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Consumer Durables

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21st April, 2010

Consumer Durables
The Indian consumer durables industry has witnessed a considerable change in the past couple of years. Changing lifestyle, higher disposable income coupled with greater affordability and a surge in advertising has been instrumental in bringing about a sea change in the consumer behavior pattern. This industry consists of durable goods used for domestic purposes such as televisions, washing machines, refrigerators, microwave ovens, mobile phones etc. The growth in the consumer durables sector has been driven primarily by factors such as the boom in the real estate & housing industry, higher disposable income, emergence of the retail industry in a big way coupled with rising affluence levels of a considerable section of the population. As per a survey conducted by FICCI on the Indian consumer durables industry, a shift in consumer preferences towards higher‐end, technologically advanced branded products has been quite discernable. This shift can be explained by narrowing differentials between the prices of branded and unbranded products added with the high quality of after sales service provided by the branded players. The shift has also been triggered by the availability of foreign branded products in India owing to lower import duties coupled with other liberal measures as introduced by the government. The Indian consumer durables industry can be segmented into three key groups
White goods Refrigerators Washing machines Air conditioners Speakers audio equipment Kitchen appliances/brown goods Consumer electronics Grinders Microwave ovens Irons Electric fans Cooking range Chimneys Mobile phones Televisions MP3 players DVD players VCD players

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21st April, 2010 Growth accelerates The demand for consumer durables is rising with increase in credit availability at finer rates and change in the lifestyle of the people Indian consumer durable sector is witnessing medium term recovery from 1.05% fall in FY 2007‐08 to 4.5% increase in FY 2008‐09, which has given way for impressive 25.5% rise in April‐Feb 2010. Infact, the sector witnessed single digit / negative growth in most of the months of FY 2007‐08 and reported double digit growth in only two months (July and September 2008) in FY 2008‐09. As against this, the sector reported double digit growth in all the 11 months of April to February 2010 of the current fiscal. Whatʹs more, the sector is consistently witnessing above 20% growth in each of the 8 months from July to February 2010. The consumer durables index recorded 29.89% growth in February 2010 compared with 5.78% increase in the same month last year. Due to the crisis last year we have seen fall in demand which resulted in nominal 4.50% growth for the year 2008‐09. However till February 2010 the index recorded 25.50% growth rate compared with 5.78% growth in April‐October 2008‐09. Trends in Index of Consumer Durables Production
Month Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar LQ. Oct ‐ Oct YTD. Apr ‐ Feb FY. Apr ‐ Mar Index = 100 in 1993‐94; n.a. = Not available / not applicable; Source: Central Statistical Organization 2009 ‐ 10 Index 415 442.5 435 489.1 491.8 553.5 509.7 510.1 494.5 514.9 536.3 n.a. 504.76 490.21 n.a. % Chg. 17.60 13.17 16.19 22.12 24.66 24.13 19.99 38.05 45.91 31.59 29.89 na 18.82 25.50 n.a. 2008 ‐ 09 Index 352.9 391 374.4 400.5 394.5 445.9 424.8 369.5 338.9 391.3 412.9 442.9 424.8 390.6 395 % Chg. 3.25 2.81 4.61 13.94 3.9 14.66 ‐1.64 0.3 ‐4.18 2.06 5.98 8.45 ‐1.64 5.78 4.5 2007 ‐ 08 Index 341.8 380.3 357.9 351.5 379.7 388.9 431.9 368.4 353.7 383.4 389.6 408.4 431.9 376 378 % Chg. 2.4 ‐0.65 ‐3.56 ‐2.66 ‐6.15 ‐7.27 8.96 ‐5.51 2.79 ‐0.54 3.1 ‐2.04 8.96 ‐1.39 ‐1.05

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21st April, 2010 Key consumer durables‐share by value

34%

30%

5% 13%

18%

Colour TVs

Re frige ra tors

Air Conditione rs

W a shing Ma chine

Othe rs

Growth of Consumer Electronics Production in India
450,000 400,000 350,000 300,000 250,000 200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 0 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 5 0 10.4 28.9 24.9 21.2 28.3 25.9 35 30 25 20 15 10

Production Rs. Cr

Growth %

Strong growth in production of alarm time pieces, A.C. single phase house service meters, electric fans, bicycles, passenger cars, motor cycles, refrigerators, two wheeler tyres, Television Receivers, metallic utencils, giant tyres, scooters and mopeds, Washing / laundry machines etc powered the consumer durable index. Over 45% of the weight of the consumer durable sector is for automobiles, tractors, bicycles and tyres and tubes thereof. Accordingly, the strong growth in the auto sector has powered the consumer durable sector. www.ghallabhansali.com 3

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21st April, 2010 BSE SENSEX v/s BSE CD (YTD returns chart)

BSE CD

BSE SENSEX

The key growth drivers for the Indian consumer durables industry: o Rise in disposable income: The demand for consumer electronics has been rising with the increase in disposable income coupled with more and more consumers falling under the double income families. The growing Indian middle class is an attraction for companies who are out there to woo them. o Availability of newer variants of a product: Consumers are spoilt for choice when it comes to choosing products. Newer variants of a product will help a company in getting the attention of consumers who look for innovation in products. o Product pricing: The consumer durables industry is highly price sensitive, making price the determining factor in increasing volumes, at least for lower range consumers. For middle and upper range consumers, it is the brand name, technology and product features that are important. o Availability of financing schemes: Availability of credit and the structure of the loan determine the affordability of the product. Sale of a particular product is determined by the cost of credit as much as the flexibility of the scheme. o Innovative advertising and brand promotion: Sales promotion measures such as discounts, free gifts and exchange offers help a company in distinguishing itself from others. o Festive season sales: Demand for colour TVs usually pick up during the festive seasons. As a result most companies come out with offers during this period to cash in on the festive mood. This period will continue to be the growth driver for consumer durable companies. www.ghallabhansali.com 4

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21st April, 2010 Major hurdles and challenges plaguing the Indian consumer durables sector: o Threat from new entrants, especially global companies: The domestic consumer durables sector faces threat from newer companies, especially from global ones who have technologically advanced products to offer. o Rivalry and competition: Presence of a large number of players in the domestic consumer durables industry leads to competition and rivalry among companies. Threat from rivalry and competition poses a threat to domestic companies. o Potential markets remaining yet untapped: A large segment of the domestic market, mostly the rural market is yet to be tapped. Tapping this yet untapped and unorganised market is a major challenge for the Indian consumer durables sector. o Threat from substitute products/services: The domestic consumer durables industry is plagued by threats from substitute products. Easy accessibility to theatres/multiplexes, especially in urban areas has turned off the viewership from TV to a large extent. With the advent of a horde of FM radio stations, radio sets have now substituted TVs. o Customer power with respect to availability of choice: The availability of a wide product line on account of most products being homogeneous, poses a threat for companies operating in the consumer durables sector. Customers have the choice of both domestically produced and imported goods, with similar features. Conclusion The supply side constraint has lead to sharp rally in agri commodity prices. So, though the rural income on 1999‐2000 prices have inched up by only 1.7% in the first half of the current fiscal, the cash flows of the rural income have improved at a brisker pace during this period, thanks to better credit flows, dispersion of income with increase in wage levels etc. Add to this, the increase in the wages, and payment of arrears, to Central Government employees, which is also being followed through by increases in Central PSUs, State Governments etc. Meanwhile, the appreciation of rupee, and the lower excise duties besides range bound costs of key inputs like steel, polymers etc have helped spur demand, as consumer durables are highly price elastic. Price elasticity refers to higher pace of increase in demand for every fall in prices. Slew of new product launches, series of festive offers and low interest regime together have only added cream to the growth in demand. So, on an overall basis, the consumer durable segment is on strong footing for delivering double‐digit growth in FY 2009‐10 after mere 4.5% growth in FY 2008‐09 and 1.05% fall in FY 2007‐08. www.ghallabhansali.com 5

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21st April, 2010 Company Prospects: Titan Industries Titan Industries is the worldʹs fifth largest and Indiaʹs leading manufacturer of watches. The company has manufactured more than a 100 million watches till date; and has a customer base of over 80 million. The umbrella brand Titan is one of Indiaʹs leading watch brands that brought about a paradigm shift in the Indian watch market, offering quartz technology with international styling. Today, the Titan portfolio has over 60% of the domestic market share in the organised watch market. The company has 247 exclusive showrooms christened World of Titanʹ, making it amongst the largest chains in its category backed by 700 after−sales−service centers. The company has a world−class design studio that constantly invents new trends in wrist watches. o Titan plans to add around 50,000 sq ft p.a. in its jewellery business in FY2011, implying around 15‐20 % space growth. This will be led by a combination of large and small format stores. o Similarly, in the watches division, along with expansion with multi‐ format stores, the company plans to add around 30‐40 new “World of Titan” stores in FY2011 translating into 12% space growth in the watches division. o Fast Track, the branded chain of retail stores of Titan Industries with products of watch, sunglasses, bags and belts etc has plans for adding 50 new stores by April 2010. The proposed small format stores will have carpet area of 400‐600 Sq Ft each with a capex of Rs 40‐50 lakh. Currently Fast Track currently has 13 stores offering in house designed products. The company eyes on major pie of the total branded accessories which was pegged at Rs 22500 crore with growth rate of 25%. Going ahead, the company expects revenues from fast track to grow by 25% to Rs 360 crore for FY10.
Particulars Sales OPM % PBDT PBT NP 1333.6 8.06 107.39 98.28 75.43 Quarter Ended Dec. 2009 Dec. 2008 1023.81 5.8 48.9 41.01 12.6 % Var. 30 39 120 140 499 Quarter Ended Sep. 2009 1146.8 9.43 106.26 97.36 77.6 Sep. 2008 1088.53 11.61 121.79 113.93 87.82 % Var. 5 ‐19 ‐13 ‐15 ‐12

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21st April, 2010 Videocon Industries Ltd An Indian multinational company, which involved in the key sectors of Consumer Durables, Display & Color Picture Tube, CRT Glass, Oil & Gas is named as Videocon Industries Limited. The Company was incorporated in 4th September of the year 1986 as Adhigam Trading Private Limited for the business of trading in paper tubes. For manufacture the products under the Videocon, the company have 8 plants situated in Tq‐ Paithan, Bhalgaon, Bangalore, Hosur, Kolkata, Maheshwaram Mand and Bharuch. To strengthen and maintain & its leadership status, the Videocon group has clearly charted out its course for the future. Aggressive development is in full swing at the R & D Centres to bring out state‐of‐the‐art technologies including True Flat, Slim, Extra Slim, Plasma & LCDs, at the earliest. In the Oil & Gas business, having all the basic operator capabilities of a prospecting entity, the group is looking to add more explorations and production depth as also oil‐ bearing assets. The group will also get into gas distribution in India significantly. o Videocon Industries is planning for manufacturing LCD panels and also LCD and flat televisions with inbuilt DTH set top boxes in its Taratola factory. However, the company plans to convert its Kolkatta manufacturing facility at Taratola into a hub for its D2H satellite TV in a long run. With a capex of Rs 120 crore, the company plans to roll out with 20,000 to 30,000 television sets with inbuilt set top box from this factory. o Videocon Industries signed a five‐year agreement with Philips Electronics NV to make and sell the century‐old Philips brand televisions in India. o Videocon is a new entrant to Direct to Home services (DTH). It has partnered with Irdeto for a modular Scalable Conditional access system and they have partnered with Tech Mahindra in IT space and IBM for technology support.
Particulars Sales OPM % PBDT PBT NP Quarter Ended Dec. 2009 2806.56 17.43 323.38 184.17 131.67 Dec. 2008 2074.67 18.71 244.58 106.56 60.43 % Var. 35 ‐7 32 73 118 Quarter Ended Sep. 2009 2621.24 19 343.9 204.26 149.26 Sep. 2008 2626.02 20.38 429.65 305.76 175.53 % Var. 0 ‐7 ‐20 ‐33 ‐15

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21st April, 2010 Blue Star Ltd Blue Star is Indiaʹs largest central airconditioning company with an annual turnover of Rs 2574 crores, a network of 29 offices, 5 modern manufacturing facilities, 700 dealers and around 2600 employees. Blue Star has business alliances with world renowned technology leaders such as Rheem Mfg Co, USA; Hitachi, Japan; Eaton ‐ Williams, UK; Thales e‐Security Ltd., UK; Jeol, Japan and many others, to offer superior products and solutions to customers. The Company has manufacturing facilities at Thane, Dadra, Bharuch, Himachal and Wada which use state‐of‐the‐art manufacturing equipment to ensure that the products have consistent quality and reliability. o Blue Star primarily focuses on the corporate and commercial markets. These include institutional, industrial and government organizations as well as commercial establishments such as showrooms, restaurants, banks, hospitals, theatres, shopping malls and boutiques. o Blue Star has tied up with Italy‐based Fruit Control to offer a gas‐based emission system, which is said to bring wastage to near zero. o Blue Star has managed a higher margin both at the operating and net profit levels when compared with Voltas in FY‐09. Blue Star’s operating margin was 10.8 per cent (9.3 per cent for Voltas) and PAT margin 7 per cent ( 6.2 per cent for Voltas). o The company has several big corporate clients which place repeated orders. At Rs 1,815 crore, the company’s order book stands at 17 per cent higher than the previous year. o Blue Star is also eyeing further off‐take from government‐related infra spends (such as the stadiums for Common Wealth Games) to boost its sales in the coming quarters. The company already has the Delhi Metro Rail Corporation and Tamil Nadu State Assembly’s orders on hand.
Quarter Ended Particulars Dec. 2009 Sales OPM % PBDT PBT NP 593.07 9.51 55.78 47.03 42.33 Dec. 2008 565.82 9.22 47.02 40.02 32.19 % Var. 5 3 19 18 32 Sep. 2009 563.04 11.54 66.99 58.32 49.44 Sep. 2008 645.63 10.69 65.76 59.63 44.95 % Var. ‐13 8 2 ‐2 10 Quarter Ended

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21st April, 2010 Whirlpool of India Limited Whirlpool of India Ltd is a leading manufacturer of home appliances. The company is primarily engaged in manufacturing and trading of Refrigerators, Washing Machines, Air Conditioners, Microwave Ovens and small appliances and caters to both domestic and international markets. They also provide services in the area of product development, information technology, accounting and procurement services to Whirlpool Corporation, USA and other group companies. The company owns three state‐of‐the‐art manufacturing facilities at Faridabad, Pondicherry and Pune. Each of these manufacturing set‐ups features an infrastructure that is witness of Whirlpoolʹs commitment to consumer interests and advanced technology. The company exports their product to Russia and East European countries and exports small appliances to the USA under the Kitchen Aid brand. o Net profit of Whirlpool of India rose 133.86% to Rs 16.16 crore in the quarter ended December 2009 as against Rs 6.91 crore during the previous quarter ended December 2008. Sales rose 24.02% to Rs 570.82 crore in the quarter ended December 2009 as against Rs 460.25 crore during the previous quarter ended December 2008.
Quarter Ended Particulars Dec. 2009 Sales OPM % PBDT PBT NP 570.82 5.71 35.95 26.9 16.16 Dec. 2008 460.25 4.71 19.84 10.05 6.91 % Var. 24 21 81 168 134 Sep. 2009 539.92 9.75 56.13 44.63 24.93 Sep. 2008 387.92 4.21 14.07 4.91 1.74 % Var. 39 132 299 809 1333 Quarter Ended

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21st April, 2010 Mahesh Babaria maheshb@ghallabhansali.com Mittal Chheda mittald@ghallabhansali.com Disclaimer:‐
This document has been prepared by Ghalla Bhansali Stock Brokers Pvt. Limited(Ghalla Bhansali ) . This document does not constitute an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. The information contained herein is from publicly available data or other sources believed to be reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete and it should not be relied on as such.Ghalla Bhansali or any of its affiliates/ group companies shall not be in any way responsible for any loss or damage that may arise to any person from any inadvertent error in the information contained in this report. This document is provided for assistance only and is not intended to be and must not alone be taken as the basis for an investment decision. The user assumes the entire risk of any use made of this information. Each recipient of this document should make such investigation as it deems necessary to arrive at an independent evaluation of an investment in the securities of companies referred to in this document (including the merits and risks involved), and should consult his own advisors to determine the merits and risks of such investment. The investment discussed or views expressed may not be suitable for all investors. This information is strictly confidential and is being furnished to you solely for your information. This information should not be reproduced or redistributed or passed on directly or indirectly in any form to any other person or published, copied, in whole or in part, for any purpose. This report is not directed or intended for distribution to, or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction, where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law, regulation or which would subject Ghalla Bhansali and affiliates/ group companies to any registration or licensing requirements within such jurisdiction. The distribution of this document in certain jurisdictions may be restricted by law, and persons in whose possession this document comes, should inform themselves about and observe, any such restrictions. The information given in this document is as of the date of this report and there can be no assurance that future results or events will be consistent with this information. This information is subject to change without any prior notice. Ghalla Bhansali reserves the right to make modifications and alterations to this statement as may be required from time to time. However, Ghalla Bhansali is under no obligation to update or keep the information current. Nevertheless, Ghalla Bhansali is committed to providing independent and transparent recommendation to its client and would be happy to provide any information in response to specific client queries. Neither Ghalla Bhansali nor any of its affiliates, group companies, directors, employees, agents or representatives shall be liable for any damages whether direct, indirect, special or consequential including lost revenue or lost profits that may arise from or in connection with the use of the information. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. The disclosures of interest statements incorporated in this document are provided solely to enhance the transparency and should not be treated as endorsement of the views expressed in the report. Ghalla Bhansali Stock Brokers Pvt. Limited generally prohibits its analysts, persons reporting to analysts and their family members from maintaining a financial interest in the securities or derivatives of any companies that the analysts cover. The analyst for this report certifies that all of the views expressed in this report accurately reflect his or her personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities, and no part of his or her compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly related to specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.

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