnormal/SY aboard ...
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