...of workers, the organization's HR staff develop specific programs to reconcile the differences between the requirement for labour in various employment categories and its availability, both internally and in the organization's environment. Programs in such areas as training and development, career planning, recruitment and selection, managerial appraisal, and so on are all stimulated by means of the HR forecasting process. II. Forecasting Activity Categories Forecasting activity can be subdivided into three categories: • transaction-based forecasting, • event-based forecasting, and • process-based forecasting. # Transaction-based forecasting analyses focus on tracking internal change instituted by the organization's managers. # Event-based forecasting is concerned with change in the external environment. # Process-based forecasting is not focused on a specific internal organizational event but on the flow or sequencing of several work activities (e.g., the warehousing shipping process). All three categories are important if we are to have a comprehensive method for ascertaining our HR requirements. Forecasting is only an approximation of possible future states and is an activity that strongly favours quantitative and easily codified techniques. As such, it is important that an explicit effort be made to obtain and incorporate qualitative data into our analyses....
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... |Submitted 18th November 2011 | | |Client Name:BHC | |Executive summary |Scenario One: Financial Investment Advise| |The current investment market is a hazardous environment for all stakeholders involved as a result of | | |recovering investor confidence post-global financial crisis (GFC) and with the possible effects of the | | |European credit crisis. It is therefore essential to analyse current expert opinion, economic factors and | | |interest rate forecasts when selecting an optimal investment strategy. Vision Finance provides this | | |analyses and a specified expert opinion for BHC given their current need for investment of funds in the | | |Australian money and debt capital markets within this report. | | Table of Contents Executive Summary ................................................................................................................ 1 1. Introduction...
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...and Forecasting Instructor Corrigan Feb. 7th, 2010 Impacts on Forecasting Identify a minimum of three current environmental conditions that would impact the preparation of a forecast. Explain how and why they would impact a forecast. Examples are weather conditions, government regulations, war, political unrest, etc. A business forecast could be severely affected by any sort of unpredictable and often unpreventable environmental circumstance. Several of these environmental conditions that would be detrimental for forecasting would be such events as weather conditions, economic unrest, and war. Weather conditions, although they can be predicted to a certain degree, often cannot be prevented. For example, natural disasters may occur, which would deter any company’s forecast. Another environmental impediment could arise from economic unrest. In such a case there may be unregulated episodes of inflation or unemployment, which could be detrimental to a business’s clientele and overall output. Next, the effects of war can take a company’s forecast for a spin, especially because the beginning and duration of a war can very often be unpredictable and its results very negative. Weather conditions can be detrimental for a company in regards to output. For example, something as common as a snow storm can deter deliveries for a business that does deliveries. This event may in term mean the waste of certain products that the company was counting on delivering in order to make...
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...1. A typical sales forecast, though concerned with future events, will usually be based on recent historical trends and events as well as on forecasts of economic prospects. a. True b. False 2. Errors in the sales forecast can be offset by similar errors in costs and income forecasts. Thus, as long as the errors are not large, sales forecast accuracy is not critical to the firm. a. True b. False 3. As a firm's sales grow its current asset accounts tend to increase. For instance, as sales increase the firm's inventories increase and its level of accounts payable will increase. Thus, spontaneously generated funds will arise from transaction accounts that increase as sales increase. a. True b. False 4. The term "spontaneously generated funds" generally refers to increases in the cash account that result from growth in sales, assuming the firm is operating with a positive profit margin. a. True b. False 5. An increase in the firm's inventory balance will normally require additional financing unless the increase is matched by an equally large decrease in some other asset account. a. True b. False 6. One of the key steps in the development of pro forma financial statements is to identify those assets and liabilities which increase spontaneously with net income. a. True b. False 7. Pro forma financial statements, as discussed in the text, are used primarily to assess a...
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...Abstract Forecasts are extensively used to support business decisions and direct the work of operations managers. The two major types of forecasts are qualitative and quantitative. Within each of these types are multiple methods and models. Qualitative forecasts are based upon subjective data. Quantitative forecasts are derived from objective data. Both methods are not suitable for all situations and circumstances. Each has inherent strengths and weaknesses. The forecaster must understand the strengths and shortcomings of each method and choose appropriately. One example of forecasting is the United States Marine Corps use of forecasting techniques, both qualitative and quantitative, to predict ammunition requirements. Forecasting Defined Forecasting is “A statement about the future†(Anonymous, 2005). Operations management is designed to support forecasted performances and events. Specifically, operations managers allocate personnel, time, and resources in order to meet the demands of forecasts. The most successful companies achieve their results by assuming just such a proactive vice reactive posture. While forecasting is widely used, it does not fit into a standard one size fits all model. Multiple proven methods and models exist. In this paper we will examine, compare, and contrast the two most commonly used methods, qualitative and quantitative forecasting. Lastly, as a case study, we will examine how the United States Marine Corps forecasts its fiscal year ammunition...
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...milestones 3 Marketing 3 Sales 3 Customer management and retention 3 Pricing 3 The competitive landscape 3 The industry 3 Target market 3 The competition 3 Financial forecasts 3 Set-up costs 3 Profit and loss forecast 3 Cash flow forecast 3 Balance sheet forecast 3 Break-even analysis 3 Brief about Phoenix We are inspired by few messages…. “Young people should be at the forefront of global change and innovation. Empowered, they can be key agents for development and peace. “—Kofi Annan “Revolution is always brought about by the youth” Phoenix media understands the combination of Rationality & Emotionality that runs into the minds of the customers & through structured Creative thinking delivers solutions that are relevant to your Business & thus optimizes the organization’s Return on investment. Our clients would be our best judge and testimonial. Our success is vowed only to them and only they can help us grow gradually. Our soul motto is to satisfy our customers emotionally, creatively We operate out of Bangalore and would like to expand places. We have in our arsenal top guns who are thorough professionals in the area of concept development, copywriting, event managements, designing, visualizing etc. We are a media and marketing agency, gleaming with confidence, bubbling with young blood, we believe that one person with passion...
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...Your company received a contract to supply components to a German manufacturer. Discuss the various approaches available to help you accurately forecast exchange rates. Identify the implications of exchange-rate changes on the company’s marketing, production and financial decisions. The CFO of the company that exports export supply components to German manufacture should consider the variety of factors including exchange rates while estimating the budget for the coming year. Since the business of the company involved in exporting the supply material to Germany on contract basis in future, the company CFO need to forecast exchange rates as part of their pricing decision, choice of the currency (whether deal with dollars, or Euros) and hedging strategies to establish accurate budget for the project. In the process, the CFO can forecast exchange rates by using either of two approaches: fundamental forecasting or technical forecasting (Daniels, Radebaugh & Sullivan, 2011). Fundamental forecasting predicts the future exchange rates on the basis of trends in the economic variables. The managers in the company can make use of econometric model by feeding the data to get the more subjective analysis. Technical forecasting uses the past trends in the exchange rates to determine the future trends in the rates. It presumes that the current exchange rates reflect all the facts in the market and future rates will follow the same patterns under similar circumstances. The researchers...
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...Introduction This paper aims to investigate the relationship between an analyst and a management and to see if there is a correlation between each of their actions. For example, managers tend to disclose and attribute outside negative factors as a way to explain a low profit period. If analysts believe in the explanation and deems it as plausible and truthful, they predict higher future earnings and stock valuations than if the managers had not provided an explanation. Similarly, if analysts found the disclosure to be implausible and discredited, they would forecast lower earnings and valuations for the company. Although analysts have been offering predictions on company futures for several decades, there’s been a recent increase in the legitimacy. Financial statements and earnings announcements are public and easily located on the sec.gov/ website, but it seems that users would rather trust an analyst with experience than the financial statements themselves. With the increase in popularity - most likely due to the ease of accessibility - shareholders and potential investors have also grown more dependent and reliant on the analysts and their analysis. Conflict of Interests With the majority of financial analysts working in banks, pension funds, and other businesses, they are able to have a thorough understanding of what the 10-K can disclose. Many times, their analysis of a company are so accredited and deemed “trustworthy” that it is published in major news outlets...
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...ORIGINAL RESEARCH FORECASTING SIGNIFICANT SOCIETAL EVENTS USING THE EMBERS STREAMING PREDICTIVE ANALYTICS SYSTEM Andy Doyle,1 Graham Katz,1 Kristen Summers,1 Chris Ackermann,1 Ilya Zavorin,1 Zunsik Lim,1 Sathappan Muthiah,2 Patrick Butler,2 Nathan Self,2 Liang Zhao,2 Chang-Tien Lu,2 Rupinder Paul Khandpur,2 Youssef Fayed,3 and Naren Ramakrishnan2 Abstract Developed under the Intelligence Advanced Research Project Activity Open Source Indicators program, Early Model Based Event Recognition using Surrogates (EMBERS) is a large-scale big data analytics system for forecasting significant societal events, such as civil unrest events on the basis of continuous, automated analysis of large volumes of publicly available data. It has been operational since November 2012 and delivers approximately 50 predictions each day for countries of Latin America. EMBERS is built on a streaming, scalable, loosely coupled, shared-nothing architecture using ZeroMQ as its messaging backbone and JSON as its wire data format. It is deployed on Amazon Web Services using an entirely automated deployment process. We describe the architecture of the system, some of the design tradeoffs encountered during development, and specifics of the machine learning models underlying EMBERS. We also present a detailed prospective evaluation of EMBERS in forecasting significant societal events in the past 2 years. Introduction Anticipatory intelligence is considered to be one of the next frontiers...
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... What is the company’s progress towards these goals? Identify key performance gaps? A Fixed Base Operator (FBO) is a business that provides services at the 20,000 airports in the USA. They operate flight training schools, provide aircraft repairs and maintenance, provide fuel and provide pilot support with weather and flight planning facilities. As such they are the backbone of general aviation. Airport Tenant – An airport tenant is a person, firm, or corporation leasing or using airport property solely for the purpose of storing an aircraft and is not engaged in or providing any aviation related commercial activity or service at the airport. An airport tenant is not authorized to function as or provide the services of an FBO Current Products and Services With committed capital and deep industry experience in general aviation services transactions (having closed over thirty transactions in the last fifteen years), we can move quickly and discreetly with minimum disruption of day to day operations. Ideal FBO acquisition candidates will have: • Annual general aviation fuel uplift in excess of one million gallons • Long term lease rights at its airport operating location • Ancillary business segments such as maintenance and charter will be considered but should be anchored by a strong core line service segment • Both single operations and multi-location chains will be considered . The financial backing of Moelis Capital Partners affords us the wherewithal to...
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...problems with its application and the complexity of predicting the labour market has led many to take the view that forecasting is neither useful nor necessary (Taylor 2010). Forecasting is a key aspect of Human Resource Planning (HRP); which can be a complex process especially during periods of economic uncertainty and fluctuation. This intensifies the pressures between the need for planning and the difficulties of prediction. Nevertheless, the fundamental purpose is simple: HRP is concerned with assessing and meeting an organisation’s current and future workforce needs. This ensures the right number of people with the appropriate skills and competencies are in the right jobs at the right time and at the right cost so as to achieve organisational objectives (Foot and Hook 2005). In presenting a balanced view, this essay will analyse the argument for and against HRP in determining if it is unfeasible for organisations to accurately forecast the demand for and supply of labour. Furthermore, how HRP can inform other Human Resource (HR) activities such as recruitment and selection (R&S), succession planning, performance management and training and development amongst others. Specific reference where appropriate will be demonstrated to showcase links between theoretical and practical context. Forecasting as a key element of HRP As organisations continue to evolve and become more dynamic, it can be argued that effective planning of its most important resource (its workforce)...
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...This method is based on a combination of intuition, insight, and luck. Psychics and crystal ball readers are the most extreme case of genius forecasting. Their forecasts are based exclusively on intuition. Science fiction writers have sometimes described new technologies with uncanny accuracy. There are many examples where men and women have been remarkable successful at predicting the future. There are also many examples of wrong forecasts. The weakness in genius forecasting is that its impossible to recognize a good forecast until the forecast has come to pass. Some psychic individuals are capable of producing consistently accurate forecasts. Mainstream science generally ignores this fact because the implications are simply to difficult to accept. Our current understanding of reality is not adequate to explain this phenomena. Trend extrapolation - These methods examine trends and cycles in historical data, and then use mathematical techniques to extrapolate to the future. The assumption of all these techniques is that the forces responsible for creating the past, will continue to operate in the future. This is often a valid assumption when forecasting short term horizons, but it falls short when creating medium and long term forecasts. The further out we attempt to forecast, the less certain we become of the forecast. The stability of the environment is the key factor in determining whether trend extrapolation is an appropriate forecasting model. The concept of "developmental...
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...Assignment Chapter 14 True/False Indicate whether the statement is true or false. __F__ 1. Pro forma financial statements, as discussed in the text, are used primarily to assess a firm's historical performance. __T__ 2. The first, and most critical, step in constructing a set of pro forma financial statements is the sales forecast. __T__ 3. A typical sales forecast, though concerned with future events, will usually be based on recent historical trends and events as well as on forecasts of economic prospects. __F__ 4. Errors in the sales forecast can be offset by similar errors in costs and income forecasts. Thus, as long as the errors are not large, sales forecast accuracy is not critical to the firm. __T__ 5. As a firm's sales grow, its current assets also tend to increase. For instance, as sales increase, the firm's inventories generally increase, and purchases of inventories result in more accounts payable. Thus, spontaneously generated funds arise from transactions brought on by sales increases. __T__ 6. The term "spontaneously generated funds" generally refers to increases in the cash account that result from growth in sales, assuming the firm is operating with a positive profit margin. __F_ 7. A rapid build-up of inventories normally requires additional financing, unless the increase is matched by an equally large decrease in some other asset. ((( Increase in liabilities to suppliers) __F__ 8. If a firm wants to maintain its ratios...
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...In 1927, John Willard Marriott and his wife founded Marriott International. The history of Marriott started with a root beer and the first hotel was opened in Arlington, Virginia in 1957. In 1995, Ritz-Carlton Hotel Company became a part of Marriott International after an acquisition. Today, the company is one of the largest company with more than 4000 properties and almost 700 000 rooms in over 80 countries around the world. In order to target and satisfy every customer, Marriott offers 16 hotel brands which are divided to 6 segments: * Luxury: the Ritz-Carlton, JW Marriott…) * Lifestyle Collection: Edition, Renaissance, Autograph Collection Hotels… * Classic, Signature: Marriott Hotels * Select Service: Courtyard, Fairfield… * Extended Stay: Residence Inn, Marriott Executive Apartments… * Destination Entertainment: Gaylord Hotels… Marriott International operates and franchised hotels and licenses vacation ownership resorts, its culture embraces excellence and communication and technological innovations. In the late 1980s, after the successful implementation of Revenue Management in Airlines, Marriott has led the hotel industry in the practice of Revenue Management. It became an early pioneer of Revenue Management in hospitality. They developed a system named One Yield, which focused on improving hotel profits by timing price increases and promotions as well as using inventory controls. In addition, Marriott has also developed the Demand Forecasting...
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...Managerial Economics Sat. 11:00 – 14:00 Demand Estimation and Forecasting Facilitators : Mr. John Michael G. Favila Mr. Jose Miguel G. Catan Learning Objectives * Identify a wide range of Demand Estimation and Forecast Methods. * Understand the nature of Demand Function * Understand that the Demand Estimation and Forecasting is all about minimizing risk. Demand Estimation and Demand Forecasting; distinguished. * Demand Estimation attempts to quantify the link between the level of for a product and the variables which determines it whereas the Demand Forecasting simply attempts to predict the level of sales at some particular future date. 7 stages of Demand Estimation 1. Statement of a Theory or Hypothesis : This usually comes from a mixture of economic Theory and previous empherical studies. 2. Model Specification : This means determining what variables should be included in the demand model and what mathematical form or forms such a relationship should take. 3. Data Collection : Gathering necessary information. a. Cross-sectional data : Provide information on a group opf entities at a given time. b. Time-serie data: Provide information on the entity over time. i. Quantitative: Data that are expressed in nominal in either ordinal or cardinal. ii. Qualitative: Expressed in categories. 4. Estimation of Parameters : This means computing the value of the coefficient...
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