McKinsey Consumer & Shopper Insights

Meet the 2020 Chinese Consumer

McKinsey Insights China

McKinsey Consumer & Shopper Insights

March 2012

Meet the 2020 Chinese Consumer

Yuval Atsmon Max Magni Lihua Li Wenkan Liao

The authors gratefully acknowledge the assistance of their colleagues: Molly Liu, Cherie Zhang, Barry Liu, Rachel Zheng, Justin Peng, William Cheng, Glenn Leibowitz, Joanne Mason.

5

Contents
Introduction 1. China at a turning point 2. Getting the basics right: changing demographics ƒ Mainstream consumers driving income growth ƒ Aging population ƒ Postponed life stages ƒ Increasingly independent women 3. Understanding the mainstream consumer: new spending patterns ƒ Growing discretionary spending ƒ Aspirations-driven trading up ƒ Emerging senior market ƒ Evolving geographic differences 4. Understanding the mainstream consumer: behavioral patterns ƒ The still-pragmatic consumer ƒ The individual consumer ƒ The increasingly loyal consumer ƒ The modern shopper 5. Preparing for the 2020 consumer: implications for companies ƒ Strategic imperatives ƒ Growth enablers Conclusion 6 8 12 13 17 18 18 20 21 22 23 24 26 27 27 28 29 34 35 37 37

Introduction

Meet the 2020 Chinese consumer

7

Most large, consumer-facing companies have long realized that they will need China’s growth to power their own in the next decade. But to keep pace, they will also need to understand the economic, societal, and demographic changes that are shaping consumers’ profiles and the way they spend. This is no easy task, not only because of the fast pace of growth and subsequent changes being wrought on the Chinese way of life, but also because there are vast economic and demographic differences across China. These are set to become more marked, with significant implications for companies that fail to grasp them. In the next decade, we believe