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Credit Risk and Spanish Bank Crisis

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Now, I will introduce the link between this article and the lecture topic of credit risk.At first, we need to know the definition of credit risk to help understanding the following information. Credit risk refers to the risk that a borrower will default on any type of debt by falling to make payments which it is obligated to do. (ppt)
So, let’s consider what is the main reason that causes the troubles in Spain’s banks? Actually, it is the collapse of the real estate bubble that dragged the Spanish banks into the quagmire. So, what is real estate bubble? Real estate bubble is a type of economic bubble that occurs periodically in local or global real estate markets. It is characterized by rapidly increases in valuation of real property such as housing until they reach unsustainable levels and then decline. (ppt)
What are the reasons behind the fact of the collapse of real estate bubble and what are the effects of that?
First of all, the economic downturn is the catalyst of the real estate bubble burst. (ppt)The average annual growth of houses in Spain was about 10% from late 1997 to early 2008. In some years, the growth rate even reached 20%. Land prices rose by 5 times.(ppt: Spanish house prices) Due to the over optimistic estimate of real estate and banking industry, the Spanish banking sector took the real estate loans as the high quality credit. Up to 2009, real estate loans issued by Spanish financial industry have reached 445 billion euro dollars. However, after the global financial crisis, the economy which originally driven by the real estate was bogged down immediately and the smashing housing market disappeared in just one night. (ppt)The fact shows the failure of credit risk measurement and management. Credit risk management is very important as it helps to make an informed judgment on the probability of default of the borrower and price the loan or debt correctly in order to reduce the risk of losing assets or impacting business reputation. (ppt) In order to do good credit risk management, 2 factors need to be take into consideration. The first one is the borrower-specific factors which include reputation, leverage, volatility of earnings, covenant and collateral. The second factor is the market-specific factors including business cycle and interest rate levels. (ppt)The most obvious fault of Spanish banks is that they did not consider the downturn position carefully which result in banks and the government can’t replenish the capital as too large amount of default on real estate loans by private borrowers.
Secondly, it is risky to stimulate economic growth through real estate.(ppt) Over encourage the development of real estate sector; the result for sure is the loss of competitiveness of its industrial entities. A sharp rise in housing prices encourages people investing in real estate, and then it reduces the amount to invest in industrial production which hollowed out the real economy. The labor market is being depression gradually. After the crisis, inflation occurs and housing prices decline sharply. Spanish banks want their money lent out as real estate loans back so they kept pushing the borrowers. This can be see clearly from the difficult situations of small to medium companies owners in the article. Just as Mr Moreno said "his bankers closed his roughly $250000 credit line step by step, imposing harsh repayment plans and effectively strangling his young business". (ppt)However, as the overall economic environment is in depression and unemployment rate reaches 24%, people can’t afford the repayment. The direct effect of credit risk is default of repayment which results in and a large amount of bad debt left to the banks. According to the figure released by central bank, the ratio of bad loans held by Spanish banks, mainly for property, hit in May the highest level since 1994, at 8.95%. The figure has been steadily rising this year, from 8.15% in February to 8.37% and 8.72%in the subsequent two months. (ppt from web: Spain banks’ bad loans hit new high ratio: central bank)
Finally, there is a crisis transmission mechanism in real estate bubble. (ppt)Since 2008 global financial crisis, the real estate bubble burst. It was started by the breach of contract by the borrowers and then transmitted to the banking crisis. So the Spanish government immediately aid for the banking industry. The direct effect is the rise of government debt as the government needed to borrow to fill in the debt gap. Finally, the original financial crisis evolves into a sovereign debt crisis. Moody's recently downgraded more than a dozen Spanish banks, including the two largest. The negative rating outlooks for nine Spanish banks reflect Moody's expectation that banks will continue to face highly adverse operating and market funding conditions that pose a threat to their creditworthiness.

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