INTRODUCTION
To value the business we need to forecast some or all of the following depending upon which model of valuation we intend to use: dividends, future free cash flows, earnings per share, EVA which itself requires NOPAT and the Balance Sheet. Note that even if we are interested in cash flows we will usually forecast these using the indirect method rather than the direct method because the basic building blocks of profitability, growth, investment and financing are more readily framed in terms of accrual based accounting and moreover corporate tax is profit based – ultimately we are interested in the prospects for profitability. We should use at least two methods of valuation to value a company and in any one method look to undertake some sensitivity analysis or scenario analysis.
The forecasting should be comprehensive and be conditional upon the corporate and business strategy, the accounting analysis and the financial analysis. Importantly, the forecasts should impound the evidence on key financial variables such as sales growth, EPS over time and ROE over time.EVIDENCE ON SALES GROWTH AND EARNINGS
We begin with some evidence which is useful in the context of a forecast. But do remember this is what occurs on average. If the forecast is largely at variance from the evidence then this will need explaining within the context of the business strategy or the accounting. In addition if strategy or accounting changes we need to assess the consequences for the forecast. Accounting is constantly changing so this needs to be incorporated into the condensed statements. Sometimes it will be largely insignificant but at other times – pensions – it is significant. Most of the changes will reduce the bottom line profit regardless of any other changes unless we know about a “strategy” that will alleviate the problem – e.g. pension