Various other models predict the nation's vulnerability. Bangladesh is the nation most vulnerable to global climate change in the world, according to German Watch’s Global Climate Risk Index (CRI) of 2011. This is based on the analysis of impacts of major climate events that occurred around the world in the twenty-year period since 1990. The reasons are complex and extremely intertwined.
Located at the bottom of the mighty GBM river system (comprising the Ganges, the Brahmaputra and the Meghna), Bangladesh is watered by a total of 57 trans-boundary rivers coming down to it: 54 from neighbouring India and 3 from Myanmar. The country, which has no control of the water flow and volume, drains to the Bay of Bengal over 90% of the total run-off generated annually. Coupled with the high level of widespread poverty and increasing population density, limited adaptive capacity and poorly funded, ineffective local governance have made the region one of the most adversely affected in the planet. There are an estimated one thousand people in each square kilometre, with the national population increasing by 2 million people each year. Almost half the population is in poverty (Purchasing Power Parity of $1.25 per person a day). Hence these people do not have the ability to respond to a natural disaster and the government cannot help them.[2]
Effects[edit]
It is projected that, by 2020, from 500 to 750 million people will be affected by water stress caused by climate change around the world. Low-lying coastal regions, such as Bangladesh, are vulnerable to sea level rise and increased occurrence of intense, extreme weather conditions such as the cyclones from 2007–2009. In most countries like Bangladesh, yields from rainfed agriculture could be reduced to 50% by 2020. For a country with increasing population and hunger, this will have an extremely adverse effect on food security. Although effects of climate change are highly variable, by 2030, South Asia could lose 10% of riceand maize yields, while neighbouring states like Pakistan could experience a 50% reduction in crop yield.
As a result of all this, Bangladesh would need to prepare for long-term adaptation, which could be as drastic as changed sowing dates due to seasonal variations, introducing different varieties and species, to practising novel water supply and irrigationsystems. In essence, we have to identify all present vulnerabilities and future opportunities, adjusting priorities, at times even changing commodity and trade policies in the agricultural sector while promoting training and education throughout the masses in all possible spheres.[3]