Country Risk Analysis
Germany

By: Matthew Duby 103805300
Brett Benson 103682527
Due: Monday, March 30th
Addressed to: Dr. Gunay

Table of Contents
Introduction……………………………………………………………………………………3-4
Supporting Information
How does Germany’s bond yields compare with other countries?………………….................4-5
What is the rating of Germany’s government bonds?…………………………………………5
What are Germany’s interest rates (short, intermediate, long-term)…………………………..6
Who are Germany’s top 3 trading partners? Are they the same for imports and exports?........6-7
What is Germany’s current account balance? Has it been a surplus in the past few years?......7
Why might Germany be running a surplus?...............................................................................7
Are their top three trading partners running a current account surplus or deficit?....................8
What is Germany’s population, GDP, unemployment, money supply growth and inflation rates?......8
Do you think interest rates in Germany are going to increase or decrease? Why?....................9
Do the trends have a positive or negative outlook?...................................................................9
Do you expect Germany’s exchange rate to appreciate or depreciate against the USD?..........10

Conclusion

With the acquired information, would you invest in Germany’s T-bills?..................................10
Was your hypothesis confirmed? What did you learn?..............................................................11

Appendix A: Exhibits

Exhibit 1: ECB Historical interest rates……………………………………………………….12
Exhibit 2: Money supply growth rates of Germany…………………………………………...12
Exhibit 3: Dax Index…………………………………………………………………………………13
Exhibit 4: Recent German current account balance…………………………………………...13
Exhibit 5: France current account balance…………………………………………………….14