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Deans Food

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Submitted By kushi1007
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Deans Foods Company, NYSE: DF
Securities Analysis
Professor: Paul Tovbin
Keller University
By: Roy Gavra
12/14/2012

Table of content The background of Deans Foods Company with a life cycle analysis……………..…………….3
Return on Equity……………………………………………………………………………….…4
Deans Foods Company projected future growth rate of earnings…………………………………5
An analysis of its required rate of return using the CAPM measurement………………………...5
Deans Foods Company intrinsic value using the discount valuation techniques…………………6
Refernces………………………………………………………………………………………….7

The background of Deans Foods Company with a life cycle analysis
According to Reuters Dean Foods Company, incorporated in 1994. The stock is traded in the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) under the symbol DF. As of December 14th 2012 the stock value is $16.46. The company is a food and beverage company. Dean Foods Company operates through two segments: Fresh Dairy Direct-Morningstar and WhiteWave-Alpro. Dean Foods Fresh Dairy segment is domestically processor and distributor of dairy products, the company sells its products through over 50 local and regional brands. Also, the company sells it product under range of private labels. The WhiteWave-Alpro segments emphasis Soy based products, the WhiteWave-Alpro very active in the International markets as well. When assessing the company life cycle stage will look on the industry and on the company performance. The recession proof industry is it in Maturity stage, with exception to the product packaging that support industry growth. In the last five years Deans Foods Company paid dividends only in 2007 ($15.00 per share) and is not planning for dividends distribution in the next coming years. In the last three years the company’s stock declined from $18.23 (December 18th 2009) to $7.31 (December 3rd 2010), and showed signs of recovery since then and climbed back to $16.46. Dean Foods’ life cycle is in the Maturity stage, the company’s products became standardized, the profit margin declined and major source of revenue coming from “Cash cows” like LAND O LAKES coffee creamers. The food processing industry and the companies operates in this industry are assumed to be non-cyclical due to stable demand.

Return on Equity (REO)
The ROE is the ratio of net profits to common equity, according to Zvi Bodie the ROE is one of the two basic factors in determining a firm’s growth rate of earnings. Further, while an increase of the ROE doesn’t imply future growth a decline in the company’s ROE suggests a declining ROE in the future as well. ROE is the company Net Income divided by the Shareholder’s Equity. The selected financial data attached from the company 2011 Annual report. Based on the data from the company annual report the firm shows a negative ROE $1,575,631/$103,398= -15.238.
(Financial Reporting , 2012)
Deans Foods Company projected future growth rate of earnings
The dividends discount model (DDM) is a formula for the intrinsic value of a firm equal to the present value of all expected future dividends. The attached Constant-Growth DDM formula can’t be used due the dividends history and the latest company announcement regards dividends (Not planning to paid dividends in the following years).

(Zvi Bodie 400)

Required rate of return using the CAPM measurement

CAPM Rs = Rf + beta (Rm - Rf) is the formula to find the expected return using CAPM,
DF beta is 0.72
Rf is Ten year US Treasury rate 1.702%
Rm is the S&P 500 ytd return 12.04%
Rs= 1.702+0.72*(12.04-1.702)= 9.14536

Deans Foods Company intrinsic value using the discount valuation techniques
Expected HPR= E(r)= (E(D1)+[E(p1)-Po])/Po
D1=0
Po=16.46 P1=16.46+Rs=16.46*1.0914536=17.965
E(r)=(0+(17.965-16.46))/16.46=1.505/16.46=0.091=9.1%
9.1%<9.146536% the E(r) is slightly smaller than the Required return, also the security future cash flow is 0 therefore the investment recommendation for this security is to be as less as possible if any.

References

Dean Foods Co (DF) Company Profile. (2012, December). Retrieved December 9, 2012, from reuters: http://www.reuters.com/finance/stocks/companyProfile?rpc=66&symbol=DF
Financial Reporting . (2012, April 13). Retrieved December 12, 2012, from Dean Foods Company: http://deanfoods.com/our-company/investor-relations/financial-reporting.aspx

Zvi Bodie. Essentials of Investments, 8th Edition. McGraw-Hill Learning Solutions, 2010. <vbk:0077586662#outline(13.3.2)>.
Zvi Bodie. Essentials of Investments, 8th Edition. McGraw-Hill Learning Solutions, 2010. <vbk:0077586662#outline(13.3.1)>.

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