...TO: FROM: RE: China’s Renminbi Valuation Discussion The following memo provides a summary of the basic discussion of the valuation of China’s Renminbi, the tumultuous situation surrounding global discussion regarding its valuation, and what appreciation of the Renminbi might mean for the global economy. This analysis is based primarily upon the Fung & Wong article, “China’s Renminbi: ‘Our Currency, Your Problem’?”. Valuation Controls Placed Upon the Renminbi Over the past couple decades China has maintained a high level of economic growth rate of approximately 9% per year. Recently, many countries began questioning the valuation of China’s currency, the Renminbi, and China’s exchange rate policies. These other countries pointed to China’s emergence as the third largest exporter of goods and the accumulation of $1.2 trillion (US$) in foreign currency reserves. In its defense, China asserted that the Renminbi was not undervalued and that its exchange rate policies helped maintain a stable economic environment. It also stated that countries running large trade and budget deficits, specifically with China, like the US, were attempting to use China as a scapegoat rather than the weaknesses of their own economies. Is the Renminbi Undervalued? It appears to me that the Renminbi is likely undervalued. Pegging the currency primarily to the United States Dollar (USD), and eventually to a basket of currencies dominated by the USD, may have created stability in the Chinese...
Words: 979 - Pages: 4
...How China’s Currency Manipulation Affects US Economy Howe School of Technology Management Principles of Economics How China’s Currency Manipulation Affects US Economy Currency intervention is the action of one or more governments, central banks, or speculators that increases or reduces the value of a particular currency against another currency – this is according to Wikipedia. From January until October in 2010 imports from China to the United States this year were $299,026.0 million and only $72,276.2 million in exports to China, leaving a U.S. trade deficit of -226,749.8 million - this is according to the U.S Census Bureau U.S Foreign Trade Statistics. Here we can examine that Chinese imports to the United States were too high which makes U.S. Gross Domestic Profit (GDP) shrink because imports are subtracted to the Gross Domestic Profit. This trade deficit causes damage to the United States manufacturers and destroys jobs. Chinese products are very attractive because their low labor cost. When U.S. people purchase Chinese manufacturing goods, their manufactures are compensated in dollars which are placed in a United States bank account. Then, the Chinese need to exchange the dollars to Yuan and as a result via their banks they sell the dollars to the Chinese Central Bank which is known as the People’s Bank of China. Given that the U.S trade with China does not balance, the result will be a shortage of the Yuan and a surplus...
Words: 833 - Pages: 4
...China: To Float or Not To Float? International Finance 1 - What are the implications of China’s exchange rate policy on doing business with and “against” China? For years, China’s currency was undervalued. Many analysts and economists estimated that the Chinese currency (Yuan) was undervalued by 35%. So, for years, China kept a higher exchange rate. By doing so, China has some advantages but also some disadvantages. First, by undervaluing its currency, China keeps the Yuan as a weak currency, (because you need more Yuan to buy a US dollar). By doing that, China was able to keep a competitive advantage over other countries such as the US. Their products were sold for a cheaper price compared to the US products. But even if there are advantages, there are also disadvantages to have a high exchange rate. By having an undervalued currency, importations become really expensive. In fact, by having a high exchange rate, due to the price of importations, the deficit of China is also increasing. After several calls, the 21st of July 2005, China revalued its exchange rate from 8.28 Yuan per U.S dollar to 8.11 Yuan per U.S dollar. It implied other consequences on doing business with and “against” China. 2 - How is China’s exchange rate policy linked to its development strategy? How would changes in exchange rate policy impact growth in China as well as the rest of the world? Is the current exchange rate policy sustainable in the long run? China has known a relatively fast...
Words: 1935 - Pages: 8
...China’s Renminbi: “Our Currency, Your Problem?” Problem Statement In 2006, China has undergone pressure by many countries including the United States. The U.S. believed that the renminbi (RMB), failed to appreciate eliminating job opportunities for other countries. However, China’s officials reacted by implying that China was a sovereign country with the right to choose its exchange rate policy. Pertinent Facts The exchange rate is one of the key factors that could possibly affect foreign profitability. In the case, Fung and Wong indicated in 2006, that China had become the world’s third-largest exporter with an estimated $970 billion and earning $1.2 trillion in foreign currency reserves (Fung). The U.S. and other countries are concerned that the Yuan was undervalued which will ultimately raise the demand for Chinese exports and decrease China's demand for imports from other countries. Becker states that if China keeps the dollar and the currencies of other countries artificially expensive compared to its currency it will create a problem towards other economies (Becker). The U.S. believes that China is manipulating the exchange rate to increase trade and dollar assets. The United States have also expressed extreme concern with China’s way of trade. For example, the U.S. questioned the fact that the renminbi is being a peg against the dollar. This case analysis will subsequently identify the following answers to the questions: * Should China...
Words: 1129 - Pages: 5
...Chinese Yuan become a Global Reserve Currency? Abstract China’s economy is growing ever larger, but is that enough to get the Chinese Renminbi (more commonly known as Yuan) to be accepted as a global market currency? This paper will look into the liberalization, but with Chinese characteristics, of five determining factors in becoming a country who’s currency is a global reserve currency. These factors are as follows: economic size, macroeconomic policies, flexible exchange rates, financial market development, and finally having an open capital account, and will ultimately prove the China is not quite the rising economic power some believe it to be (citation, 2012). Market Liberalization… with Chinese Characteristics In China, it is currently the year of the dragon, a symbol of good fortune and sign of intense power. With this symbol of fortune and power many Chinese are hoping for a year of economic prosperity, especially for the growth of the Renminbi, or more commonly known as the Yuan. In recent years, China has maintained that it’s “special” economy is pursuing a “market economy, but with Chinese characteristics”. Some of these characteristics include encouraging more of an international use of the currency, while being famous for their inflexibility with exchange rates, and not fully opening up the economy to the free flow of capital. However, the Yuan’s acceptance as a reserve currency will be based on China’s economic size, macroeconomic policies...
Words: 1523 - Pages: 7
...2014 | GDP | $10.35 trillion | 2014 | GDP growth | 7.3% | 2014 | Inflation | 2.0% | 2014 | CHINA Economic Overview The Chinese economy experienced astonishing growth in the last few decades that catapulted the country to become the world's second largest economy. In 1978—when China started the program of economic reforms—the country ranked ninth in nominal gross domestic product (GDP) with USD 214 billion; 35 years later it jumped up to second place with a nominal GDP of USD 9.2 trillion. Since the introduction of the economic reforms in 1978, China has become the world’s manufacturing hub, where the secondary sector (comprising industry and construction) represented the largest share of GDP. However, in recent years, China’s modernization propelled the tertiary sector and, in 2013, it became the largest category of GDP with a share of 46.1%, while the secondary sector still accounted for a sizeable 45.0% of the country’s total output. Meanwhile, the primary sector’s weight in GDP has shrunk dramatically since the country opened to the world. China weathered the global economic crisis better than most other countries. In November 2008, the State Council unveiled a CNY 4.0 trillion (USD 585 billion) stimulus package in an attempt to shield the country from the worst effects of the financial crisis. The massive stimulus program fueled economic growth mostly through massive investment projects, which triggered concerns that the country could have been building...
Words: 3643 - Pages: 15
...economic relationship with China. Until 2005, China pegged its currency to the U.S. dollar, but as from July 2005, it linked its currency to other currencies rather than dollars and let its currency appreciate by 2.1%. The central bank of China did this by buying and selling the dollar dominated assets in exchange of printed Yuan in order to eliminate excess supply or demand for the Yuan. Due to this, the exchange rate between the dollar and the Yuan, basically, remained constant irrespective of changes in economic factors which could have otherwise destabilized the Yuan relative to the dollar. Since these reforms, China has continued manipulating its currency to its advantages, such as giving exporters an unfair trade advantage. This paper will provide an analysis of China’s Yuan against the U.S. dollar for the past 5 years ending in 2010. Also, the exchange-traded fund (ETF) of Yuan is discussed in depth. Recently, the U.S. policymakers had been having debates over China’s currency policy. The policy adopted by China has been linked to the rapidly growing United States’ trade deficit with China and the decline of employment in the U.S. and the emergence of China as a major economic power. The U.S had been claiming that the Yuan is undervalued with respect to the dollar. Good indicators that the Yuan is considerably undervalued are the sharp increase in China’s foreign exchange reserves and its large trade surplus. China’s foreign exchange reserve grew from $403 billion in 2003 to...
Words: 1117 - Pages: 5
...Part 2 Introduction China’s export growth and penetration have been remarkable. While China was basically a closed economy 30 years ago, it is now the leading exporter to Japan, the second leading exporter to Europe, and the third leading exporter to the US. This surge in exports has been accompanied by growing trade imbalances between China and the rest of the world. China’s global current account surplus equaled 9% of Chinese GDP in 2006 and 11% of GDP in 2007 (Thorbecke & Smith, 2010). These surpluses are primarily with the US and Europe. Due to these factors, the exchange rate policy of China has attracted a great deal of attention in academic, industrial and political arenas. With the emerging China economy as the largest reserve country and the largest “world factory”, the Chinese renminbi (RMB) exchange rate has been the centre of ongoing debate over the source of global current account imbalance, especially with the United States (Sato, Shimizu, Shrestha & Zhang, 2012). Since the direct peg to the dollar was ended in 2005, the RMB has continued its appreciation about 6% per year and enhanced flexibility over the past 7 years. However, appreciation pressure on the RMB remains intense and it is still debatable whether and to what extent the current level of the RMB exchange rate is overvalued or undervalued. Issues Political Influences One of the main reasons for the appreciation pressure on the RMB is the US’ claim that the Chinese government has made the...
Words: 2682 - Pages: 11
...crucial factor in deciding the value of currency for a country. In China, one of the biggest developing countries, the appreciation of the RMB has risen by 28% since 2005, and it has been close to 4.5% growth per year. (Chinese Yuan, 2011) The question is what is the future of RMB? Will it continue in a rising trend? What things can be affected by the change of currency value? In general, the currency value will change when the relation between supply and demand is becoming different. “A currency will tend to become more valuable whenever demand for it is greater than the available supply. It will become less valuable whenever demand is less than available supply.”(Exchange rate, 2011) However, answering to these questions involves more complicated aspects: world trading situation, inflation level, and unemployment rate. There is an interactive relationship, which exists between these aspects and the exchange rate. Therefore, to predict the target value of RMB is extremely important for running China. Combined with current reports and researches, I came to a conclusion that the predicted value of RMB should not rise dramatically, and is better to keep the present value. Opposing position The opposing point is that the value of Yuan should rise up. There are broad concerns among economists on a global scale that RMB is undervalued. According to a report from The International Monetary Fund (IMF) advocated in 2010 that China's currency remains undervalued. (International Monetary...
Words: 1558 - Pages: 7
...Summarize and evaluate the arguments presented in the (A) case for and against the revaluation of the Renminbi. Provide your own assessment of the projected future direction of the RMB/USD exchange rate (using info provided in the case). China’s decision to release its currency from the decade long peg (approx. 8.28 Yuan per USD) raised multiple concerns within the global economic community. Many economists welcomed the decision while still others questioned it. Below is a brief description of the various arguments presented on the topic. Political: With the value of the Dollar decreasing over the recent years, the western governments are less pleased with China maintaining its currency at a fixed rate. The US and EU are of the opinion that the quasi-fixed exchange rate gives China a competitive advantage, creating a strain on their import surplus and thereby increasing their trade deficit with China. As of 2005, China’s exports and imports to and from the U.S was $86.9 and $27.6 Billion USD. Members of the US congress have threatened to impose tariffs against China if they do not agree to a revaluation. Allowing the Yuan to float would result in an increase in price of Chinese exports to the US and a decline in the price of US imports into China, hence narrowing their trade deficit. On the other hand, analysts argued that the increase in Yuan’s value between 94-01 was not an absolute result of inflation differentials between China and its trade partners. The large increase in...
Words: 2640 - Pages: 11
...1.0 Summary of the article It is not surprise to everyone that China has a major role in the global economy since its economic growth has moves the country into the ranks of middle income countries. Unfortunately, issues that China faced in most recently are whether it can contribute to the vigour of the worldwide economy and manage its internal stability. China's economy is now weakening and its GDP is perhaps below the government target of 7%. Investment sentiment is the weakest indicator, while the production level in China's industries has dropped which left surplus production capacity in the industries. Although China growth is slowing down, the probability that it will collapse suddenly is small. 2.0 Discussion The biggest problem in China is that the massive debt explosion is now threatening its entire economy, leading to a reduction in capital investment. There has been a boom in the Chinese stock market, yet buying share with borrowed money had magnified the fall when companies with huge debt begin to sell their investments to pay debts (Walker, 2015). Shanghai Composite Index decreased about 8.5% in August followed by China economy downturn which perhaps was the biggest decrease since 2007 (McHugh, 2015). Overreaction in Chinese market then affect the world such as Japan's Nikkei index had slipped by 4.6%, while the Eurofirst 300 index has had its worst day since 2009 (Matthews, 2015). However, falling of stock markets in itself will not cumber the global economy...
Words: 1415 - Pages: 6
...Chinese Yuan Bilateral Currency Swap Agreements. Nowadays internationalization of renminbi rises as many counties try to lessen their dependence on U.S. dollar. P.B.O.C. uses different instruments to drive expansion of RMB, weakening the U.S. dollar monopoly in the basket of the world reserve currencies. By 2013, the RMB is the 8th most traded currency in the world. On 17 August 2010, PBoC issued policy to allow Central Bank, RMB offshore Clearing Banks and offshore Participating Bank to invest the excess RMB in debt securities, in onshore Inter-bank Bond Market. In October, China further open up both FDI and ODI in RMB (Pilot RMB Settlement of Outward Direct Investment) and nominated Xinjiang as the first pilot province (which in early 2011 expanded to 20 pilot areas). In June 2013, United Kingdom became the first G-7 country to set up an official currency swap line with China. As of July 2014, 25 countries have signed the RMB Bilteral Swap Ageeement with PBoC with total facilities of over ¥2.7 trillion. These agreements tell us that China decided to increase the role of RMB in the world currency market. 2007: Creation of Dim Sum bonds and offshore RMB bond market The dim sum bond market generally refers to RMB-denominated bonds issued in Hong Kong. The majority of dim sum bond are denominated in CNH, but some are linked to CNY (but paid in USD). In July 2007, dim sum bonds worth a total of US$657 million were issued for the first time by China Development Bank. These financial...
Words: 4016 - Pages: 17
...BOFIT Discussion Papers 19 • 2011 Zhichao Zhang, Nan Shi and Xiaoli Zhang China’s new exchange rate regime, optimal basket currency and currency diversification Bank of Finland, BOFIT Institute for Economies in Transition BOFIT Discussion Papers Editor-in-Chief Laura Solanko BOFIT Discussion Papers 19/2011 23.7.2011 Zhichao Zhang, Nan Shi and Xiaoli Zhang: China’s new exchange rate regime, optimal basket currency and currency diversification ISBN 978-952- 462-714-6 ISSN 1456-5889 (online) This paper can be downloaded without charge from http://www.bof.fi/bofit Suomen Pankki Helsinki 2011 BOFIT- Institute for Economies in Transition Bank of Finland BOFIT Discussion Papers 19/2011 Contents Abstract ................................................................................................................................................ 3 Tiivistelmä ........................................................................................................................................... 4 1 2 Introduction ................................................................................................................................ 5 Theoretical model ..................................................................................................................... 11 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.7 2.8 3 Policy goal .................................................................................................................... 12 Trade...
Words: 11867 - Pages: 48
...Activity 2.3 Case Study: Wal-Mart and the yuan debate Why is the value of the yuan so important? Wal-Mart’s business strategy relies on low production costs which it can pass on to its customers. If Wal-Mart were a country then it would be China’s eighth largest trading partner ahead of Russia, Australia, and Canada. Wal-Mart’s non-Chinese owned suppliers operating in China number nearly 5,000 and all of them benefit from a low valued yuan compared to the dollar. The 176 million worldwide customers of Wal-Mart also benefit from the low valued yuan. With nearly 70% of Wal-Mart’s products coming from China a sharp increase in the value of the yuan against the dollar can be devastating for the company as the increased costs for Wal-Mart and would most likely passed on to customers. It could also hurt American customers whom Wal-Mart claims it saves the average household roughly $2,500 dollars every year. (Peng, 2011) If you were the CEO of Wal-Mart and were preparing for a meeting with the most vocal members of the US Congress on China’s currency “manipulation”, what would you say to them? I would point out that while it may be politically easy to blame China especially when it comes to an uniformed electorate, the rise in costs associated with policies aimed at encouraging China to lets its yuan to appreciate against the dollar will do harm in other ways. Average Americans (also known as voters) will feel an appreciated yuan in their wallets. China may be an easy target...
Words: 1287 - Pages: 6
...Chinese managed Float-format Summary : One of the ways China's economic rise was accomplished was by pegging its currency, the Chinese yuan to the United States dollar and instituting trading arrangements between the two nations. One of the arguments yuan against dollar is that it appears that China benefits more than the U.S. Manufacturers in the U.S. often put pressure on Congress to lobby China to appreciate its currency, citing the difficulty of competing against artificially cheap Chinese goods as a reason for change. Year after year, new bills are introduced by Congress demanding that China appreciate its currency so the yuan and dollar balance is more equalized. They claim the Chinese are protecting their trade superiority and the U.S. is forced to pay the price. Problem detecting : The problem from China's perspective is that appreciating the yuan could mean less foreign investment in China, deflation, lower wages and unemployment. Fewer exports will also diminish China's supply of dollars for investment, both inside and outside the country. China argues that the currency peg is meant to foster economic stability and abandoning the peg could result in an economic crisis. Some benefits of an undervalued yuan for the U.S. include lower prices for consumers, lower inflationary pressure and lower input prices for U.S. manufactures that use Chinese inputs. Alternatively, an undervalued yuan hurts U.S. industries that compete with cheap Chinese goods, thus hurting production...
Words: 410 - Pages: 2