...Published in Graham J. Hooley and Michael K. Hussey (Eds.), Quantitative Methods in Marketing, Second Edition. London: International Thompson Business Press, 1999, pp. 92-119. Forecasting for Marketing J. Scott Armstrong The Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania Roderick J. Brodie Department of Marketing, University of Auckland Research on forecasting is extensive and includes many studies that have tested alternative methods in order to determine which ones are most effective. We review this evidence in order to provide guidelines for forecasting for marketing. The coverage includes intentions, Delphi, role playing, conjoint analysis, judgmental bootstrapping, analogies, extrapolation, rule-based forecasting, expert systems, and econometric methods. We discuss research about which methods are most appropriate to forecast market size, actions of decision makers, market share, sales, and financial outcomes. In general, there is a need for statistical methods that incorporate the manager's domain knowledge. This includes rule-based forecasting, expert systems, and econometric methods. We describe how to choose a forecasting method and provide guidelines for the effective use of forecasts including such procedures as scenarios. INTRODUCTION Forecasting has long been important to marketing practitioners. For example, Dalrymple (1987), in his survey of 134 U.S. companies, found that 99 percent prepared formal forecasts when they used formal marketing plans. In Dalrymple (1975)...
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...Overview Hypercalcemia is the most common life-threatening metabolic disorder associated with neoplastic diseases, occurring in an estimated 10% to 20% of all adults with cancer. It also occurs in children with cancer, but with much less frequency (approximately 0.5%–1%).[1-3] Solid tumors (such as lung or breast cancer tumors) as well as certain hematologic malignancies (particularly multiple myeloma) are most frequently associated with hypercalcemia.[4] Although early diagnosis followed by hydration and treatment with agents that decrease serum calcium concentrations (hypocalcemic drugs) can produce symptomatic improvements within a few days, diagnosis may be complicated because symptoms may be insidious at onset and can be confused with those of many malignant and nonmalignant diseases. However, diagnosis and timely interventions not only are lifesaving in the short term but also may enhance the patient’s compliance with primary and supportive treatments and may improve quality of life.[5] When a patient has a refractory, widely disseminated malignancy for which specific therapy is no longer being pursued, the patient may want to consider withholding therapy for hypercalcemia. For patients or families who have expressed their wishes regarding end-of-life issues, this may represent a preferred timing and/or mode of death (as compared with a more prolonged death from advancing metastatic disease). This option is best considered long before the onset of severe hypercalcemia or...
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...Contents Preface Acknowledgments Introduction 1 BRAIN POWER Myth #1 Most People Use Only 10% of Their Brain Power Myth #2 Some People Are Left-Brained, Others Are Right-Brained Myth #3 Extrasensory Perception (ESP) Is a Well-Established Scientific Phenomenon Myth #4 Visual Perceptions Are Accompanied by Tiny Emissions from the Eyes Myth #5 Subliminal Messages Can Persuade People to Purchase Products 2 FROM WOMB TO TOMB Myth #6 Playing Mozart’s Music to Infants Boosts Their Intelligence Myth #7 Adolescence Is Inevitably a Time of Psychological Turmoil Myth #8 Most People Experience a Midlife Crisis in | 8 Their 40s or Early 50s Myth #9 Old Age Is Typically Associated with Increased Dissatisfaction and Senility Myth #10 When Dying, People Pass through a Universal Series of Psychological Stages 3 A REMEMBRANCE OF THINGS PAST Myth #11 Human Memory Works like a Tape Recorder or Video Camera, and Accurate Events We’ve Experienced Myth #12 Hypnosis Is Useful for Retrieving Memories of Forgotten Events Myth #13 Individuals Commonly Repress the Memories of Traumatic Experiences Myth #14 Most People with Amnesia Forget All Details of Their Earlier Lives 4 TEACHING OLD DOGS NEW TRICKS Myth #15 Intelligence (IQ) Tests Are Biased against Certain Groups of People My th #16 If You’re Unsure of Your Answer When Taking a Test, It’s Best to Stick with Your Initial Hunch Myth #17 The Defining Feature of Dyslexia Is Reversing Letters Myth #18 Students Learn Best When Teaching Styles Are Matched to...
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...ANNOTATED SELECTED BIBLIOGRAPHY FOR HISTORICAL INTERPRETATIONS OF THE INDUSTRIAL REVOLUTION IN BRITAIN Gerard M Koot History Department University of Massachusetts Dartmouth Allen, Robert C., The British Industrial Revolution in a Global Perspective, New York: Cambridge University Press, 2009. Pp. viii, 331. Allen’s book is an excellent example of the persuasiveness of the new economic history. It is solidly rooted in statistical data and uses sophisticated methods of economic analysis but its analysis is presented in plain English. He argues that the first industrial revolution occurred in northwestern Europe because its high wages during the early modern period encouraged technological innovation. Although high wages were initially a consequence of the demographic disaster of the Black Death, they were reinforced during the early modern period by the economic success of the region around the North Sea, first, in European trade and manufacturing, especially in wresting the textile industry from the Italians, and then in world trade. According to Allen, the first industrial revolution took place in Britain instead of the Low Countries primarily because of Britain’s abundant and cheap coal resources, combined with the central government’s ability to use mercantilist policies and naval power to reap the greatest benefits from an expanding European and world trade. Once it had taken the lead from the Dutch, and defeated the French, Britain used its comparative advantage...
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...Expatriates in China Experiences, Opportunities and Challenges Ilaria Boncori ISBN: 9781137293473 DOI: 10.1057/9781137293473 Palgrave Macmillan Please respect intellectual property rights This material is copyright and its use is restricted by our standard site license terms and conditions (see palgraveconnect.com/pc/connect/info/terms_conditions.html). If you plan to copy, distribute or share in any format, including, for the avoidance of doubt, posting on websites, you need the express prior permission of Palgrave Macmillan. To request permission please contact rights@palgrave.com. Expatriates in China Experiences, Opportunities and Challenges Ilaria Boncori Expatriates in China 10.1057/9781137293473 - Expatriates in China, Ilaria Boncori Copyright material from www.palgraveconnect.com - licensed to University of Wollongong - PalgraveConnect - 2014-05-17 This page intentionally left blank 10.1057/9781137293473 - Expatriates in China, Ilaria Boncori Copyright material from www.palgraveconnect.com - licensed to University of Wollongong - PalgraveConnect - 2014-05-17 Expatriates in China Experiences, Opportunities and Challenges Ilaria Boncori University of Essex, UK Copyright material from www.palgraveconnect.com - licensed to University of Wollongong - PalgraveConnect - 2014-05-17 10.1057/9781137293473 - Expatriates in China, Ilaria Boncori © Ilaria Boncori 2013 Foreword © Heather Höpfl 2013 All rights reserved. No reproduction...
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...Context and Consequence THOMAS REGINALD (Tom) ROWLES B.Ec (Hons), Dip.Ed (Monash) A THESIS SUBMITED FOR THE DEGREE OF DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY IN THE SCHOOL OF ACCOUNTING AND LAW OF RMIT UNIVERSITY, MELBOURNE, VICTORIA, AUSTRALIA ii DECLARATION I certify that: Except where due acknowledgement has been made, this thesis is mine alone; and The work has not been submitted previously, in whole or part, to qualify for any other academic award; and The content of the thesis is the result of work that has been carried out since the official commencement date of the approved research programme. THOMAS R. ROWLES iii TABLE OF CONTENTS Chapter Introduction 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.9 Introduction Purpose of the Study Sombart’s Hypothesis An Alternative Model; Entrepreneurial Decision-making Context: The Industrial Revolution and ‘Profit’ The Changing Nature of ‘Investment’ The Great Depression of 1873-96 Intellectual Introspection Irving Fisher and the Conception of Capital and Income 17 17 17 23 25 26 30 32 34 34 35 36 38 38 38 39 43 46 49 50 51 54 55 1.10 Research Issues Identified 1.11 Summary Derivation of Research Issues 2.1 2.2 Introduction Evidence from Extant Accounts 2.2.1 Fixed Assets in Mercantile Accounting 2.2.2 The East India Company 2.2.3 Fixed Assets and Early Industrial Accounting 2.2.4 Capital Asset Accounting After 1870 2.2.4.i Renewal Accounting 2.2.4.ii Double-Account System 2.2.4.iii A Rejected Hypothesis 2.3 Steam and Iron:...
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...Handbook of Management Accounting Research Volume 3 Edited by CHRISTOPHER S. CHAPMAN Imperial College London, UK ANTHONY G. HOPWOOD University of Oxford, UK MICHAEL D. SHIELDS Michigan State University, USA AMSTERDAM – BOSTON – HEIDELBERG – LONDON – NEW YORK – OXFORD PARIS – SAN DIEGO – SAN FRANCISCO – SINGAPORE – SYDNEY – TOKYO Elsevier The Boulevard, Langford Lane, Kidlington, Oxford OX5 1GB, UK First edition 2009 Copyright © 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or transmitted in any form or by any means electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise without the prior written permission of the publisher Permissions may be sought directly from Elsevier’s Science & Technology Rights Department in Oxford, UK: phone ( 44) (0) 1865 843830; fax ( 44) (0) 1865 853333; email: permissions@elsevier.com. Alternatively visit the Science and Technology Books website at www.elsevierdirect.com/rights for further information Notice No responsibility is assumed by the publisher for any injury and/or damage to persons or property as a matter of products liability, negligence or otherwise, or from any use or operation of any methods, products, instructions or ideas contained in the material herein. British Library Cataloguing in Publication Data A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data A catalog record for...
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...12:06 Page 1 WOMEN, GENDER AND WORK People are not defined solely by their work, nor is it possible to ignore the effects of factors outside the workplace on a person's status at work. To seek equality at work without seeking equality in the larger society – and at home – is illusory.Thus an examination of the issues surrounding women, gender and work must be holistic. That means considering the role of productive work in life as a whole and the distribution of unpaid work as well as the myriad questions relating to employment. This important anthology brings together the thinking of leading philosophers, economists and lawyers on this complex subject. Selected recent articles from the multidisciplinary International Labour Review are assembled for the first time to illuminate questions such as how we should define equality, what equal opportunity means and what statistics tell us about differences between men and women at work, how the family confronts globalization and what is the role of law in achieving equality. There is an examination of policy – to deal with sexual harassment and wage inequality, for example, as well as part-time work, the glass ceiling, social security, and much more. A major reference on the best of current research and analysis on gender roles and work. Martha Fetherolf Loutfi has been Editor-in-Chief of the International Labour Review, a Senior Economist for the Brandt Commission and in the ILO’s Employment and Development...
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...The Power of Eye Contact Your Secret for Success in Business, Love, and Life Michael Ellsberg For Jena May I gaze into your eyes forever . . . los ojos . . . mudas lenguas de amorios. ( . . . the eyes, silent tongues of love.) —MIGUEL DE CERVANTES, from Don Quijote1 Contents Cover Title Page Epigraph A Note to Readers Introduction Chapter One - What Bill Clinton Knows About Eye Contact Chapter Two - How to Become a Master of Eye Chapter Three - Eye Flirting, Part I Chapter Four - Eye Flirting, Part II Chapter Five - The Eyes Are the Windows to the Sale Chapter Six - How to Wow a Crowd with Eye Contact Chapter Seven - If Looks Could Kill Chapter Eight - Truth and Eyes Chapter Nine - Eye Love You Chapter Ten - Gazing at the Divine Chapter Eleven - Going Deeper Epilogue Ralph Waldo Emerson on Eyes and Eye Contact Notes Works Cited Interviewees Free Bonus Material for Readers Acknowledgments About the Author Advance Praise for The Power of Eye Contact Copyright About the Publisher A Note to Readers I welcome your comments, questions, critiques, feedback, corrections, stories, experiences, and anecdotes. Please write to me at michael@powerofeyecontact.com. I won’t answer everything personally, but I will read it all and will answer the most interesting questions and queries. I may also post your questions, stories, or anecdotes on the book’s blog, www.powerofeyecontact.com/blog. So when you write, let me know if you’re OK with that, and if so, how you’d...
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