...China’s Economic Growth 1978-2025: What We Know Today about China’s Economic Growth Tomorrow Views of the future China vary widely. While some believe that the collapse of China is inevitable, others see the emergence of a new superpower that increasingly poses a threat to the U.S. This paper examines the economic growth prospects of China over the next two decades. Extrapolating past real GDP growth rates into the future, the size of the Chinese economy surpasses that of the U.S. in purchasing power terms between 2012 and 2015; by 2025, China is likely to be the world's largest economic power by almost any measure. The extrapolations are supported by two types of considerations. First, China’s growth patterns of the past 25 years since the beginning of economic reforms match well those identified by standard economic development and trade theories (structural change, catching up, and factor price equalization). Second, decomposing China’s GDP growth into growth of labor and other variables, the near-certain information available today about the quantity and quality of Chinese laborers through 2015, if not several years after, allows inferences about future GDP growth. Short of some cataclysmic event, demographics alone suggests China’s continued economic rise. If talent is randomly distributed in the world population and if agglomeration of talent is important, then the odds are strongly in China’s favor. Introduction The rapid economic growth of China since the...
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...Economic Impact of the One-Child Policy in China John F. Rodis EMBA International Economics Professor Jim Stodder October 15, 2014 The Economic Impact of the Single-Child Policy in China Thesis Statement: The single-child policy implemented in China more than thirty years ago to slow the rate of population growth, not only had a marginal effect on the growth of the population, but also had the unintended consequence of a long-lasting negative impact on the Chinese economy. Abstract: The Chinese government imposed a single-child policy 34 years ago in response to a rapidly increasing population that was determined to be unsustainable. Last November, the government ended the policy. A careful review of the literature regarding the efficacy of the policy as well as examination of other factors that could have affected population growth was conducted. The result of this review confirmed that the policy—in and of itself--had only a marginal impact on the growth of the Chinese population. However, the policy resulted in a significant change in the demographics of the Chinese population, with the result of China having a significantly older population than many developed nations, but one that aged at a much faster rate. However, unlike these developed nations, neither the Chinese people nor their government is adequately prepared for this rapidly aged population. As a consequence, there will be significant long-lasting negative consequences on the Chinese economy, including...
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...consequences of sex inequality have also resulted in increasing proportion of the low skilled male population. It is estimated that this proportion of low-skilled men could be as high 1:4 by the year 2030.Economists have outlined that reducing sex ratio imbalance might take several decades to bore fruits (Wallace, 321). However, the positive impacts of the reduced population of small unskilled male crime and disaffection could overcome the losses accrued from the higher population and decreased savings (Golley, Jane & Rodney, 197). As per the UN population statistics, China sex ratio got to 120 in the period between 2005 and 2010 compared to an average sex world rate of 107.These statistics made China to a gender imbalance with a high number of women population. This action has been coined as “missing women”. “Missing women” have continued to increase worldwide as the proportion of women alive has decreased. However in China the situation has continued to deteriorate in both percentage and absolute terms. Economists project that the economic policies for rebalancing sex ratio imbalance in China will take time before they bore positive impacts. Nevertheless, the outcomes of these suggest that the positive effects of reduced crime and lower male disaffection will be higher...
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...The People's Republic of China ranks since 2010 as the world's second largest economy after the United States. It has been the world's fastest-growing major economy, with consistent growth rates of around 10% over the past 30 years. China is also the largest exporter and second largest importer of goods in the world. The country's per capita GDP (PPP) was $7,544 (International Monetary Fund, 94th in the world) in 2010. The provinces in the coastal regions of China tend to be more industrialized, while regions in the hinterland are less developed. As China's economic importance has grown, so has attention to the structure and health of that economy. China’s population can be divided into roughly 3 parts: farmers (about 700-800 million), rural migrants (150-250 million) and urban residents (250-350 million). Demographically and politically, China’s rural sector is the most important. The Chinese Communist Party owes its initial success to rural residents; Mao Zedong depended heavily on soldiers from rural areas in his battles against both the Chinese Nationalists (Kuomintang) and invading Japanese soldiers. Biggest Challenges to China’s economy Since 1978 the Chinese economy has maintained economic growth at an average of nearly 8%. By western standards this is remarkable. The UK, by contrast, has grown at an average rate of 2.5%. However, despite the impressive figures there are many serious economic problems resulting from economic growth. 1. Pollution/ Environmental...
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...Zaki Azzubaidi STUDENT ID : 0875923 INTAKE : Aug 2009 MODULE LEADER : Eleanor Wall TO BE MARKED BY : Ms. Irene DATE OF SUBMISSION : 13th Oct 2009 “Demographic in China” * Part 1: A summary: China is famous for its huge population which is the world largest at more than 1.3 Billion. As a result, there is a rule in China that couples can only have one child. But nowadays this rule is affecting the country from a demographic point of view. Population age isn’t in balance between old and young, percentage of ageing people are growing more across the country, working age population will shrink by years to come. In other words, China will grow old. In a recent poll shows Chinese still prefer to stick with “one-child rule” the reason is, there are already too many people in China. ------------------------------------------------- * Part 2: Questions: 1. Suggest some benefits resulting from China’s “one-child rule”? First it will control over the country population, and it’s proven already, in addition this rule assures China's...
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...Industry environment ➢ Competitors Here we have to analyze the general environment of China. General environment is composed of several elements, which are discussed below in details. A. Demographic: 1. Geographic Distribution: If we see the geographical location of china in map than it is surrounded by North Korea, Japan, Vietnam etc. o Natural Hazards: There are frequent typhoons, damaging floods, Tsunamis, earthquakes, droughts, land subsidence etc occurs. So there is a high risk of natural calamities over there. o Climate: If we talk about the climate of china than it is extremely diverse, hot in south to cold in north. o Mountains and hilly land take up 65 percent of the total area. so most of the area of china are covered by mountains. o Area = total: 9,596,960 sq km o Land: 9,326,410 sq km o Water: 270,550 sq km o Coastline:14500 Km o China is World’s fourth largest country after Russia, Canada, US 2. Population size: With just over 1.3 billion people (1,330,044,605 as of mid-2008), China is the world's most populous country. As the world's population is approximately 6.7 billion, China represents a full 20% of the world's population so one in every five people on the planet is a resident of China. China's population growth has been somewhat slowed by the one child policy, in effect since 1979. 3. Classes of Population: The People's Republic of China is a unified, multi-national country,...
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...both countries have emerged as major economic forces in the global economy (Bosworth and Collins, 2007), most notably since 1980. Since then, India and China have experienced a significant reduction in poverty with China lifting 500 million out of social deprivation. According to the World Bank (2013), China has had an average GDP of 10% each year while India has seen her GDP double over a similar period. The countries are often compared due to their large population and geographical vastness as well as climbing from third world countries to major economic forces in a relatively short time. However, despite a significant increase in GDP, India has failed to demonstrate the same rates of growth as China. Although both countries were in a similar position during the early nineties, China’s GDP has increased 7 fold since this time; whereas India, although steady, GDP has doubled. The average annual rate is by 10% in China compared to 5-6% in India (see Figure 1). The purpose of this paper is to compare the rates of growth of India and China over the past 30 years and examine possible explanations for this phenomenon. The economies of these countries are underpinned by social, economic and political issues which have all been relevant to their growth. China has placed emphasis on investment over the past 30 years at around 35- 44% compared to 26% in India. Chandrasekhar and Ghosh (2007) argue that China’s high investment in infrastructure has been crucial to its attractiveness...
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...The Brics’ role in the global economy Paulo Roberto de Almeida In: Cebri-Icone-British Embassy in Brasília: Trade and International Negotiations for Journalists (Rio de Janeiro, 2009, p. 146-154; ISBN: 978-85-89534-05-5). ∗ 1. Where do they come from and what are the Brics? In demographic terms, BRIC holds the world’s two most populated countries and another two with considerable populations. China alone holds a fifth of the world’s population, and is closely followed by India (17.5%) and, by a larger gap Brazil (2.9%) and Russia (2.2%). Despite their large territories – Russia’s 17 million km2, India’s 3.2 million km2, China’s 9.3 million km2 and Brazil’s 8.5 million km2 –, the Brics differ from each other in terms of natural resources, level of industrialization and impact on the global economy. It is important to point out these differences, as definition as a bloc might lead to wrongful assumptions about the four countries’ individual current and future roles in the global economy. In order to be accurate about each country’s actual weight in the world, we should perhaps change the acronym to CIRB (but without the glamour of the name). Let us begin with China, which is the most continuous civilization in history – not strictly in terms of political linearity but rather in terms of cultural continuity. The country has a tragic contemporary history, marked by economic decadence, political instability, military humiliation and social regression caused by a deep degradation...
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...Capitalizing India’s demographic advantage Contents S.no | particular | Page no. | 1 | introduction | | 2 | Stricture of India’s workforce | | 3 | Possible Indian workforce structure by 2020 | | 4 | Comparison of India’s workforce with china china’s workforce | | 5 | Advantages of India’s Demographic Dividend * Cheap labor * Exporting labor force to other countries * Inflow of foreign currency * More Business Activities in Economy * No adverse impact of Recession in Economy * Contribution in Capital Formation * Contribution in Public Revenue * Other advantages of Indian demographic | | Introduction A HAPPY development in recent times has been the increasingly frequent talk about the positive side of our country. Since Independence, we have been generally witnessing only a series of negative cynical comments in the media. As Indians we must be the most self-critical set of people in the world, but this mindset seems to be changing. Among the positive talk has been the reference to India's demographic advantage. We are a billion strong — in the same class as China — and we also have an edge over China. Thirty seven (37) per cent of our population is in the 15-35 years age group against 25 per cent in China.This at a time when developed countries are having a declining population, most of which is becoming increasingly grey. The social security systems...
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...Global Economic Perspectives Exam II Objective List BASIC CONCEPTS * Exchange Rate Risk * Selling dollar-denominated bonds but not having dollar-denominated sales * China’s real estate bubble * How to avoid: * Currency swaps * Future markets * Currency pegs * Setting the currency equal to a specified value * What factors determine exchange rates (pegging and managed floats) * High interest rates Appreciation & recession – increased demand & price * Stronger currency favors importers (trade surplus) * Low interest ratesDepreciation & Expansion * Weaker currency favors exporters (trade deficit) * The role of the IMF * Make emergency loans to countries with balance of payment problems * Ensures stability of national monetary system * Fiscal Policy * Government changing taxes and/or government spending in effort to increase or decrease business activity * Expansionary FP leads to increased spending but downside is budget deficits * Contractionary FPleads to budget surpluses or smaller deficits * AKA Austerity (attempt to shrink growing deficits) * Monetary Policy * Central Banks changing the MS to increase or decrease the availability of credit in an effort to increase or decrease business activity * Primary tool is Open Market Operations * Buying and Selling short...
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...WORKING P A P E R Demographic Trends, Policy Influences, and Economic Effects in China and India Through 2025 JULIE DAVANZO, HARUN DOGO, AND CLIFFORD A. GRAMMICH WR-849 April 2011 This product is part of the RAND National Security Research Division working paper series. RAND working papers are intended to share researchers’ latest findings and to solicit informal peer review. They have been approved for circulation by RAND National Security Research Division but have not been formally edited or peer reviewed. Unless otherwise indicated, working papers can be quoted and cited without permission of the author, provided the source is clearly referred to as a working paper. RAND’s publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors. is a registered trademark. Preface In this paper we compare the recent and likely future demographic situations in China and India and their implications. This is a background paper for the chapter, “Population Trends in China and India: Demographic Dividend or Demographic Drag?. in the RAND report, China And India, 2025: A Comparative Assessment, MG-1009OSD, by Charles Wolf, Jr., Siddhartha Dalal, Julie DaVanzo, Eric V. Larson, Alisher R. Akhmedjonov, Harun Dogo, Meilinda Huang, and Silvia Montoya, and contains some of material referenced therein. The RAND report was done under the sponsorship of the Office of Net Assessment with the objective of understanding how China and India will compare to one...
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...family-planning-policies in China (explicitly the so-called One-Child-Policy) have affected economic growth since 1979 and tries to give possible predictions and forecasts on how it could affect economic growth until 2050 through critical model analysis. The Solow model gives theoretical answers but also yields analytical results through calculations subject to different population development scenarios (low, middle, high growth rates). The dependency ratio as a measurement of population age structure is analyzed and implemented into the Solow model to help understand the influence of family-planning-policies. It is shown that the One-Child-Policy affected heavily the last 32 years of China’s economic development and will continue to affect its future, but according to the calculations in this paper, the impact changes from a positive one to a negative one. Acknowledgements I would like to thank Professor Fabrizio Zilibotti for his supervision and for giving me the opportunity to write my thesis at his chair. Especially I would like to thank Yikai Wang for his very valuable and profound support and guidance for this thesis and I would like to thank Monika Egli, Andreas Braun and Rachel Waldvogel for helping me no matter which problems and obstacles I encountered. 2 Contents 1 Introduction 2 Population-Control-Policies and their Effects on Economic Growth in China from 1979 to 2005 2.1 One-Child-Policy in China . . . . . . . . . . . . . ....
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...Introduction BRIC is used in economics to refer to the combination of Brazil, Russia, India, and China which make up over 42% of the world's population. These nations are going to play a major role in the future of global economy. BRIC or BRICs are terms used in economics to refer to the combination of Brazil, Russia, India, and China. General consensus is that the term was first prominently used in a thesis of the Goldman Sachs investment bank. The main point of this 2003 paper was to argue that the economies of the BRICs are rapidly developing and by the year 2050 will eclipse most of the current richest countries of the world. Goldman Sachs argues that the economic potential of Brazil, Russia, India, and China is such that they may become among the four most dominant economies by the year 2050. The thesis was proposed by Jim O'Neill, global economist at Goldman Sachs. These countries are forecast to encompass over thirty-nine percent of the world's population. Goldman Sachs predicts China and India, respectively, to be the dominant global suppliers of manufactured goods and services while Brazil and Russia would become similarly dominant as suppliers of raw materials. Cooperation is thus hypothesized to be a logical next step among the BRICs because Brazil and Russia together form the logical commodity suppliers to India and China. Thus, the BRICs have the potential to form a powerful economic bloc to the exclusion of the modern-day G8 status. Brazil is dominant in...
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...[pic] A2 Business Studies Pre-Release Research Task ‘Development in Emerging Markets: China’ Learner Name: _____________________________ Preparing for A2 Business The Unit 3 examination Strategies for success • 25% of A level • 1 hour 45 minutes exam • 80 marks • The exam is case study based and comprises one 10 mark calculation question, two 18 mark evaluation questions and one 34 mark report. The Unit 4 examination The Business Environment and Managing Change • 25% of A level • 1 hour 45 minutes exam • 80 marks • Section A: Pre-release research tasks leading to a 40 mark essay • Section B: Choice of 3 essays, one must be chosen for 40 marks • This unit is synoptic – this means that it pulls together all the material from the entire AS and A2 specification. There are two key additional elements of preparation for this paper: Complete the research task The research task is designed to enable you to investigate in detail a small part of the Unit 4 specification. The research brief will give you precise guidance on the tasks to complete. Do not make too much of this task and extend your research beyond what is asked. Do, however, relate your research to a variety of large businesses producing goods and services and operating in different markets. Read widely about business You should read newspapers, magazines, and books, watch television and surf the internet for news...
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...to the forefront of international trade. Currently the world’s fastest growing major economy, China is set to eclipse the United States as the world’s largest economy by 2016. Among various domestic and international plays, one of China’s most fascinating uses of its newfound economic might is a considerable interest—and investment—in the continent of Africa. As its economy grew throughout the 2000s, China began establishing oil and mining firms across Africa. In return for the cooperation of African governments, China built new roads, bridges, and other varieties of desperately needed infrastructure. The economic powerhouse’s inroads into the African market quickly widened, and so did the scope of its investments. For every new mining and drilling operation, China built new governmental buildings, sports stadiums and housing complexes. China’s most prominent declaration of its intent to strengthen ties with Africa, however, was the construction of the $200 million African Union building in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia. Today, China’s trade with Africa exceeds $190 billion—up from just $10 billion in 2000. Many African leaders see China’s willingness to invest in Africa as an endorsement of the continent’s economic potential, or as African Union chairperson and President of Equatorial Guinea Teodoro Obiang Nguema puts it, “a reflection of the new Africa.” Others, however, see China’s...
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