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JOURNAL OF MULTI-CRITERIA DECISION ANALYSIS, VOL 5,

39-57

(1996)

Multi-Attribute Decision Support in the Event of a Nuclear Accident
SIMON FRENCH
School of Computer Studies, University of Leeds, Leeds LS2 9Jb U.K.

ABSTRACT Retrospective studies of nuclear accidents such as those at Three Mile Island and Chernobyl have emphasized the need for preparing structured decision support methodologies for use in any future emergency. This paper discusses the multi-attribute aspects of such decision support, i.e. methods for supporting decisions when there are several conflicting objectives. Considerable progress has been made in application of these methods over the past 4 or 5 years. In particular, the decision-conferencing format has proved successful in helping senior decision makers understand and deal with the issues that arise in considering long-term countermeasures made. Within the RODOS project, a European initiative to build a decision support system for emergency response, multi-attribute value and utility techniques for short-term and medium-term countermeasures are being developed. However, much remains to be done, particularly in relation to the incorporation of uncertainty when there is a risk of an imminent accident.
KEY WORDS:

Bayesian decision analysis; decision support for environmental emergencies; decision trees; multi-attribute resource allocation; multi-attribute utility analysis; multi-attribute value analysis; radiation protection decisions; RODOS

1. INTRODUCTION Major nuclear accidents such as those at Three Mile Island and Chernobyl have focused attention on the need for coherent decision support decision making on countermeasures. I became involved in such matters during the International Chernobyl Project which was run during 1990-1991; see Section 2. The Project demonstrated that decisions on countermeasures are driven not

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