...Modeling Theory Instructor: Philip McIntire July 27, 2013 The environment in which decisions must be made is more complex than ever before. Informed consumers, employees, and shareholders demand greater public consciousness, responsibility, and accountability from corporate and governmental decision makers. Decision analysis captures the dynamic nature of decision processes by prescribing a decision strategy that indicates what action should be chosen initially and what further actions should be selected for each subsequent event that could occur. For instance, a decision strategy might suggest an initial test market for a new product and then, based on the results, either cancel the product, initiate further testing, or begin a full scale marketing and sales effort. Thus, in describing the alternatives, one must simultaneously specify the decision points, events that may occur between them, and the information that can be learned in the process. Decision analysis can be divided into four steps: structuring the problem; formulating inference and preference models; eliciting proba- bilities and utilities; and exploring the numerical model results. Structuring the problem is the most important and difficult part of the analysis process. Trees are the most common decision analytic structures. Decision trees are produced by algorithms that identify various ways of splitting a data set into branch-like segments. These segments form an inverted decision tree that...
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...Theories of Systems Analysis and Design for Integrated Business Solutions Xin Tian Herzing University Theories of Systems Analysis and Design for Integrated Business Solutions Introduction The word system comes from the Greek work “systema” defined as an organized relationship among functioning components or units. Business system analysis and design breaks down the entity’s components into its basic constituents for the purpose of studying how each component works with other components in the fulfillment of the business purpose (Grady, 2007). Business system analysis and design entails identifying the goals of an enterprise. Next, the analyst develops systems that will fulfill these goals through studying the basic components of the system with the aim of fulfilling the business’ goals in an efficient way. The analysis aspect of the system deals with what the systems should do while the design part outlines how the system will fulfill its purpose. A basic system will consists of two or several interrelated constituents. Each element of the system will consist of three properties. 1) Each component affects the functioning of the entire system. 2. Each component is affected by at least one other component in the system. 3. All subsystems of the components have the first two properties. Systems analysis and design for integrated business solutions entail three levels. The first level is the...
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...study of quantitative techniques in business decision-making. The course covers linear programming models and its special algorithms; network (PERT/CPM) models; decision-making theories and processes; and decision tree construction and analysis. LEARNING OUTCOMES (LO): On completion of the course, the student is expected to be able to do the following: |ELGA |LEARNING OUTCOME | |Effective communicators |To present in class the application of quantitative techniques to management decision | | |models through case analysis | |Critical and creative thinkers |To develop analytical thinking and proper reasoning in the application of quantitative | | |techniques to management decision models | | |To acquire the essential skills for the proper use of quantitative techniques in | | |business decision-making | |Technically proficient and competent |To identify the various mathematical tools used in business decision-making | |professionals and leaders...
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...‘Decisions involving huge outlays of capital are almost always classic gut decisions: they involve risky, inherently ambiguous judgements between unclear alternatives.’ Do you agree? Justify your answer using decision-making theory and relevant examples from at least two industries. With the development of globalisation, numerous international business and investors come across decision-making every day, and sometimes need to discover solutions for high capital investment in different environments. Some people suggest that most of those decisions are generated out of top managers’ intuition to make vague directions in uncertain environments. This essay argues Managerial decision making consists of intuitive thinking and systematic thinking: both are important but more systematic thinking should be used particularly in decision making of huge capital outlays. This essay will demonstrate the argument by defining relationship among decision, information and environment; strengths and issues of gut decision (intuitive thinking), systematic thinking; in addition, intuitive and systematic thinking are supported by theories through historical and current approaches and industrial applications respectively. First of all, the availability of information influences outcome of decision making. “Decision” (Schermerhorn Jr, Davidson, Poole, Simon, Woods, and Chau 2011p.70), is to choose the most suitable way of sequence of activities. In management theory, Schermerhorn et al. (2011)...
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...NY: Wiley. (pp. 913-915). MANAGEMENT DECISION MAKING A major concern in management has been to understand and improve decision making. Various approaches have been proposed by psychologists, most based on a “divide-and-conquer” strategy. This strategy – also labeled “problem decomposition” – involves breaking a large decision problem into smaller parts. The idea is not new: In a “Letter to Joseph Priestly,” Benjamin Franklin was one of the first to describe a decomposition strategy. The theoretical justification for this approach was outlined by Simon (1957) in his account of “bounded rationality.” This concept says that cognitive processing limitations leave humans with little option but to construct simplified mental models of the world. As Simon (p. 198) put it, a person “behaves rationally with respect to this model . . . (although) such behavior is not even approximately optimal with respect to the real world.” There have been two approaches to management decision making (Huber, 1980). The first is concerned with development and application of normative decision rules based on formal logic derived from economics or statistics. The second involves descriptive accounts of how people actually go about making judgments, decisions, and choices. NORMATIVE ANALYSES As initially outlined by von Neumann and Morgenstern (1947) in Theory of games and economic behavior, a variety of techniques have been derived for making optimal decisions. A distinction is often drawn between riskless...
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...REPORTING Economic evaluation using decision analytical modelling: design, conduct, analysis, and reporting Evidence relating to healthcare decisions often comes from more than one study. Decision analytical modelling can be used as a basis for economic evaluations in these situations. Stavros Petrou professor of health economics 1, Alastair Gray professor of health economics 2 1 Clinical Trials Unit, Warwick Medical School, University of Warwick, Coventry CV4 7AL, UK; 2Health Economics Research Centre, Department of Public Health, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK Economic evaluations are increasingly conducted alongside randomised controlled trials, providing researchers with individual patient data to estimate cost effectiveness.1 However, randomised trials do not always provide a sufficient basis for economic evaluations used to inform regulatory and reimbursement decisions. For example, a single trial might not compare all the available options, provide evidence on all relevant inputs, or be conducted over a long enough time to capture differences in economic outcomes (or even measure those outcomes).2 In addition, reliance on a single trial may mean ignoring evidence from other trials, meta-analyses, and observational studies. Under these circumstances, decision analytical modelling provides an alternative framework for economic evaluation. Decision analytical modelling compares the expected costs and consequences of decision options by synthesising information from...
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...Management Theory Analysis Management has been the back bone of the workforce industries. Management is the overall maintenance of an organization or people. The word management is the act or skill in managing an organization. There is no management without managers. Managers wear different hats in an organization depending on the tasks they are to manage. The word manager was defined in Webster’s Universal College Dictionary (p. 489) as “a person who manages an enterprise or one of its parts. A person who directs the activities of an organization or a group” (Webster's Universal College Dictionary, 2004). Mintzberg (2009) defines the manager as someone responsible for a whole organization or some identifiable part of it (Mintzberg, 2009). Managers see to the development of the organization and the people they work with. They are responsible for the growth, organizational culture, values, goals, and decision making of the organization. They are in charge of the operation and performances of the people they work with. Management theories helps managers in decision making, implementing plans, and accomplish their goals. There are different theories for each professional areas, and managers adopt a theory that fit their managerial style. Being able to analyze problem, identify the solution for the problem, and make the right decision is very crucial in managing an organization. This is why managers need the help of theorists and their theories in order to achieve...
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...programming, Classic transportation problem, LP formulation, Solution using MS Excel Text: BRS 5.1, 5.2, 5.3 Class 2: Transportation Problem (cont.) Basic feasible solution of TP, properties, Analysis of Excel output, Sensitivity analysis Text: BRS 5.1, 5.2, 5.3 Class 3: Transshipment problem Formulation of LP model, different variations (unbalanced case, combining with production scheduling, multi-modal and multi-SKU transportation), Conversion of transshipment model into classic transportation model. Text: BRS 5.4, 5.5 Class 4: Assignment problem Binary ILP formulation, solution by Hungarian method Text: BRS 5.6 Class 5: Network models Shortest path problem, Minimal spanning tree Text: BRS 5.8, 5.9 Class 6: Game theory Introduction to game theory: Types of game, Two person zero-sum game, concept of saddle point, dominance rule Text: WW 14.1, 14.2 Class 7: Game theory (contd.) Mixed startegy, Linear programming formulation Text: WW 14.2, 14.3 Class 8: Mid-term Test Class 9: Markov chain Introduction to stochastic processes, markov chains, transition probability matrix, steadystate probabilities. Text: Handouts and WW 17.1, 17.2, 17.3 Class 10: Decision theory Decision making under uncertainty, Decision criteria, Decision Tree Text: BRs 8.1, 8.2, 8.3, 8.4, 8.6 Class 11: Decision theory (contd.) Decision making under risk, EVPI, EVSI Text: 8.5, 8.8, 8.9 Class 12: Travelling Salesman Problem Optimization model formulation, solution approaches, Branch and bound algorithm Text: handouts...
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...Clark-Robinson Khanya Clark-Robinson Final Paper Kahneman1, Daniel and Tversky, Amos. (1979). “Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision under Risk.” 1. Big Question The big question of this article is how people make decisions under uncertainty of risks and rewards. Decisions under risks assume that a decision can be quantified as a positive or negative outcome with quantifiable probability. This theory was developed for monetary decisions and the process observations can be included in other fields; fields such as social sciences and policy making. 2. Background Information The standard for analyzing decisions was the theory that quantified the outcome and probability. A reasonable individual will choose the option with the best utility. The probability results should all add up to 100%. The utility theory has a defined logical foundation and it represents a behavior with uncertainty and a variety of decisions. At this time it is the approved method that evaluated decisions in science. Although it is utilized in science it lacks the human psychology that enables real life decisions. 3. Limitations of previous work. The expected utility theory fails in certain types of situations. An example would be insurance companies that utilize the expected utility theory. The profits are generated comes from consumers who make their decisions and they have to...
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...Research Methods for Strategic Managers to Aid in Decision Making Abstract [P1] Managers can be trained to make better decisions. They also need a supportive environment where they won’t be unfairly criticised for making wrong decisions and will receive proper support from their colleague and superiors. A climate of criticism and fear stifles risk-taking and creativity; managers will respond by ‘playing it safe’ to minimise the risk of criticism which diminishes the business’ effectiveness in responding to market changes. It may also mean managers spend too much time trying to pass the blame around rather than getting on with running the business. The study is based on all-embracing research to assemble information from a variety of sources such as internet, interview and books. The research was conducting on the decision making in the different economic scenario data was collected and results were evaluated. Introduction [P1] [1.1] Some decisions are difficult because of the need to take into account how other people in the situation will respond to the decision that is taken. The analysis of such social decisions is more often treated under the label of game theory, rather than decision theory, though it involves the same mathematical methods. From the standpoint of game theory most of the problems treated in decision theory are one-player games (or the one player is viewed as playing against an impersonal background situation). In the emerging socio-cognitive engineering...
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...Decision making is the process of choosing among alternative courses of action for the purpose of attaining a certain goal. In this paper I am going to scrutinise a number of courses offered in four different disciplines within a business school and identify how these courses relate with decision making. The conclusions are presented in tabular form. IVEY Business School and The University of Pennsylvania were my source of information. There school of Business offers many different courses all of them lying under or comprising of the different disciplines that are found in business school. Some of these include: i. Business, Economics and Public Policy Course Relation to Decision making Focus Computerized support Intro to Business Economics Explores the economics and politics of public policy to provide the student with an analytic framework. Policy issues relating to taxation, social security, low-income assistance. High Financing and Managing Government Covers cost-benefit evaluations which influence decision making. Role of public policy in affecting the efficiency of markets and the distribution of resources in society. High. Economic Analysis of Law Teaches students how to think as an economist about legal rules and evaluate alternative legal rules. Interpretation of legal rules Moderate Behavioural Economics, Markets, and Public Policy Applies insights from psychology to the study of economic phenomena and decision making. How psychology plays out in markets, where...
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...“A Communication Event Analysis: Functional Group Theory within a Fundraising Committee” Sometimes problem-solving can be more successfully executed when there is more than one brain working towards a solution. By working within a group, one can also have the ability to see possible perils that personal biases could have otherwise delayed. The Functional Group Communications Theory can mainly be correlated to researchers, Dennis Gouran and Randy Hirokawa. Gouran and Hirokawa suggest that there are influences that correspond with the origination of the theory: John Dewey’s reflective thinking study, Robert Bales’ Interaction Process explorations, and research on Vigilant Decision Making completed by Irving Janis ( (Salazar). Hirokawa addresses valuable resolutions, and Gouran discusses applicable decisions. This theory demonstrates the insight of collaborative communication (Hirokawa). The Functional Theory of Effective group decision making is not essentially effected by what communication behaviors are being implemented, but more so the degree in which the correspondents are communicatively addressing matters (Littlejohn). In 1983, Hirokawa and Gouran developed four functions, termed “functional requisites” that a group should do to make an effective decision (Salazar). The first of these is to analyze the problem, once the problem has been identified then goals should be set, once goals are presented then the group should identify alternative...
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...TOPic: DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEMS: AN OVERVIEW AND ITS ROLE IN BUSINESS Introduction A decision support system (DSS) is a computer-based information system that supports business or organizational decision-making activities. DSSs serve the management, operations, and planning levels of an organization and help to make decisions, which may be rapidly changing and not easily specified in advance. Typical information that a decision support application might gather and present are: * Inventories of information assets (including legacy and relational data sources, cubes, data warehouses, and data marts), * Comparative sales figures between one period and the next, * Projected revenue figures based on product sales assumptions. Making decisions concerning complex systems (e.g., the management of organizational operations, industrial processes, or investment portfolios; the command and control of military units; or the control of nuclear power plants) often strains our cognitive capabilities. Even though individual interactions among a system's variables may be well understood, predicting how the system will react to an external manipulation such as a policy decision is often difficult. What will be, for example, the effect of introducing the third shift on a factory floor? One might expect that this will increase the plant's output by roughly 50 percent. Factors such as additional wages, machine weardown, maintenance breaks, raw material usage, supply logistics, and...
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...Predicting Preferences Prediction involves making a statement concerning the likely value of an event or action uncertain or unknown at the time of the statement. Since the theory of probability, (inaugurated by the French mathematicians Blaise Pascal and Pierre Fermat in 1654), was developed to quantify uncertain events in terms of their likelihood of occurrence, formal prediction is now viewed as a mathematical topic involving probabilistic modeling. Indeed, the mathematician Karl Pearson said in 1907 that the fundamental problem in statistics is prediction. Prediction, however, is usually not an end goal itself, but rather means to put probabilistic bounds on the relative frequency or likelihood of occurrence of future uncertain events so that strategies or actions can be taken incorporating these predictions. Risk management needs predictive analysis, as does economic regulation, engineering control, and marketing effectiveness. This latter use of prediction often involves predicting an individual’s choice (or group’s choice) or preference over alterative options. Preference can be conceptualized as an individual’s (or group’s) attitude concerning a set of objects, and is usually formulated within a choice making context (i.e., X is preferred to Y if one would choose X over Y). In this way choice and preference are linked, and predicting preferences is akin to predicting choices. An auxiliary question is to formulate models that explain “why” or “how” the choices...
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...BACHELOR OF COMMERCE (B.COM.,) PAPER – 2.1 MANAGERIAL ECONOMICS UNIT – I CHAPTER - I SECTION - I Definition of Managerial Economics Managerial economics refers to those aspects of economics and its tools of analysis most relevant to the firm’s decision-making process. According to MeNair and Meriam, managerial economies consists of the use of economic models of thought to analyze business situations. Some writers consider managerial economics as the integration of economic theory with business practice for the purpose of facilitating decision-making and forward planning by management. The underlying idea of all these definitions is that managerial economics means economics applied in decision-making. So we may consider managerial economics as a special branch of economics bridging the gap between abstract theory and managerial practice. It may be pointed out here that effective decision-making at the firms’ level calls for a careful analysis of a choice between alternative courses of action. Economic theory offers a variety of concepts and analytical tools which can be of considerable assistance to the manager in his decision-making process. In fact actual problem-solving may require many skills and tools which are not available in the traditional economist’s. For example, knowledge of accounting and of statistical concepts and methods, which are not taught in economics, can help the analyses to apply more effectively the economic...
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