...Country Risk Analysis Germany By: Matthew Duby 103805300 Brett Benson 103682527 Due: Monday, March 30th Addressed to: Dr. Gunay Table of Contents Introduction……………………………………………………………………………………3-4 Supporting Information How does Germany’s bond yields compare with other countries?………………….................4-5 What is the rating of Germany’s government bonds?…………………………………………5 What are Germany’s interest rates (short, intermediate, long-term)…………………………..6 Who are Germany’s top 3 trading partners? Are they the same for imports and exports?........6-7 What is Germany’s current account balance? Has it been a surplus in the past few years?......7 Why might Germany be running a surplus?...............................................................................7 Are their top three trading partners running a current account surplus or deficit?....................8 What is Germany’s population, GDP, unemployment, money supply growth and inflation rates?......8 Do you think interest rates in Germany are going to increase or decrease? Why?....................9 Do the trends have a positive or negative outlook?...................................................................9 Do you expect Germany’s exchange rate to appreciate or depreciate against the USD?..........10 Conclusion With the acquired information, would you invest in Germany’s T-bills?..................................10 Was your hypothesis confirmed? What did you learn?...........................
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...Running head: COUNTRY RISK AND STRATEGIC PLANNING ANALYSIS PAPER Country Risk and Strategic Planning Analysis Pa University of Phoenix Global Business Strategies MGT/445 January 11. 2009 Country Risk and Strategic Planning Analysis Paper The following paper analyzes the risks associated with starting a global business venture in the Philippines. The business is the manufacture and sale of FOY, an anti-aging supplement that will revolutionize the health and beauty industry. A strategic planning outline will be included to manage risks, clarify the organization’s objectives, and implement the successful introduction of this product to the global market. The Philippines have laws that require all foreign organizations to open an office in a domestic subsidiary, in a foreign representative office, or in a foreign branch office. A business license from the Philippines, registration of the business, who is part of different government agencies, and certification of incorporation, are also requirements for starting a business in the Philippines (Culangen, 2009). Projects and businesses in the Philippines are at risk of closure due to the high percentage of corruption, this, in turn, forces political parties to reduce the improvement and growth of infrastructures. The political issue of corruption has prevented the Philippines from gaining investors from other countries (Political and Risk Consultancy LTD., 2008). The low rate analysis of the islands...
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...Exercise country analysis and country risk Venezuela Hypump, a US company producing hydraulic pumps used in oil producing industry, likes to investigate the possibility of starting a new subsidiary in Venezuela, and asked you to make a country analysis and country risk report. The facts, key indicators and back ground information of Venezuela you found after research are presented in the Appendix. Use that information to answer the following questions: Moderate poverty and inequality have decreased from 1998 onwards due to the program called ‘Missiones’ according to the World bank (see appendix). 1. Use the fact sheet Venezuela whether this can be confirmed with figures. Assess: a. Level of development b. Income inequality 2. Assess Venezuela’s export structure. What is it based on? Use GDP and expenditure components for Q 3 and Q4 to assess Venezuela’s attractiveness from the table: 3. How can you see 2014 and 2015 are forecasts? 4. Characterize the phase of business cycle Venezuela has faced in 2013 and 2014 (Explain which key indicator(s) are used to answer the question) 5. Make a ‘first level analysis’ of the aggregate components of GDP to explain the economic (GDP) growth during 2013. 6. Explain the influence of imports on GDP in 2013. 7. Make a ‘second level’ analysis of the aggregate components of GDP to find some reason(s) for the movement of the various components. ‘The decrease...
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...Turkey Investment Risk Analysis Introduction Today Turkey is preserved as one of the countries that offer a solid ground for foreign investment. According to the Republic of Turkey Prime Ministry Investment Support and Promotion Agency [PMISPA] (2015), the inflow of Foreign Direct Investment [FDI] has reached 12.5 BUSD in 2014 and the amount of countries with foreign capital is constantly growing. While the biggest Turkey’s assets are mainly related to soil and population, a set of political reforms targeted to support the investment, the close possibility to join the EU contribute largely to growing interest of foreign investors. On the other hand, doing business in Turkey requires deeper understanding of local culture, people and their approach to business and life values in general. When making a business decision on whether to invest to Turkey, mainly economic, political and cultural factors shall be taken into consideration. Strategic location Turkey with an area of 784 mil km2 (Central Intelligence Agency [CIA], 2013) can boast about its geographical location of high strategic importance. The country is located on the crossroads of 3 continents and has borders with 8 countries, which opens unique business opportunities in Europe, Asia, the Middle East, the North Africa, Russia and CIC. In addition to that, the attractive Turkish coastlines have made Turkey the 6th most popular touristic destination in the world (PMISPA, 2015), which is one of the advantages when...
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...Country Risk Analysis: Philippines As trade barriers continue to fall and technological advances accelerate, the offshoring trend will continue as companies strive for operational efficiencies by outsourcing production and labor and taking advantage of capital markets. International business is not a new phenomenom, however the volume of international trade has increased dramatically over the last decade. Today, every nation and an increasing number of companies are investing abroad. Private and public investors must determine which countries offer the best prospects for sound investments. The decision to invest overseas begins with a determination of the riskiness of the investment climate in the country under consideration. In this paper we will evaluate the country risk analysis of investing in Philippines. The Philippines is the third-largest English speaking country in the world, enabling its manpower to have a unique edge over neighboring countries in terms of labor quality. Flanked by the Pacific Ocean and the South China Sea, its strategic location makes it a critical entry point to some 500 million people in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) market, offering vast trade opportunities, and an ideal base for business. It is also the best Asian country in terms of overall quality of expatriate life, considering its cultural compatibility with expatriates, housing, sporting and recreational facilities, quality healthcare, and first-rate educational institutions...
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...Country Risk and Strategic Planning Analysis TSI international consulting is a firm that provides services that support the United States and foreign businesses in globalization operations. TSI consulting international will be entering a 50/50 partnership with Setex consulting international, a Romanian integral investment company that provides tailored expert business services for global and national businesses who wish to extend business to the Romanian market and other foreign countries. TSI international partnerships with Romania will help develop the country's weak rural agricultural infrastructure. By providing 50% of the capital the government will have a vested interest in firm’s success. Our company will provide modern agricultural training techniques and machinery to the rural area citizens of Romania. The bigger strategy will be to drive revenue through export to the Eastern European region and eventually the members of the European Union. As a country that was previously a communist nation the minds of rural citizens will easily buy into the strategy where they see clear authority and a mode to enhance their standard of living. Launching a global joint venture can present a generous amount of risks that require analysis. The potential risks of TSI consulting opening and maintaining a partnership business venture in Romania with global ambitions will be vast and complex. To begin, TSI international will analyze numerous categories of risks ranging from legal to financial...
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...Country Risk and Strategic Planning Analysis Paper University of Phoenix MGT/448 Kathryn Hayman December 19, 2011 Team C has decided to conduct a country risk analysis for the country of Mexico. The selected business venture is about laptop computers. When it comes to global business ventures there also comes a great amount of risks. In the following paragraphs is an analysis of the following risks; political, legal, and regulatory risks, exchange and repatriation of funds risks, competitive risk assessment, taxation and double taxation risks, market risks, distribution and supply chain risks, physical and environmental challenges to entering and operating in a target market, social and cultural risks, and cyber or technology risks. A description of how these risks would be managed and a summary of the strategic planning process will be explained. Mexico has a moderate political risk according to AM Bests Country risk report. Mexico ties with large, developed countries that are very strong has help them in this aspect when it comes to their political risk. NAFTA North American Fair Trade Agreement also helps in this respect since it is now one of the largest free trade areas. This agreement was established between the Unites States, Canada, and Mexico and became effective on January 1, 1994. This alliance has brought economic growth and rising standards to the citizens of these three countries. There are many advantages of NAFTA, being that it has created...
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...When we look at the terms of risk reduction and hazard control we get the terms of eliminating and reducing the issues. Where control of hazards seek to maintain instead of removing the process. The term that risk reduction is applied to is a complete understanding of the intent of the criterion to ty risk- reducing the probability of the events occurring. In the terms of the second and third definitions of risk because they include both the probability of the event and the severity of the harmful consequences. Risk reduction is a term that capture the fundamental concept that harmful events consist of the three phases. Jensen, R. C. (2012). Risk-Reduction Methods: For Occupational Safety and Health (1st e A physical model is one that thing would be (like if you were creating a model of say a building, park, airplane or other large structure or area), sometimes it's actual size if it is small enough. You build or have built that you can touch. Sometimes it is a miniature version of what the real. What I mean by physical models is those that are meant to represent the physical world, as opposed to – for example – biomechanical, or computers models. Jensen, R. C. (2012). Risk-Reduction Methods: For Occupational Safety and Health (1st ed.). Whenever you are planning or one have to deal with risk and hazards we should looking in to the process from the beginning to the end. Where do we want to be at this point in the project as...
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...Risk Factor Analysis— A New Qualitative Risk Management Tool John P. Kindinger, Probabilistic Risk and Hazards Analysis Group, Los Alamos National Laboratory John L. Darby, Probabilistic Risk and Hazards Analysis Group, Los Alamos National Laboratory Introduction Project risk analysis, like all risk analyses, must be implemented using a graded approach; that is, the scope and approach of the analysis must be crafted to fit the needs of the project based on the project size, the data availability, and other requirements of the project team. Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) has developed a systematic qualitative project risk analysis technique called the Risk Factor Analysis (RFA) method as a useful tool for early, preconceptual risk analyses, an intermediate-level approach for medium-size projects, or as a prerequisite to a more detailed quantitative project risk analysis. This paper introduces the conceptual underpinnings of the RFA technique, describes the steps involved in performing the analysis, and presents some examples of RFA applications and results. project activity flow chart to help organize the RFA. The flow chart defines the tasks to be modeled and their interrelationships for the project schedule analysis. WBS and schedule tasks may be consolidated and/or expanded to explicitly highlight those tasks and influences that are expected to have a significant technical risk and/or significant uncertainty in schedule or cost performance. The flow chart is developed...
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...struggling to understand what the threats to their information assets are and how to obtain the necessary means to combat them which continues to pose a challenge. The ISF’s Information Risk Analysis Methodology (IRAM) enables organizations to access business information risk and select the right set of security controls to mitigate that risk. IRAM2 Founded in 1989, the Information Security Forum (ISF) is an independent, not-for-profit association of leading organizations from around the world. It is dedicated to investigating, clarifying and resolving key issues in cyber, information security and risk management by developing best practice methodologies, processes and solutions that meet the business needs of its Members. ISF aims its products at large public and private sector organizations, and produces an annually updated Standard of Good Practice for Information Security. This approach has three phases: a business impact assessment which determines the security requirements of the business, a threat and vulnerability assessment, and control selection. IRAM2 is a simple, practical yet rigorous business essential that helps ISF Members identify, analyze and treat information risk throughout the organization. The standard and its related tools, which must be purchased from ISF, make for a thorough risk management package. The price of the materials includes user guides and attendance at some ISF events....
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...Latin America is quite a preferable location for auto manufacturers. Countries like Brazil, Argentina and Mexico are well known for manufacturing automobiles. As a Chinese automobile company who wants to set up their operation in Latin America, several major factors must be considered while selecting the country. Some of the factors which are considered when deciding on which country to invest are as follows: A. Infrastructure: Latin America lags behind in terms of infrastructure. This is a disadvantage for Latin America since it has a negative implication on its production and foreign direct investment. The proportion of paved roads in Latin America is comparatively low. i) Brazil: Brazil, the biggest economy in Latin America is ranked 104 in 2014 according to the “Global Competitiveness Report” by the World Economic Forum. This significantly increases the set up costs for new firms. ii) Argentina: Argentina lags even further behind Brazil in terms of infrastructure according to “Global Competitiveness Report” by the World Economic Forum published in 2014. This makes Argentina unsuitable for setting up new subsidiary. iii) Mexico: Mexico is ranked 73rd in the “Global Competitiveness Report” published in 2014, by the World Economic Forum. This shows Mexico is better in terms of infrastructure than Brazil and Argentina. Hence, Mexico will be the better choice compared to the other two countries. B. Barriers to Entry: Foreign Direct Investment has increased...
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...Country Analysis for an Emerging Market: The Indian Example Haoran BI Country Analysis for an Emerging Market: The Indian Example Abstract: The Beta Country Risk Model, as described by Erb, Harvey and Viskanta (1996) and used by Andrade and Teles (2004) for Brazil, is used to estimate the country risk of India based on several macroeconomic indicators. Ordinary least squares regression is run on the white noise (unexpected component) of these variables to explain the variation in country risk to identify the most relevant of these variables. The study shows that the variation in country risk of India is highly correlated with changes in FDI flows, interest rates (monetary policy), exchange rates and the unemployment rate. The effect of political risk on overall country risk is also studied. Key words: country risk, country beta model, risk modeling 1. Introduction Globalization and increasing financial unification has led to a rapid growth of international lending, foreign direct and institutional investment. With this, economies across the globe are increasingly becoming interdependent and developments in one part of the world affect returns in another. Given this, country risk analysis provides insights into that part of the risk of an investment specific to a certain country. “Country Risk”, in general refers to the risk associated with those factors that determine or affect the ability and willingness of a sovereign state or borrower from a particular country...
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...parts: 1. Introduction 2. Comprehensive Analysis Outline 3. Regional Analysis: Regional Alliances and Economic Integration 4. Regional Analysis: Physical Environment and Its Effect on Trade 5. Regional Analysis: Political Stability 6. Regional Analysis: Economic Conditions 7. Regional Analysis: Finance Options Available 8. Regional Analysis: Social, Health, and Environmental Conditions 9. Regional Analysis: Terrorism Threats 10. Country Analysis: Political Stability 11. Country Analysis: Economic Conditions 12. Country Analysis: Finance Options Available 13. Country Analysis: Physical Environment and Its Effect on Trade 14. Country Analysis: Social, Health, and Environmental Conditions 15. Country Analysis: Cultural Considerations 16. Organization and Product or Service Analysis: Description of the Organization 17. Organization and Product or Service Analysis: Product Needs Assessment 18. Organization and Product or Service Analysis: Description of Product to Meet the Need 19. Country Risk and Strategic Planning Analysis 20. Political, Legal, and Regulatory Risks 21. Exchange and Repatriation of Funds Risks 22. Competitive Risk Assessment 23. Taxation and Double Taxation Risks 24. Market Risks: - Product - Price - Place - Promotion 25. Distribution and Supply Chain Risks 26. Physical and Environmental Challenges 27. Social and Cultural Risks 28. Cyber/Technology 29. Managing Risks 30. Mission and Objectives 31. SWOTT Analysis of Target Country 32. Strategic Selection 33. Appropriate...
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...parts: 1. Introduction 2. Comprehensive Analysis Outline 3. Regional Analysis: Regional Alliances and Economic Integration 4. Regional Analysis: Physical Environment and Its Effect on Trade 5. Regional Analysis: Political Stability 6. Regional Analysis: Economic Conditions 7. Regional Analysis: Finance Options Available 8. Regional Analysis: Social, Health, and Environmental Conditions 9. Regional Analysis: Terrorism Threats 10. Country Analysis: Political Stability 11. Country Analysis: Economic Conditions 12. Country Analysis: Finance Options Available 13. Country Analysis: Physical Environment and Its Effect on Trade 14. Country Analysis: Social, Health, and Environmental Conditions 15. Country Analysis: Cultural Considerations 16. Organization and Product or Service Analysis: Description of the Organization 17. Organization and Product or Service Analysis: Product Needs Assessment 18. Organization and Product or Service Analysis: Description of Product to Meet the Need 19. Country Risk and Strategic Planning Analysis 20. Political, Legal, and Regulatory Risks 21. Exchange and Repatriation of Funds Risks 22. Competitive Risk Assessment 23. Taxation and Double Taxation Risks 24. Market Risks: - Product - Price - Place - Promotion 25. Distribution and Supply Chain Risks 26. Physical and Environmental Challenges 27. Social and Cultural Risks 28. Cyber/Technology 29. Managing Risks 30. Mission and Objectives 31. SWOTT Analysis of Target Country 32. Strategic Selection 33. Appropriate...
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...Investment and Country Risk: What kind of Interaction?” Supervisor: Professor D. Kyrkilis Stavroula Samara stav_samara@windowslive.com Foreign Direct Investment and Country Risk Table of Contents Abstract…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….4 Introduction………………………………………………………………………………………………………………4 Foreign Direct Investment…………………………………………………………………………………………6 The Definition……………………………………………………………………………………………………………6 The Types………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….8 The Multinational Corporations………………………………………………………………………………..9 The Effects………………………………………………………………………………………………………………11 The Final Remarks…………………………………………………………………………………………………..13 Country Risk……………………………………………………………………………………………………………14 The Definition………………………………………………………………………………………………………….15 Various approaches of the literature on country risk (table)……………………………………17 The Historical Background………………………………………………………………………………………17 Country Risk Types and Measurements…………………………………………………………………..18 The Factors……………………………………………………………………………………………………………..22 Country Risk Assessment…………………………………………………………………………………………23 Risk Measures (table)………………………………………………………………………………………………25 The Methods…………………………………………………………………………………………………………..27 How does Country Risk matter for FDI?.......................................................................29 FDI and Country Risk: A Research……………………………………………………………………………33 The Data…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………33 2 Foreign Direct Investment and Country Risk The Concept...
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