...12/19/14 Systematic Traps and Biases in Professional Judgment: Insights from Research in Psychology Douglas F. Prawitt, PhD, CPA Brigham Young University The Emerging Science of Judgment • Rapid change, increased complexity in business • Greater importance of professional judgment The Emerging Science of Judgment • Rapid change, increased complexity in business • Greater importance of professional judgment Fortunate coincidence: A critical mass of insight on human judgment emerging— 30+ years of research in economics, management, and cognitive psychology bearing fruit 12/19/14 Ambitious goals for today • Introduce a model—common vocabulary and framework • Explain importance of proactive “reframing” and identify common pitfalls in applying the judgment model • Identify and explain judgment biases, and how to mitigate their impact Visual Perception Professional Judgment: The process of reaching a conclusion where there are a number of possible alternative solutions and uncertainty is involved. 12/19/14 Professional Judgment: The process of reaching a conclusion where there are a number of possible alternative solutions and uncertainty is involved. ‐‐A simple process‐oriented professional judgment framework is helpful… The KPMG Professional Judgment Framework © 2010 KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. Member firms of the KPMG network of independent firms are affiliated...
Words: 1172 - Pages: 5
...Brice Family Assessment/Treatment Plan Christina Blair CMHC/581 June 12, 2012 Shannon Anderson Brice Family Assessment/Treatment Plan Assessment The writre interviewed the Brice family of 5. The family consisted of a father, a mother, 2 girls and 1 boy. David, the father, is mid to late 60 year old Caucasian male. He is tall with square shoulders wearing glasses. He metacommunication Presenting Problem History of Problem- BRIEF Family History Assessment Summary: Another important quality of the co-research position is that of valuing emotional experiences and reflections. Our understanding of the preceding conversation is that in the state of being oppressed by violence, a person is defined by the violence. The concept of choice in that state is a mirage; a woman would not choose violence, but inside of a war zone there is no violence free territory. If the person and the context of violence are separated (deconstructed through externalization) the person's preferred story of their lives outside the "war zone" context can become visible. This distinction became available in the training conversation due to the process of allowing for correction and respecting the trainees feelings of being emotionally connected or disconnected to the unique accounts of those persons oppressed by the problem. Doherty (1991) has described negotiating meanings versus dictating a theme (p. 134). From our reflections about the interviewing process, we have...
Words: 1510 - Pages: 7
...0-8047-4586-2 (cloth : alk. paper) 1. Negotiation. 2. Conflict management. 3. Negotiation—Cross-cultural studies. 4. Conflict management—Cross-cultural studies. I. Gelfand, Michele J. II. Brett, Jeanne M. bf637.n4 h365 2004 302.3—dc22 2003025169 Typeset by TechBooks in 10.5/12 Bembo Original printing 2004 Last figure below indicates year of this printing: 13 12 11 10 09 08 07 06 05 04 Contents List of Tables and Figures Foreword Preface xi xv ix part one. basic psychological processes Introduction 3 1. The Evolution of Cognition and Biases in Negotiation Research: An Examination of Cognition, Social Perception, Motivation, and Emotion 7 Leigh Thompson, Margaret Neale, and Marwan Sinaceur 2. Cultural Differences and Cognitive Dynamics: Expanding the Cognitive Perspective on Negotiation 45 Michael W Morris and Michele J. Gelfand . 3. I...
Words: 186303 - Pages: 746
...Applying an Integrated Approach to a Case Example: Cognitive Behavioral Therapy and Person Centered Therapy Applying an Intergraded Approach to a Case Example: Cognitive Behavioral Therapy and Person Centered Therapy Theory plays an important role in the process and outcome of therapy. For this reason, it is a topic that is examined in depth in human service education programs and research. Theory is used to explain client problems and to dictate what is done in the counseling process (Hackney, 1992). Theory can be used to define “the nature of the relationship between the counselor and client, to conceptualize the nature of the presenting problem(s), and to define the resulting counseling goals or desired outcomes” (p.2). In the past, much focus has been paid on delineating and accentuating the differences between the many theories of therapy (Sprenkle, 2003, p. 93). Today, there is a move towards convergence of theories within the helping practices (Hackney, 1992, p. 3; Sprenkle, 2003). Researchers and practitioners are searching for an integrated approach which emphasizes the key components within the helping process and relationship that have been linked to effective therapy (Hackney, 1992, p.2). Cognitive-behavioral therapy (CBT) and Person-Centered Therapy (PCT) have been shown to bring about positive changes in therapy. CBT and PCT, like all single-theory approaches, have limitations. Literature suggests that...
Words: 4676 - Pages: 19
...behavior of change. Although both treatment approaches may be used collaboratively as evidence-based treatment approaches for substance use disorder; they are both quite different on the terms of the use of each treatment approach. Brief interventions are short, direct, and is combined of several interviewing strategies to aid to the effectiveness of the approach. Interventions such as BASICS and Brief Alcohol screening (David Capuzzi, 2016). Motivational interviewing includes several skills to assess change and is considered “most effective when combined with other standardized psychosocial interventions” (Jhanjee, 2014). Unlike Brief interventions motivational interviewing contains approaches shaped around “behavioral aspects of positive reframing, empathy, and reflective listening’ (David Capuzzi, 2016). And Brief interventions targets problematic or risky use and evaluates client need to change, rather than their motivation to...
Words: 920 - Pages: 4
...Introduction to Counseling PSY331 Instructor Dr. Chauntel Gustis January 11, 2015 * Introduction Over the last 12 years, I have undergone a lot of personal experiences with my children that have required the assistance of a child mental health professional. After much frustration with not always being able to find the appropriate individual due to shortages, I have made it my mission to become educated in my children's conditions and continue so that in the future I can assist parents and children who find themselves in the same predicament that I did for so long and I can best do that by becoming a child psychologist. Child psychologists work with children in areas that expand from general research to dealing with a variety of complex therapeutic treatments that are aimed at helping with their social and mental development. Often, we can find these experts working for schools, courts or even within private practices. One thing for sure is that they must be qualified, dedicated and equipped to handle the issues of the child and at times the family unit especially if they are as complex as the case of Briana. The Client - Briana Briana is currently 15 years old and is a lovely young lady with a couple of diagnoses. Her first diagnosis is Post Traumatic Stress Disorder (PTSD), which can only be diagnosed "after a person experiences symptoms for at least one month following a traumatic event, yet she was diagnosed at age 4. The disorder is characterized...
Words: 2028 - Pages: 9
...Pursuit of Happiness Happiness can be defined by everyone differently. Everyone I know says they are on a path seeking happiness but they can never truly define it, or their path toward it. So how do they know they are happy? Is it just a mind set? Being happy cannot be measured with wealth or possession of objects. A new mansion, expensive clothing, or a new car does not equate to happy feelings. Sure, I should think someone with these items would be happy, but it is never guaranteed. Having material possessions is just a mental distraction of the mind avoiding pain. Attaining perfect happiness would be achieved if only I could avoid all pain. Pain is what counter acts happiness, yet without pain we could never feel a sense of happiness. To me, being happy is attaining goals and always striving to go further. It gives me a sense of purpose. A sense of sanctification, which in a way equates to happiness. An example of me attaining happiness would be going to college and getting a job after graduating. Having a goal and a plan and knowing I could be something bigger makes me happy enough to move on. Yet, there is no such thing as “perfect happiness”. I say that because one can ever be perfectly happy with what they have done and what they want to do. There is always bumps in my life that make unhappy again. So I believe being happy is simply just a state of mind that it always changing. It's a never ending cycle in the pursuit of...
Words: 268 - Pages: 2
...It is easy to say something is hard to do if you never tried doing it. This saying hits home for me because there was a time I thought I could not play sports or thought that it would be a struggle because I had asthma. After beating myself up over not having the courage to try, my friends encouraged me to try out for basketball. When starting out it was a little hard to run and bounce the ball at the same time, it took even more energy and effort to shoot the ball. This did not help in keeping my spirit high. I felt defeated and stopped trying. While feeling bad about not being good right away I remembered what my mom told me “Everything does not come easy, you have to work for it”. This made me feel better and I practiced every day after school until I learned how to play the game. Now basketball is my favourite sport, if I had not tried it wouldn’t have been possible for me to brag about my accomplishments today. If you do not try to do something, you will never know if you are good at it. Confidence is the key when it comes to trying something new. Don’t be a failure by thinking you cannot do something or not even try. When making a mistake, try harder the next time and it will eventually become easy. You will be very happy and pleases with yourself when you try to do something and succeed. When attempting to do something put in the effort so you can be the best at it. I have learned that not trying is worst than trying and failing. I have so much...
Words: 302 - Pages: 2
...For all things listed as a study make sure you know the IV, DV, results and any theory that might be associated. Verbal Knowledge Lecture 16/ chapter 9/ Meyer What is a concept, categorization, and why do we categorize? What is the definitional approach? The prototype approach? The exemplar Approach? What do we wactually use? Rosch’s study of family resemblance. What is the typicality effect? Rosch’s study of it with priming colors. What are the types of categories according to Rosch? What is the evidence that Basic level categories are special? How can experience change this? What is the hierarchical model of Collins and Quillian? What are the flaws? What is spreading activation? What is Collins and Loftus’ Semantic model? What are the flaws? What is the connectionist approach? How does it simulate actual learning? How are categories represented in the brain? Freedman’s cat-dog study. Lexical Decisions: Meyer: Know the hypothesis in addition to the usual. Understand how the word types can be broken into different IVs. Mental Imagery Lecture 17/ chapter 10/ Shepard and Meltzer What is mental Imagery? Visual Imagery Study of paired associate learning (dog flower) Paivio’s study of nouns that can evoke an image What are the spatial and propositional representation of visual imagery? Kossyln’s studies (2) of visual imagery, know the criticism that lead to the second study (the island study). What is mental scanning? ...
Words: 692 - Pages: 3
...Outline and evaluate the working memory model In the working memory model, there are four main components; The central executive is the most important component as it is involved in problem solving and decision making. It controls attention and plays a vast part in planning and processing information from subsidiary systems and LTM. It is flexible and can process information. It has a limited capacity and can only contain a limited amount of information at one time, Secondly the phonological loop stores a limited amount of speech-based sounds for quick periods. It contains two components. The phonological store (inner ear) allows acoustically coded items to be stored for a brief timing. The articulatory control process (inner voice) allows subvocal repetition of the items stored in the phonological store. Repetition can be prevented by a technique known as ‘articulatory suppression’. The visuo-spatial scratch pad (inner eye) stores visual and spatial information. It is responsible for setting up and manipulating mental images. It has a limited capacity but the limits of the system are independent. The episodic buffer interrogates and manipulates material in the working memory. It has a limited capacity, depending a lot on executive processing. It is capable of binding together information from different sources into chunks/episodes. It interrogates material from LTM to meet the requirements of working memory. The working memory model has many advantages which are that it...
Words: 525 - Pages: 3
...There is also an issue of nomothetic vs idiographic; some theorists adopt a nomothetic approach while others adopt an idiographic approach. Individuals that adopt a nomothetic approach create theories based on what we share with others, and find general laws that can be applied to large groups of people, for example behaviourism is a nomothetic approach. On the other hand the idiographic approach goes into large detail for the individual to investigate why we are unique, for example Freud’s theory is an idiographic approach. There are six principle psychological perspectives which are applied to the understanding which includes; behaviourism, social learning, psychodynamic, humanistic, cognitive and developmental. These perspectives can be used to explain the development of individuals. Cognitive development starts when developing from when we are born. It refers to how intelligence, conscious thought and problem solving develop from infancy. As well as improving the ability to think, learn and reason. Jean Piaget...
Words: 7676 - Pages: 31
...depending on how well it is perceived in our minds. Perhaps most concepts are components of theories or explanations. Unquestionably, changes of theory change concepts, and new concepts, or revisions of old ones, can alter theories. In psychology, concepts of mind must be developed or discovered, much as in physics, for we cannot see at all clearly into our own minds by introspection. So we need experiments in psychology; they sometimes suggest concepts far removed from common sense, or what we seem to be like. A concept is typically associated with a corresponding representation in a language or symbology; however, some concepts do not have a linguistic representation. The meaning of "concept" is explored in mainstream information science, cognitive science, metaphysics, and philosophy of the mind. A prototype on the other hand, is an early sample or model built to test a concept or process or to act as a thing to be replicated or learned from. Prototype is a term used in a variety of contexts, including semantics, design, electronics, and software programming. A prototype is created to test and experiment a new design to improve precision by system analysts and users. Prototyping helps to offer specifications for a real, working system rather than a theoretical one. They are handmade early versions of...
Words: 667 - Pages: 3
...Markets participants make decisions? How do these decisions affect the financial markets? With the financial markets in Asia being the largest in the world, such an interesting environment with participants displaying different levels of capitalism, financial market experience and knowledge, Asia is definitely a fertile ground for the study od behavioral finance. According to conventional financial theory, the world and its participants are, for the most part, rational "wealth maximizers". However, there are many instances where emotion and psychology influence our decisions, causing us to behave in unpredictable or irrational ways. Asians in general suffer from cognitive biases, more so than Westerners, often being viewed as ‘Gamblers. Behavioral finance is a relatively new field that seeks to combine behavioral and cognitive psychological theory with conventional economics and finance to provide explanations for why people make irrational financial decisions .It calls for investigation into higher mental processes, memory, perception, problem solving and thinking .This paper looks at some of the anomalies (i.e., irregularities) that conventional financial theories have failed to explain. In addition, review underlying reasons and biases that cause some people to behave irrationally. 2.- Brief survey of the literature The following areas of research have been covered, from the mid 1980’s to the main focus of the article(special edition 2008): Overreaction and Availability Bias...
Words: 899 - Pages: 4
...The results of the experiment have been argued to demonstrate the impressionability and obedience of people when provided with a legitimising ideology and social and institutional support. The experiment has also been used to illustrate cognitive dissonance theory and the power of authority. The results of the experiment favour situational attribution of behaviour rather than dispositional attribution. In other words, it seemed that the situation, rather than their individual personalities, caused the participants' behaviour. Under this interpretation, the results is that, ordinary people fulfilled orders to administer what appeared to be agonising and dangerous electric shocks to a confederate of the experiment. Power tactics are ways in which the individuals translate power bases into specific actions. In the experiment, people are using legitimacy, it is relying on your authority position or saying that a request accords with organisational policies or rules. In the experiment, Zimbardo said that people's behaviour changed under the environment of power and authority, the prisoners at first might not perfectly obey to what they were asked to do, however they started to obey what the guards say when the experiment went on, even though all participants know that they are not in a real prison situation. But the environment is too real that people started to think they are in a real prison, no matter it's the prisoners, or the guards. They follow the theory of power...
Words: 255 - Pages: 2
...ex-post. Not surprisingly, the activities of analysts have been a fertile ground for behavioral research. Prior studies have shown that analysts often suffer from a number of biases. However, the implications of these potential cognitive biases for investors and, even more so for managers, are less understood. This study considers the behavior of financial market participants from a perspective different from that of previous research. It focuses on anchoring bias, a topic that has been characterized by Hirshleifer (2001) as an important part of “dynamic psychology-based assetpricing theory in its infancy” (p. 1535). “Anchoring” describes the fact that, in forming numerical estimates of uncertain quantities, adjustments in assessments away from some initial value are often insufficient. One of the first studies of this cognitive bias is the seminal experiment by Kahneman and Tversky (1974). These authors report that estimates of an uncertain proportion (the percentage of African nations in the United Nations) were affected by a number between 0 and 100 that was determined by spinning a wheel of fortune in the subjects’ presence. Subsequent research (reviewed in Section 2) has confirmed the generality and the robustness of this cognitive bias. We hypothesize that market participants such as sell-side analysts and investors may also be affected by such anchoring bias when they estimate the future profitability of a firm. This estimation...
Words: 4553 - Pages: 19
