...In memory of Amos Tversky Contents Introduction Part I. Two Systems 1. The Characters of the Story 2. Attention and Effort 3. The Lazy Controller 4. The Associative Machine 5. Cognitive Ease 6. Norms, Surprises, and Causes 7. A Machine for Jumping to Conclusions 8. How Judgments Happen 9. Answering an Easier Question Part II. Heuristics and Biases 10. The Law of Small Numbers 11. Anchors 12. The Science of Availability 13. Availability, Emotion, and Risk 14. Tom W’s Specialty 15. Linda: Less is More 16. Causes Trump Statistics 17. Regression to the Mean 18. Taming Intuitive Predictions Part III. Overconfidence 19. The Illusion of Understanding 20. The Illusion of Validity 21. Intuitions Vs. Formulas 22. Expert Intuition: When Can We Trust It? 23. The Outside View 24. The Engine of Capitalism Part IV. Choices 25. Bernoulli’s Errors 26. Prospect Theory 27. The Endowment Effect 28. Bad Events 29. The Fourfold Pattern 30. Rare Events 31. Risk Policies 32. Keeping Score 33. Reversals 34. Frames and Reality Part V. Two Selves 35. Two Selves 36. Life as a Story 37. Experienced Well-Being 38. Thinking About Life Conclusions Appendix Uncertainty A: Judgment Under Appendix B: Choices, Values, and Frames Acknowledgments Notes Index Introduction Every author, I suppose, has in mind a setting in which readers of his or her work could benefit from having read it. Mine is the proverbial office watercooler, where opinions are shared and gossip is exchanged. I...
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...managing NOW! Gary Dessler Florida International University Jean Phillips Rutgers University Houghton Mifflin Company Boston New York To Samantha Vice President, Executive Publisher: George Hoffman Executive Sponsoring Editor: Lisé Johnson Senior Marketing Manager: Nicole Hamm Development Editor: Julia Perez Cover Design Manager: Anne S. Katzeff Senior Photo Editor: Jennifer Meyer Dare Senior Project Editor: Nancy Blodget Editorial Assistant: Jill Clark Art and Design Manager: Jill Haber Senior Composition Buyer: Chuck Dutton Cover photo credits Main image: © Bryan F. Peterson/CORBIS Lower left image: © Stockbyte/Getty Images Lower right image: © David Oliver/Getty Images Additional photo credits are listed on page 516. Copyright © 2008 by Houghton Mifflin Company. All rights reserved. No part of this work may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic or mechanical, including photocopying and recording, or by any information storage or retrieval system without the prior written permission of Houghton Mifflin Company unless such copying is expressly permitted by federal copyright law. Address inquiries to College Permissions, Houghton Mifflin Company, 222 Berkeley Street, Boston, MA 02116-3764. Printed in the U.S.A. Library of Congress Control Number: 2007924351 Instructor’s exam copy : ISBN-13: 978-0-618-83347-4 ISBN-10: 0-618-83347-1 For orders, use student text ISBNs: ISBN-13: 978-0-618-74163-2 ISBN-10: 0-618-74163-1 1 2 3 4 5 6 7...
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