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Current Economic Expansion

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U.S. economic growth has been positive during 25 of the past 26 quarters. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) declared that the recession that began in March 2001 ended in November 2001. As of the first quarter 2008, U.S. real GDP (measured in 2000 dollars) was about 18% above its recession low point in the third quarter 2001, and had grown about 20% from its previous high near theend of the 1991-2001 expansion. According to the most recent GDP report, growth in the second quarter of 2008 was at an annual rate of 1.9% up from 0.9% in the first quarter. During the four quarters of 2007, the annualized quarterly rates were 0.1%, 4.8%, 4.8%, and -0.2%. During the four quarters of 2006, the quarterly rates were 4.8%, 2.4%, 1.1%, and 2.1%. Growth excluding inventories during the first quarter of 2008 was positive at an annual rate of 0.7.
The rise in payroll employment peaked in December 2007. Since then, it was dropped by some 500,000. The unemployment rate is also on the rise and it July stood at 5.7%, up from an expansion low of 4.4% first reached in October 2006 and 4.5% in May 2007. Over the past 18 months, the unemployment rate has varied between 4.4% and 5.5%. These rates are still above the 3.8% low of the 1990s expansion.
Measured or headline inflation has accelerated. As measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI) it rose 5.6% for the 12 months ended in July 2008 compared with 2.5% during 2006 and 3.4% in 2005. The rise in the core rate for the 12 months ending in July, which excludes food and energy prices, was 2.5%. The broadest measure of inflation for the economy, the GDP price index, rose at an annual rate of 2.6% and 1.1% over the first two quarters of 2008, compared with 2.7% over

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