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Davos Forum

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Submitted By cchoi05
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The signs of greater confidence in the economic and equity outlook lend an upbeat tone to this week’s five-day gathering in Davos, Switzerland of 2,500 executives, policy makers, investors and academics. Delegates include German Chancellor Angela Merkel and European Central Bank President Mario Draghi, both of whom won praise in the poll. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (GS) Chief Executive Officer Lloyd Blankfein and billionaire investor George Soros will also be there.
“There’s a great sense of relief we dodged a lot of bullets in 2012 -- we didn’t go off the fiscal cliff in the U.S., Europe didn’t have a meltdown and China didn’t have a hard landing,” said Nariman Behravesh, chief economist at IHS Inc. (IHS) in Lexington, Massachusetts, who will be in Davos. “There are definitely pockets of good news with recoveries in North America and parts of Asia gathering momentum.”
U.S. economic activity picked up across much of the country last month, boosted by automobile and home sales, the Federal Reserve said on Jan. 16 in its Beige Book survey of business conditions.
U.S. Effect
The improvement in the U.S. is having a “positive effect throughout the world,” according to Sriram Srinivasan, chief executive officer of Wall Street Investment Management in Chantilly, Virginia, and a poll respondent.
The global economy is in its best shape since May 2011, according to the survey, with 35 percent of those contacted saying it is getting better. That’s about twice the number who say the outlook is worsening. European investors were the most upbeat; U.S. respondents the least.
“The positive wealth effect caused by rising stock markets creates a big global confidence boost,” Srinivasan said in an e-mail.
Equity market gains are expected to be widespread. More than three-in-five surveyed forecast the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index (SPX) and the MSCI Asia Pacific Index (MXAP) will be higher six months from now. The U.S. index closed at a five-year high of 1,485.98 in New York on Jan. 18 and the Asian gauge rose 0.3 percent today as of 3:57 p.m. in Tokyo.
Abe’s Election
Perceptions about Japan’s prospects have brightened considerably following the election of Shinzo Abe as prime minister last month. Abe has pledged to revitalize the Japanese economy through both fiscal and monetary means, a program generally

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